It is almost jarring. Back monday. Alongside lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Tom actually dropped me a message this morning at about 4 00 a. M. , looking at the price action and this rotation we have seen. I think its got everyones attention. Weve had a fake after head fake. Is it real this time around . Lisa every investor we speak to says buy any dip. Buy the big tex stocks on any dip whatsoever the big tech stocks on any dip whatsoever. Now people are going back into them. You have to wonder what it would take to make people truly believe in the cyclical story. It has to come from the data. Data just isnt there. Jonathan i think you have to get a lift in treasury yields. That takes Economic Data and real improvement. That is where thanks stalled in early june. Lisa i will also say the reason why tom keene was messaging you at 4 00 a. M. Is because he doesnt want to actually move up on floor. If i had to move, i would also be procrastinating. Jonathan are you joking about this .
Theseard some of questions wrapped around the surging equity markets that we saw yesterday. Jon is going to do the data in a bit. We saw a pullback in the data this morning. Butee it in bonds as well, a most interesting day all in all. You centered your data checks on the mystery of the u. S. Dollar. We are going to address that in a bit, but it is still a remarkably resilient u. S. Dollar. Jonathan and a hugely divisive debate at the moment about geographical bias. A lot of people focused on that word divergence. What is the reopening we can depend on . Is it not the United States . That is the question that has come up continually. For this recovery, the reopening, it will be bumpy and we will see a lot of evidence of that today in australia. At theu mentioned this top of the last hour. To see melbourne on official relocked down, that was sobering. Of about 5ity Million People and a daily infection rate pushing 200. It is a different approach. It is about the science, yet the policy
You have these records stimulus plans being proposed and a pretty Bleak Outlook certainly by the ecbs madame lagarde, and yet, we see the fear of missing out trade in full force across equity markets. It just feels like if this fomo trade continues, how much does the pressure come on fiscal policy makers to continue these programs . Jonathan i completely agree. Right now. Ope italy rallying because of what europe is about to do, or what they are talking of doing, and germany not really backing up any big way. We had record issuance in the United States. What have treasury yields done . Not a whole lot. The market is wide open for these guys to do a whole lot more. Lisa yesterday, the Federal Reserve sold twoyear notes at ,he lowest ever yield of 0. 18 which brings us to what we are looking at today. You are seeing u. S. Treasuries selling another 45 billion of fiveyear notes. Also it to 00 p. M. , the fed is going to release its beige book also at 2 00 p. M. , the fed is going to relea
Based on the risk off the further markets. It is time now for global exchange. We will bring you todays market moving news from all around the world. Our bloomberg voices are on the ground with this mornings top stories. Where to begin in asia, the coronavirus continues to spread in china, with the number of confirmed cases climbing above 75,000. Engle. Me is Stephen Stephen for the second time in about a week, china has rejigged its methodology for how to classify confirmed cases of the coronavirus in china, that has led to this now becoming a bit of a global crisis. We are seeing more speculation that the data we are getting is we necessarily reliable, or are seeing a significant dropoff in the number of confirmed cases. In hubei province, just 349 new cases reported overnight. Is that because of the new methodology, or do they have the containment efforts under control . That is raising a lot of confusion and questions. Also, it adds to suspicion that officials in china may be prema
Ken i think treasuries have run as far as they are going to run at this point. If we see improvement in growth, we are looking for improvement in growth in europe, and the message will be that the market will adjust. Are we going to go dramatically higher . No. But i think we are at the low end. Jonathan it is like chinese water torture, drip, drip, drip. Ok data from the u. S. Chinese data doing ok. That chinese data to close out the week was really terrific compared to what we had 12 months ago. Here we are, yields are up by a basis point. Does that make sense . Ken i would argue it should have moved more, but there is this tremendous damper on the system that is the fed. That is what you are seeing. Greg their version of qe is still supporting with 20 billion euros on one end. It seems like the market consensus is the fed is out for 2020. That leaves you with the 10year at 1. 80. Breakeven is 1. 75. I dont see anything breaking us out of here. Jonathan we have to talk about the trea