There are clear indications that some amount of volatility will be back on the street. First phase of the volatility is normally led by large cap stocks, and even today large caps from different sectors are witnessing pressure. But the other fact is that recovery in the market is also largely led by the large cap and they stabilized much before other segment of the market. The pattern of the sectoral correction is visible. Yesterday, it was banking which led the correction. Today it is metal stock which is leading the correction as the bank stabilizes. ET screener powered by Refinitiv’s Stock Report Plus lists down quality stocks with high upside potential over the next 12 months, having an average recommendation rating of “buy” or "strong buy". The screener applies different algorithms for all BSE and NSE stocks.
These largecaps have strong buy & buy recos and upside potential of more than 20%
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Today despite the fact that the nifty heavyweights are trading in green territory, nifty is still trading just moving close to the red territory. This along with a negative market breadth is clearly indicating that finally a phase of profit booking has come. There is a high probability that this corrective phase may continue further. Because the valuation differential in large and mid cap had increased very sharply, there is more probability of a mean revision trade taking place. It might be better for have a bias toward looking at large cap when investing fresh money.
Volatility never gives notice before coming and again on Monday, it did not give one. The difference is that this time the impact of volatility was felt by more investors and traders. There are two probable reasons, list of top loser on Monday was dominated by PSU stocks which have been the best performing set of stocks in last few weeks and that all those who only recently realized that there is something called PSU and jumped on the bandwagon are probably looking at their phone and saying why have their portfolio has fallen so hard. Second, the overall market breadth was extremely bad which means more portfolios got hit. There is a high probability that volatile movement in broader markets might continue for some time, So, it would be better to stay prepared for volatility. One of the ways for that would be to stay with large caps and especially the ones which have shown streak of outperformance at a time when other large caps have been under pressure.
Volatility never gives notice before coming so one should always be prepared for it. Another point to be watched, if the frequency of the volatile phase increases and it starts to happen every other fortnight, it might be an indication of strong headwinds. For a large number of investors, volatility is only when mid-cap stocks correct. But the problem is that by the time they feel the heat of the correction the price damage is very high. So, it would be better to stay prepared for volatility. One of the ways for that would be to stay with large caps and especially the ones which have shown streak of outperformance at a time when other large caps have been under pressure. Another reason for staying with large caps is that valuations are high in large part of the mid and small caps and they are the ones which might lose more weight if the markets stay under pressure due to profit booking.
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