great relationship between the u.s. and uk right now? normally the relationship between the uk and the u.s. looks quite good because the president and prime minister just say the normal positive things that don t really make much news and they tend to be on the same page and the cooperation is very deep and structural. so it sort of passes by unnoticed unless there is a major war or major crisis that comes to the fore. what s really unique about president trump s term is that from the very beginning two and a half years ago he has repeatedly interfered in uk domestic politics in a way to undermine theresa may and her government, whether that s on her top priority, domestically, of brexit and ensuring there is a deal with the eu, or on who the ambassador is from the uk to the u.s. or on investigations into terrorist attacks in britain, he is just every few months intervened in those in a manner that s made it very
uncomfortable for london. so what in the end is the impact of that? to the extent that there are people on the far right in the united kingdom who are feeding off this momentum around the world toward the right, in the main are people in the uk concerned about what donald trump says? well, i think it s got a variety of impacts. on brexit i think it does make a no deal brexit more likely. so when president trump says there s no problem with no deal in brexit and the uk ought to get for that and they will get a trade deal with the u.s. even though speaker pelosi said no such trade deal would be ratified, i think that does say to conservative members who are voting on the next prime minister and that that is a viable option when the prime minister has said that that is not. on a variety of other issues, on security concerns and there has been a number of times where investigations have been rendered more problematic into ongoing terrorist activity and
know if it is going to have brexit through negotiations, whether it s going to leave brexit, leave europe without a deal. so right now this country is very sensitive to foreign disruption. and that makes it sensitive to president trump, but also makes president trump s visit here very important because if the uk leaves the eu without a deal, that means it is that much more dependent on the united states for a trade deal. so today pomp and circumstances i m sure it was a very exciting trip, the banquet, the very formal banquet that hallie was talking about is either under way or soon to be under way. we just watched the marine one land here. there are a small group of protesters who are gathered here to try to disrupt that banquet, but tomorrow a much more political day and there should be many more protesters on the sheets, tens of thousands at the very least. wow. all right, richard, thank you. richard engel in london for us, hallie jackson in london as
rates they are all saying that the probability of recession is close to zero. with both of those it means we should expect the interest rate thing to work itself out over time. we have a few projections from some of the wall street houses, business insiders is reporting morgan stanley s chief economist suggests that if president trump follows through with this threat to slap 25% on chinese imports and beijing retaliates america s economy could shrink for two successive quarters within nine months. jpmorgan pegs the chances of a u.s. recession in the second half of this year 40% and economists at goldman sachs anticipating the trump administration will impose 10% tariffs on virtually all chinese imports and on all mexican foods lowered its second half growth forecast by half a percentage point to 2%. three different houses saying trade is going to result in lower economic growth. right.
talk about this on tv all day but people want to know you are a guy who in your previous life was a free trader. i still am, yeah. is that part of the thing that the president sort of is doubling down on tariffs and it s not really something you believe in? no, it s absolutely not related at all. in fact, i think that, you know, the president has pursued a trade reform agenda, you and i have talked about it, and i think that the proof is in the pudding for some of the deals, the korea deal is a lot better, the usmca deal, the nafta deal is a lot better. so the president he is a tough negotiator and takes tough stance and puts a lot of pressure on people he is negotiating in but in the end his objectives and mine are the same and that s trade reform. what s going on with the ten year treasuries? what s happening in the bond market right now? it s difficult to say because ten year treasuries normally would move the way we re seeing if there was an expectation of significant wea