Leans Democratic News Today

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— One of the most useful tools that the Crystal Ball employs on a regular basis is Dave’s Redistricting App, which helps us make sense of redistricting and includes a plethora of data.— Using some of DRA’s newly-released data, we are looking back at how the 2008 election compares to 2020 by congressional district.— Despite doing several points worse nationally than Barack Obama did in 2008, Joe Biden performed better than Obama in nearly half (211) of the cu...

Rating changes in 7 districts a mixed bag for each party; previewing the NY-3 special.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— We are making 7 House rating changes this week, with 4 benefiting Democrats and 3 benefiting Republicans.— Republicans continue to be closer to the magic number of 218 in our ratings than Democrats, but there are enough Toss-up races that we broadly consider the race for the House to be a Toss-up overall.— The NY-3 special remains highly competitive less than a week before th...

In vintage Louisiana fashion, Democrats gain a second Louisiana seat.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Earlier this week, Gov. Jeff Landry (R-LA) signed a new House map that creates a second Black-majority seat in the state.— The new district, stretching from Baton Rouge to Shreveport, would have favored Joe Biden by 20 points in 2020 and is Safe Democratic.— Former Rep. Cleo Fields (D) seems to be a frontrunner for the new seat, and, if elected, would return to Congress after a nearly 30 year...

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Despite bad polling and clear weaknesses for President Biden, we are sticking with our initial Electoral College ratings from the summer, which show him doing better than what polls today would indicate, even as there are enough Toss-up electoral votes to make the election anyone’s game.— We still anticipate a close and competitive election between Biden and former President Trump, whose dominance in the GOP primary race has endured as the Iowa caucus looms.

The political polarization has been accompanied by more and more states becoming battlegrounds, no longer firmly entrenched in either the red or blue camp.

Places to watch in Kentucky, Mississippi, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The key races we’re watching next week are gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi, the state legislative contests in Virginia, an abortion-related ballot issue in Ohio, and a state Supreme Court race in Pennsylvania.— We continue to favor incumbent Govs. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and Tate Reeves (R-MS) in next week’s gubernatorial elections, even as upsets are possible in eithe...

Anna Moneymaker // Getty Images Over the past three decades, Democratic Party voters have shifted more to the left than voters in the Republican Party have to the right, according to a report by the Brookings Institution. Gallup Poll data shows that s...

A conservative majority on the Supreme Court blasted through decades of precedent Thursday to put an end to affirmative action in university admissions and is expected today to conclude the term by blocking President Biden’s program to forgive student loan debts. Since last year, right-leaning justices have issued constitutional reinterpretations that are reshaping cultural, privacy…

And Adam Schiff and Katie Porter lead in early California Senate polling.

CA/NY vital for Democratic comeback; new maps in NC/OH could give Republicans a buffer.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The overall battle for House control in 2024 starts as a Toss-up.— Relatively similar numbers of Democratic and Republican seats start in the most competitive Toss-up and Leans categories, although Republicans start with a few more targets in large part because of the likelihood that they will benefit from redistricting in North Carolina and Ohio.— Big blue states California...