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Performance. is it trending to a point where we play see a gingrich pop? >> im just not making any predictions. if the guys at intrade knew their stuff all the time, they would be retired living on an unknown island. you know, this past week, i think starting with new hampshire to now, hes come across as mr. 1% not just for the democrats or occupy wall street times, but within the republican party. i think a lot of his own campaign thought it would be a cakewalk. he still will have to come out a...

You still have conservatives saying -- and his. i want to look at this, david, talking about money here and mitt romney. weve been following his stock on intrade.com, following the price that traders are attributing to a possible win. if you look at this chart here, it follows what happened just left. on the left-hand side, this is early in the morning. on this side, its at the close of yesterday. let me clear this out here, when rick perry announced that he was dropping out thats whether hi s...

So do you think charles is right, these other things, more intangible things take over in the closing days, weeks before the iowa caucuses and the new hampshire primary? >> sure. going back to what rich said, so far the performance ft in the debate is more important than the organization on the ground. so fa far your ability to reflect the anger of the republican electorate is much more important than your experience or what the establishment thinks you can do. the one thing for mitt romney, if ...

There and slingshot into momentum in the rest of the campaign. right now mitt romney looks very effective in what he is doing. and obviously g.o.p. voters think he has a really good chance of being the nominee in the end. but they are still closing the deal. conservatives arent buying it. >> laura: didnt show up at the straw poll and again you were there. i was there. on the ground in iowa people at the time were kind of offended by that he didnt spend time in iowa. but now its kind of becoming ...

There and slingshot into momentum in the rest of the campaign. right now mitt romney looks very effective in what he is doing. and obviously g.o.p. voters think he has a really good chance of being the nominee in the end. but they are still closing the deal. conservatives arent buying it. >> laura: didnt show up at the straw poll and again you were there. i was there. on the ground in iowa people at the time were kind of offended by that he didnt spend time in iowa. but now its kind of becoming ...

There and slingshot into momentum in the rest of the campaign. right now mitt romney looks very effective in what he is doing. and obviously g.o.p. voters think he has a really good chance of being the nominee in the end. but they are still closing the deal. conservatives arent buying it. >> laura: didnt show up at the straw poll and again you were there. i was there. on the ground in iowa people at the time were kind of offended by that he didnt spend time in iowa. but now its kind of becoming ...

These two weeks sarah palins faced the toughest criticism of her political career, and it shows. last year on the betting service in ireland, intrade.com, her chance of winning the republican nomination peaked. 29%. where is it now? about half that, 14%, cut in half. sarah palins odds for the republican gold dwindled to one in seven, 14%. id say thats high. tonights big number. thats "hardball" for now. coming up next, "your business." now the healing power of touch just got more powerful. intro...

Whether we learn more solid information by the new media. anyway, for tonights "big number," a look at that democratic primary up in pennsylvania. new poll shows joe sestak the challenger beginning to overtake arlen speck ter. intrade.com is not waiting for the polls. it gives the challenger 70%, 7 in 10 chance of pulling off that big upset next tuesday, may 18th. mark your calendars. sestaks chance at change is 70% now. thats tonights "big number." up next, a hot debate from times square to t...

His campaign has not yet responded to that letter. it brings us to tonights big number. according to the oddsmakers at intrade.com, what are the chances that independent candidate charlie crist will win floridas senate seat. 35%. i think its about right. 1 in 3. sounds like about where his poll numbers are right now. 35% chance, charlie crist running as an independent will win that race for u.s. senate down in florida. i love intrade.com. theyre often right. up next, much more on the times s...

Yes, bankroll your career. for years, we put our names and credibility on the line by asking our friends to donate to you. those days are over. a point of interest, crist is not required to give back the money. he has not yet responded to that letter. it brings us to tonights big number. according to the oddsmakers at intrade.com, what are the chances that independent candidate charlie crist will win floridas senate seat. 35%. i think its about right. 1 in 3. sounds like about where his poll n...