Iod Status News Today

Indian seas are likely to be active basins during the 2nd week of June. The trio of El Nino, IOD and MJO has a significant role in accelerating the monsoon stream during the initial onset phase.

Global average temperatures tend to be higher in El Nino years. A spike in global temperature over ocean and land leads to an uptick in extreme heat, hazardous tropical cyclones, and disturbing ecological balance posing a serious threat to mass mortality of delicate sea life, especially fish and coral reefs.

Global average temperatures tend to be higher in El Nino years than in La Nina or ENSO-neutral years. Warm ocean conditions are not just limited to the tropical Pacific, most other oceans globally are in the grip of rising spree. Glimpse of cool are rather few and getting outperformed by global simmering.

The most recent numerical models plume suggest a transformation to El Nino, beginning June-August 2023. While the lower accuracy of models at this time keeps the forecasters haunted, anticipatory warming of the Pacific Ocean favours, with conviction, the transition to El Nino.

ENSO is a naturally occurring phenomenon. However, human-induced climate change is expected to impact the behaviour and dynamics of El Nino events. Under the warmer envelope of the ocean and lower atmosphere, these events may become 'extreme' in future.

Climate models are extending enough caution of a potential El Nino developing during 2nd  half of the year.  Models also read its peak during the later half of the Indian Summer Monsoon, more precisely during the quarter July-August-September. Though, the 'spring barrier' triggered low ac

Southwest Monsoon is getting closer to its timeline. The shadow of El Nino does not seem to be diluting. Rather, the probability is becoming bigger and stronger, more so, mid-way through the season. Core monsoon months continue to be at risk of impairment.

El Nino often cripples monsoon rainfall over Indian sub-continent. It is showing signs of evolving, immediately after cessation of Triple Dip La Nina. El Nino watch is already 'ON' confirming its probability around the monsoon time.

As such, the process of ENSO forecast based on dynamical and statistical models is complex and cumbersome. Both, the oceanic and atmospheric variables need to resonate simultaneously. Coupled oceanic and atmospheric models must get aligned adequately to reach logical conclusions.

Atmospheric and oceanic indicators so far, predict an evolving El Nino till July 2023 and converting to full fledged El Nino event in the later months. El Nino conditions in the recent past like 2009, 2014, 2015 & 2018 spoiled the monsoon season. The corrupt rainfall, if any, is bound to impact adversely Kharif crop yield and the agriculture sector as a whole.