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a member of the council of economic advisers and we had a wide-ranging conversation about what is affecting americans and the gdp report for financial america. we don t want to always interpret one quarterly or monthly number and we have volatile things, with inventory buildup and that is important is we had strong consumer spending and strong business investment. if you look at those components, which are much more kind of the core of the economy s growth, you actually get a 3.7% growth rate, so that s relatively strong. and interestingly, analysts across the board, this isn t just us, markets as understood that once you get under the hood of the report, the negatives look pretty volatile, pretty temporary, relative to the positives. so with this report, combined with, there is a warning, there are some banks, that a recession could be on the horizon. does the white house feel that?
team was talking to me this morning about that buildup, and they thought they saw, again we re going to have to see another few quarters to make sure that this is in train, they thought they saw some improvements there in the supply chain. basically you don t get an inventory buildup adding almost 5 percentage points to gdp if your supply chains are as jammed up as they have been. and we have a bunch of data from our supply chain team showing that in fact things have been moving through the ports a lot more quickly. dwell time, if i may get particularly granular, the amount of time that containers are spending in ports, it s down 60% over the past few months. goods are moving from ship to shelf. we saw that in the holiday season, and that inventory is actually a potentially positive indicator of some unsnarling of those chains. all right. jared, i appreciate your time. thank you so much. thank you. and next, a former top white house aide testifies before the
the moment is how to land the plane and get inflation down without affecting the rest of the economy. it s going to be tricky to land that plane safely and not end up in a recession. i think the bond market is showing enough of a recession indicator that by 2023 it seems pretty likely. i think it s it s certainly a non-zero probability that you get a recession in the later part of 2022. i know you say you re worried about everything. are you worried about that? well, those are some very bearish views. again, if you look at the forecast, it s nothing like that and in fact expectations for growth next year are about 4% on gdp. expectations are for the unemployment rate to continue to fall and for inflation to decelerate as well. i want to underscore something you were just talking about. you were talking about this inventory buildup. i don t want to make too much out of one quarterly data point, but in fact our supply chain
will be this year probably a little stronger than the consensus? i m not sure. i think the consensus has come down a bit in the last few weeks. i probably would have said that two months ago, fareed, but now i think after too soft employment reports, after a sense that there s been a big inventory buildup that has that will get run down and that will come at the expense of gdp, i think that actually the statistics right now and the people who base their judgments on the statistics, are actually a little more optimistic right now than the business folk i talk to who have order books, who are still fairly nervous. so i would i would say around the consensus forecast of about 3% the risks are pretty
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