Page 3 - Jon Scheve News Today

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLCLast Wednesday, the corn market pulled back to a technical point and Thursday it bounced off it. Fundamentally, crops aren’t made or lost in May, so debates over planted acres and Chinese demand for old and new crop will continue to manipulate prices. In June, weather becomes a factor and it’s impossible to know today what exactly will happen. I expect a bumpy road yet for prices this summer.

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC Both July and December corn futures closed higher last week compared to the end of the previous week and are still at or above levels from 3 weeks ago. Old crop corn The factors impacting old crop corn prices: Chinese demand for old crop corn is still uncertain, as many in the trade debate how many bushels will be shipped versus being pushed into next year’s crop. As the economy opens and people start driving to work or on vacations, ethanol consu...

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC In the last 15 trading sessions, July corn futures closed higher on all but two of them for a total of a $1.40 per bushel increase. Corn hasn’t increased this quickly since the end of June during the 2012 drought and it’s only been 53 weeks since the 11-year market low of $3. Last week prices exceeded $7 — a level only seen three times in history, with the last time being spring 2013. Prices are high because of Chinese demand and continued dry...

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC The week’s biggest story was the inverse spread between the May and July contracts.  Inverses mean that the market is short and really needs to find supply. Corn Corn rarely sees inverse at this point in the year, so when they show up in the spring, they are a very big deal. The spread opened in late April with May being 23 cents higher than July on Monday. By Thursday’s close it was 51 cents higher.  This kind of spread hasn’t happened si...

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC May corn prices blew past $6, and then a few days later $6.50. Additionally, May futures gained on July futures by almost 10 cents this last week, which is huge, because in a normal week in a normal year a 1-cent move on that spread in a weeks’ time would be a big deal. Basis values across the US also increased another 5 cents this week. These are clear indications that the market is begging for corn and is unable to find it. How much corn is left...

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC While temperatures were nearing normal last week on our farm in southeast Nebraska, a cold front has pushed in and put a stop to any planting progress. Usually, we start planting corn by April 11  and try to finish within 7 to 10 days. However, ground temperatures in our area remain below 45 degrees and forecasts show lows near 25 degrees on Tuesday. The weather outlook later in the week looks more favorable, so hopefully everyone can start plantin...

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC With the USDA increasing demand for all categories, the tightest carryout since summer 2014 is expected. This has led to plenty of uncertainty in the market.  Export potential Exports have the most potential for change as traders are still debating how much U.S. corn will be exported before late August. Some believe cancelations are possible and reductions are still likely, while others expect exports will increase significantly. Brazil impact If e...

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC Late last week, March corn and beans futures were trading at higher values than May contracts. Since this is ha

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLCCorn and bean prices will continue to be extremely volatile as the market determines how much grain will ultimately be exported out of the U.S. South America is beginning their harvest and currently their corn and beans are worth less than the U.S. right now. This could slow down U.S. export demand.While a large percentage of the beans purchased for export have been shipped, a lot of corn purchased for export has not.

By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLCCorn demand from China has increased dramatically over the last few months causing corn to rally $2 per bushel from August lows. This chart shows how unprecedented China’s recent corn import demand has been compared to the last 60 years. Source: Matt CampbellCurrently the USDA estimates China will import 24 MMT (Million Metric Tons) of corn from all over the world this year.