michigan, gretchen whitmer, who is also reportedly in contention for that slot. she is also reportedly being vetted by the biden campaign as a potential running mate. president trump of course was in governor whitmer's state today. he was in michigan. where he gave a sort of rambling string of consciousness rally-type speech after he toured a ford factory. that was really strange. and then even though everybody in that factory is supposed to wear a mask at all times, the president told the press that they were not allowed to see him in a mask, and that's why he wasn't wearing one there. whereupon, nevertheless, we promptly got pictures of him in which he appears to be wearing a mask. this one comes from the twitter account of congresswoman jackie spear, another day, another thrill, in terms of what it means to cover the surreal, surreal presidency of donald trump. governor whitmer in michigan is contending not only with that nonsense, she's contending with a serious disaster right now in the central part of her state, in midland, county, michigan, where there is fairly catastrophic flooding and serious worries about a superfund site there, under the flood waters. and that is of course on top of michigan's ongoing battle with the coronavirus. michigan has had more than 5,000 of its residents killed by the virus thus far. only new york, new jersey, and massachusetts have had a higher death toll than michigan thus far. we're going to be speaking again live with governor gretchen whitmer in just a moment tonight. you should also know we are going to be speaking tonight with the epidemiologist whose work landed on the front page of "the new york times" today. you probably saw this headline. waiting to lock down costs 36,000 american lives. that is the absolute gut punch of a finding from a new study by, among others columbia university epidemiologist dr. jeffrey shaman. and this is a complicated study. there is a lot of math here. look at this for a second. this is the transmission model. this is from page 14 of their article. the equation on the top there, is for daytime transmission. the equation on the bottom is for nighttime transmission of coronavirus. this is like a seriously nume logical thing but for all the math here, the bottom line is the most human thing in the world this. study will just rip your heart out. i mean what all that math is about, is the fact that we finally got around as a country, in mid march, to putting in broad stay-at-home orders, and starting to tell people to stay away from other people basically, to try to slow the spread of the virus, and those restrictions did slow the pace of the spread of the virus. and it slowed the spread of the virus to a degree that you can measure it. with all this complicated math. it turns out that you can then use that math to figure out what would have happened, sort of build a counter-factual model to figure out what would have happened if we had taken those same actions that we took in the middle of march, but we had taken them a week earlier. or two weeks earlier. and the numbers suggest, just blow you away. i mean if we had acted nationwide according to this modeling from columbia university, today, if we had acted nationwide, just in the way that we did, but we had done it one week earlier, on march 8th, 36,000 americans who are dead today would not have died. if we had acted two weeks earlier, if instead of acting on march 15th, we had acted on march 1st, 54,000 american lives would have been saved. americans who are dead today, whose lives would have never been at risk, had we just acted two weeks earlier. but of course, you know, this is where we were at, even as of march 9th. saddled with a federal government run by a president who even as of that date was crying about how quote nothing is shut down, life and the economy go on. maybe not too much emphasis now on the life part now that we know that him dithering for that long cost tens of thousands of americans their lives. so we're going to talk with the epidemiologist behind that absolutely unforgettable study. and importantly, that epidemiologist is going to come on the air with us tonight, to talk about what that modeling tells us, not just about when we should have started taking this seriously. but what we should do now, from here on out. now that we've got 1.5 million cases, now that we've got over 95,000 americans dead. this kind of modeling isn't just about what we should address about the past and who we should blame for inaction in the past. it is helpful for that. but it is also fairly prescriptive in terms of what is going to happen next. and how we shouldn't make the same mistake twice. and how we should make the next round of decisions that we need to make in terms of public policy, so we're going to be speaking with governor whit mer from michigan. we are going to speaking with that epidemiologist. big show. all coming up tonight. >> but we are going to start tonight, with what appears to be a really, really urgent situation that is unfolding right now, in one great american city. you might have seen the headlines today, about modeling that's been done to try to account for how people are behaving now, as state restrictions get lifted around the country, in particular, there's been quite a lot of coverage of this one bit of modeling from philadelphia-based researchers, who are using anonymized mobile phone data to track how people are moving around more as state restrictions get lifted, and using that mobile phone data about how people are actually behaving right now, they are modeling the epidemiological consequences of these new patterns of movement as the states are starting to open up. and as people are starting to move around more. and the "washington post" headline about this modeling today put it pretty succinctly, quote, coronavirus hot spots erupt across the country. experts warn of second wave in the south. and i know that we keep talking about first waves and second waves and that's part of the jargon of our discussion around this epidemic at this point, but in this case, it's important to know that when they're talking about a second wave in the south here, they're not warning about a sec wave in the fall, or, you know, in the flu season, or when it gets cold again. this is the second wave that the experts are warning about that is coming right now, over the next four weeks. quote, according to a research team that uses cell phone data to track social mobility and forecast the trajectory of the pandemic, dallas, houston, southeast florida's gold coast, the entire state of alabama, and several other places in the american south, that have been rapidly reopening their economies, are in danger of a second wave of coronavirus infections over the next four weeks. over the next four weeks. which is worrying. if the second wave is coming like now. the second wave is going to be here for june. but that basic idea does make sense. it does roughly jive with what we are starting to see in terms of data in places that are reopening. in texas, and in florida, and in maryland, and, yes, in alabama, we are seeing the reopening of those places coinciding with the case numbers hitting record highs and going back up. i will say the numbers in alabama in particular are unsettling. every state has one of these sort of coronavirus dashboard things now, at least a central web site where they do, they release basic information from the state about what is going on in the epidemic, and alabama, the state's data visualization dashboard thingy, i have to tell you, is a mess. literally, this is the data visualization aid you are greeted with when you first go there. oh, that's helpful. i see now, i understand. there's a lot of stuff on the alabama data visualization web site which makes no sense and is of no help at all. but if you fiddle around with it, long enough, eventually, you can get the alabama coronavirus data hub to spit out this chart showing the growth in daily case numbers in alabama. and as bad as all of their other data visualization stuff is, this is clear, and this is bad. quote, the average number of new cases reported each day in alabama has been higher in may than any prior month. before may 5th, alabama had seen only two days with more than 300 new covid cases. since then, alabama's reported 300-plus new cases on ten out of 15 days. that's how al.com is summing up the rise in cases and how the state is the worst it's been and seeming to get worse every day. so it's bad generally speaking in alabama, even as the governor there, republican governor kay ivey, keeps insisting that something else should be opening up every day, and keeps insisting that everything is fine and everything needs to be opened there. that model that i mentioned is using cell phone data to track mobility and the epidemiological consequences of that, that model could not be more blunt about the risk in alabama right now. quote, according to the model, alabama will probably experience a steep increase in cases in nearly every county in the state over the course of the next month. so, as we are going through this political and policy transformation, where every state in the union is opening to a certain degree, and in some states, that might be okay, that might be wise, and in some states, it really seems clear that it is not a good idea, there really is an alarm ringing for the whole state of alabama right now. depending how you look at it, in terms of state's own numbers and in terms of the state's journalists and in terms of mod lers looking at the most worrying places in the country, everyone is sort of pointing at alabama and saying this is not good. but if you live in the capital city of the great state of alabama, if you live in montgomery, alabama, specifically, you woke up today, to an even louder alarm than everybody else in your state got today. because this is what arrived on your doorstep in montgomery, as your morning paper today. this is the front page of the "montgomery advertiser" today and this is how big the headline is. montgomery hospitals down to one icu bed. and that photo there, that is the mayor of the city of montgomery, mayor stephen reed and he really does have a bear of an epidemic on his hands this. shows the total cases in montgomery, alabama, over time, how steeply they have risen over time. for an even starker look, this is a graph that not only shows their cumulative case, their total cases, this is their new cases day by day. look at the recent days on that. look at how that is spiking. and that isn't scary just in terms of being alarming graph. that isn't just scary in math terms. it's not even scary in terms of the forward-looking implications for the spread of the virus, inside that american city. what's going on in montgomery, alabama, right now, is already being lived in terms of real dire consequences. and i use the word dire advisedly, because that is the mayor is calling it right now. the mayor of montgomery, alabama right now, is ringing the alarm bell as loudly as he can. watch this. >> whether you believe this or not, it is a serious issue. our health care system is at a critical point right now. and we are at a point that we are now diverting acute care patients to birmingham, because of our icu bed shortage. that's very serious. right now, if you are from montgomery and you need an icu bed, you're in trouble. if you're from central alabama, and you need an icu bed, you may not be able to get one. because our health care system has been maxed out. right now, we are short at baptist east by three beds. baptist south has zero icu beds. baptist south pratville has zero icu beds and jackson hospital, not far from here, montgomery, has one. i really want us to think about the seriousness of that. because none of us know who may need that icu bed today and who may need that this evening, tomorrow, or over this extended memorial day weekend. >> mayor stephen read, of montgomery, alabama, sounding the alarm. if you are from montgomery, and you need an icu bed, you're in trouble. if you are from central alabama, and you need an icu bed, you may not be able to get one. this is happening right now. montgomery alabama. and their mayor signaling that the city needs help. joining us right now is steven reed, the mayor of the great city of montgomery, alabama. mr. mayor, thank you so much for making time tonight. i know you have an incredible amount of work on your plate. thanks for making time to be here. >> thanks for having me, rachel. >> let me just ask if what i've described about what is happening in your city and indeed in alabama, if that comports with your understanding or if i've gotten anything wrong in the way that i've described it? >> no, you're dead on, that is the information that we had yesterday, when we did the press conference. we understand that information has changed somewhat. it has been some improvement but not very much, in terms of availability in the community. however, we're still at a point of crisis in this city, because of the lack of icu beds that are available, even with some beds being freed up over the last 24 to 48 hours. >> i think the thing that is so worrying, from a national perspective, thinking about what's going on in your city is, that we're, as we see rural outbreaks, places where they've got maybe a prison, or some nursing homes, or a meat packing plant or something, where it's a rural area, but they've got workplace-based outbreaks, and so they have large spikes in cases, you're sometimes, i feel like i'm recognizing this pattern now, we will get reports from rural america, that there is a place where there is only one hospital, there's only two hospitals, and they're getting overwhelmed and they need help. what you're describing in montgomery, is a good-sized american city, with a handful of hospitals. it's not milike montgomery has e or two hospitals, you've got a reasonably sized health care system there but it sounds like all of the facilities in your city are being taxed and that the system as a whole is essentially over capacity, even if you factor in all of the different places that people can go to get treated. is that fair? >> you're exactly right. we're at a place right now, because of the decimation of our rural health care system, in alabama, and throughout this country, where we have people that come from as far away as 80 miles, in towns that are big and small, that depend on montgomery, as a health care capital. they come here to get medical care. they come here to get taken care of. and unfortunately, because of that, not only are we here to support our residents in the city of montgomery, and the county itself, but we're supporting the entire area. now, i think what we have to look at is, this covid-19 virus has really exposed the gaps in our health care system, both in terms of who can get access to it, and those who have access to particular and what it can sustain. and we're in a very serious situation here because of the trend that you've highlighted on your show, and what the numbers are saying and that is happening here over the last few weeks, since we reopened the economy. >> now, the reopening is not something that is a fait accompli. it continues. and the governor continues to make these announcements. i mean it was yesterday that you gave that stark warning about the icus in your city essentially being full and needing to offload patients to birmingham and it was today, that the governor further relaxed restrictions in the state for theaters and summer camps, for schools and athletic activities. i have to think that those statewide decisions that the governor is making, they don't really seem to match up with the experience in montgomery, both in terms of the number of cases you got, but how taxed your resources already are in terms of whether you can handle more cases. it seems like there is a real disconnect there. >> well, i think there is. you know, we've had different hot spots around the state over the last couple of months. and right now, in montgomery, we're at a point where we can see the cliff, and we don't want to get too close to it from fear of falling off. and that's why we sounded the alarm yesterday, leading up to this memorial day weekend. and i think when you look at montgomery, we tested less than 4% of our population, we've doubled our cases, month over month. we've had week to week increases of over 40%, this month alone. we're in a very dangerous predicament. and i think parts of the state may be doing a little better for now. but i don't think that the economy should have been open at the time that it was. i think that we should have slowed our reopening and done some things a little bit differently, because what i think it has done is send a message that the battle with covid is over, and it has been won. we're still in this battle. and we can't afford to relax now, and lose much of the progress that we've made over these last few weeks. and make no mistake about it. our first responders, our medical personnel, our front line workers, they've done a great job. members of the community have stepped up to do things over and beyond to help their neighbors and to help their families and just to help out in any way they can. but it doesn't help us if we are doing those things on, and taking two steps back, by preem material trying to get back to our normal routine and what was normal prior to this pandemic. >> steven reed, mayor of the great city of montgomery, alabama, sir, thank you so much for taking time, for us tonight, we're going to be checking in with hospitals, in your city, we'll do yoour best to stay on this city as your city continues to struggle with these real high case numbers but please keep us apprised if you feel if that there are things the country needs to know about what you're going through. to help you get the word out sir. thank you. >> thank you for having me. i will say there has been a lot of happy talk about the course of the ep dem ictiidemic very beginning, have the very top, which delayed our initial response which likely caused teps of thousands of lives in america. we will be talking about more of that later on in this hour. and part of the happy talk we're getting now, particularly on the political right is look the reopening is happening and everybody is fine. and first of all, when people get exposed it takes a couple of weeks in terms of people getting tested and having positive results and turning up in the hospital and ultimately turning up critically ill, so all of the premature celebration about look how great the opening up is ignorant. but this idea that it is just a theoretical that our health care systems will be overtaxed or will come to capacity, as we reopening fuels the surge in more cases, it's not a hypothetical. it's happening right now in montgomery, alabama. ignoring that, because you like the idea of reopening doesn't make that go away. michigan governor gretchen whitmer will join us live here next. stay with us. whitmer will join us live here next stay with us okay, where were we? yeah, i'm done after this meeting. we're just going over how people who switch to progressive can save hundreds. hey mara! - yeah jamie's the guy running it. - mara, you're not on mute. i once had to fake jury duty to get out of talking about his yogurt preferences. mara, you know you're not on mute, right? oh, there's a mute button? yeah, that's flo! the one who looks like she'd smile while she sleeps. flo: i always smile. mara: that's why i said that. for an everyday item to become dangerous. tide pods child-guard pack helps keep your laundry pacs in a safe place and your child safer. to close, twist until it clicks. tide pods child-guard packaging. there it goes. will it goes. a and. >> and there it went. that is the moment when the edenville dam in central michigan collapsed. that footage was caught on camera by a local resident named lynn coalman who happened to be recording at the time that that happened. lynn coleman told mi-live.com quote, i shot the video for about 30 seconds. then shut it off and called 911. the edenville dam was one of two dams that failed the day before yesterday after heavy rains over the weekend. the other was the sanford dam, upriver from the city of midland michigan which has a population of about 42,000 people. now midland, michigan, has been inundated with what is being called 500-year flood, parts of the city, recover tops were left just barely visible underneath the flood waters. hundreds of homes got swamped. many of them totally destroyed. local roads washed out. left impassable. people who live in the area, more than 10,000 of them were evacuated ahead of the breach. they were told that it could take another four or five days before the flood waters recede there. before they can even start to clean up. people evacuated from their homes have been put up in some cases in temporary shelters, set up around the city. at midland, michigan, high school, senior citizens make up about 90% of the crowd that is now sleeping in the gym there, and that of course is not ideal, in terms of the other crisis in michigan right now, the crisis we've all got now, in terms of the coronavirus epidemic. not a great time to have people sheltering in congregate facilities, particularly mostly elderly people. late last night, michigan's governor gretchen whitmer sent a letter to president trump requesting a federal emergency declaration. as it happens president trump was in michigan today, giving a weird rambling campaign-like speech at a ford plant. the president granted the governor's request for federal assistance to augment the state and local response. that's of note, because it comes right after he threatened earlier this week to withhold all federal aid for michigan, because the state was going ahead with plans to make voting easier and less risky during the epidemic. today, governor whitmer described the damage in midland as truly devastating. she said it was like anything we have seen before. she noted the incredibly stressful nature of an operation to get 10,000 people out of a flood zone, while maintaining social distancing. with everything going on, governor whitmer has agreed to join us live tonight for which i'm very grateful. i have lots of questions for her about this very desperate situation in central michigan, the state's local efforts to combat the coronavirus which has killed over 5,000 people in her state, the fourth highest death toll in the country, i also want to talk to her about what she is calling the opening conversation she had with vice president biden's team which reportedly has her on the list of potential running mates. last time governor whitmer was here on the show, she really did not want to talk to me about that last thing and i will ask her again and she will probably blow me off again. and i'll try. governor whitmer joins us live next. governor whitmer joins us live next for people living with h-i-v, keep being you. and ask your doctor about biktarvy. biktarvy is a complete, one-pill, once-a-day treatment used for h-i-v in certain adults. it's not a cure, but with one small pill, biktarvy fights h-i-v to help you get to and stay undetectable. that's when the amount of virus is so low it cannot be measured by a lab test. research shows people who take h-i-v treatment every day and get to and stay undetectable can no longer transmit h-i-v through sex. serious side effects can occur, including kidney problems and kidney failure. rare, life-threatening side effects include a buildup of lactic acid and liver problems. do not take biktarvy if you take dofetilide or rifampin. tell your doctor about all the medicines and supplements you take, if you are pregnant or breastfeeding, or if you have kidney or liver problems, including hepatitis. if you have hepatitis b, do not stop taking biktarvy without talking to your doctor. common side effects were diarrhea, nausea, and headache. if you're living with hiv, keep loving who you are. and ask your doctor if biktarvy is right for you. if you're living with hiv, keep loving who you are. your bank can be virtually any place you are. you can deposit checks from here. and you can see your transactions and check your balance from here. and pay bills from here. because your bank isn't just one place. it's virtually any place you are. just download and use the chase mobile app. visit chase.com/mobile. ♪[ siren ] & doug give me your hand! i can save you... lots of money with liberty mutual! we customize your car insurance so you only pay for what you need! only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ sleep number 360 smart bed. memorial day sale on the can it help keep me asleep? absolutely, it senses your movements and automatically adjusts to keep you both comfortable. save $1,000 on the sleep number 360® special edition smart bed. plus 0% interest for 36 months & free delivery when you add a base. joining us now for the interview is governor gretchen whitmer of the great state of michigan, and boy does she have a lot to contend with right now. governor, you are dealing with an emergency at home, you're dealing with this ongoing epidemic. you are dealing with a strange visit from the president today. thank you for making time in the middle of all of this to be here with us tonight. >> thank you, rachel. >> let me ask you first about this historic flooding in your state. this is a crisis that you could see coming. you ordered people evacuated out of harm's way before those dams failed, or were overwhelmed. but it seems to me as best as i can tell that this is a crisis is not over. not only have flood waters not receding but are you expecting that there may need to be further evacuations, there that there may be other towns that are in danger? >> we are concerned and we're watching it very closely, and we know, too, that there is more precipitation in the forecast. and so we're taking this very seriously. i'll just acknowledge, the fact that we're in the midst of a global pandemic, on top of that, dealing with a 500-year flood event, which of course becoming more and more frequent. we've got climate change as a part of that. but also, old infrastructure as well. we were able to evacuate 10,000 people in the midst of all of this. and at this, as of our conversation now, we've not found any casualties. and it really is a testament, i know people see the footage of what's going on at the capitol and protests but what is happening in the state of michigan is people are rising to the challenge and helping one another. we've flattened our curve. we've helped each other out. people are displaced from their home and when i went to midland i was so inspired by the attitude of the people who are all wearing masks and chipping in to help each other in the midst of these two crises, and it was really inspiring. we got a lot of tough stuff to deal with, and tough things that we're trying to confront together, but i think you can see bits of humanity every day in this, and that's what keeps us going. >> let me ask you about the way these two emergencies sort of dove-tailed in your state. obviously, emergency planning when you think about the need to evacuate large numbers of people, as you said, 10,000 people, in very short order, in advance of an impending dam failure, that's a specific kind of emergency planning. to have to integrate that with social distancing, and infection control protocols, that are so unusual, so unfamiliar, something we've never done before this epidemic, i mean how do you integrate those two imperatives, how do you evacuate people and keep them safe and put them up in shelters while also preventing them from giving each other coronavirus. >> well, it's really incredible. when i went to the state emergency operations center, to call for the evacuation, and to declare a state of emergency, on tuesday night, i found myself saying, this is a once in a lifetime event. and i found myself saying this again, right, i've said it many times over the last ten weeks here in michigan. and yet, here we are, and we're going to grit our teeth and get through this. and help one another out. the local emergency operations center was on top of this. and they worked seamlessly with the state emergency operations center. they have done phenomenal work. and i think that the planning and all of the different agencies, the michigan national guard, the michigan state police combined with what was happening at the local level, really contributed to an organization that helped save people, but we're going to have our work cut out for us. it is going to take a while to come back from this. there is no question. >> on the issue of the epidemic per your executive order in the state, anybody who is medically able to do so has to wear something that covers their face in enclosed spaces. the whole country watched today, as the president sort of personally, gleefully throughouted th flouted that when he visited your state and visited a plant and didn't wear a mask at least for most of the visit and photos did surface apparently in other parts of the plant wearing a mask but talking to the press, he was sort of bragging about the fact that he wasn't doing so. i just wanted to ask your response to that. it's public health behavior modeling by the president at one level. but it is also specifically floating your order in the state. >>. well it's disappointing, it wasn't surprising but it was disappointing. i think that our big three have just started the reengagement, right? they are phasing in reengaging, after what has been a stay-at-home order, and the uaw members are concerned about their safety, naturally, they worked very closely, the head of the uaw, rory gambles, worked very closely with the head of the big three, to make sure that his members would be safe when they went back to the workplace. as you saw in the footage, all of the ford executives wore the masks. all of the employees were wearing masks. all of the press were. and it's really important that anyone with a platform has a responsibility to make sure that they model precisely what we're asking everyone else to do. this is about public health. not one person's or another. this is about all of us. and anyone in a position of power, and responsibility, i hope emulates and does precisely what they're asking everyone else to do. >> one of the things that we talked about the last time you were here, governor, is an effort to try to get everybody in nursing homes, in michigan, tested, and i know that you have been pursuing that, i know that you've also, in michigan, been pursuing a plan to try to get everybody in michigan state prisons tested, and that has turned up some large numbers of positive prisoners, in some state correctional facilities. i have to ask you, now that you're further along into those projects, if you feel like you have clarity, or if there are lessons learned, in terms of what you do with that information when you've got it, once you know that you've got an epidemic, once you know you've got an epidemic in a dangerous place for the spread of this virus, like a prison, like a nursing home, do you understand what the right protocols should be that go into effect in terms of separating people with the virus from people who don't have it. >> so obviously with a novel virus like this, we are learning an incredible amount every single day. and we have been really ramping up our testing in michigan. we're now in the top six, both in numbers of tests done and numbers per million. that is something to be proud of. we have tested a lot of people in our nursing homes, and in our prisons. we have learned from that, and we've got protocols that we have developed in conjunction with our nursing homes. to make sure that we are able to keep people safe. this is a challenge. but we, the more information we have, the better we can take actions that will protect people. and that's why this testing is so important. we've been behind the eight ball as a nation when it comes to testing. we're still struggling to make sure that we've got all of the appropriate swabs we need. so that our testing capabilities were up to the maximum. and are on all fronts. we've made greenard great strides but there is no question there is a lot more work to do. i'm also proud that we have been one of the first states to release racial data, that we have been able to learn in this process as well so we can identify the fact that this has had a disproportionate impact on communities of color. i'm hopeful that every state in the nation is ultimately sharing that data, so that we do the hard work of learning the lessons. this virus is holding up a mirror to the united states of america and we better learn lessons and come out of this determined to do better. >> governor whitmer, i asked you the last time you were here about reports that the biden campaign had approached you about potentially being vetted to be his running mate for the forthcoming campaign against president trump and mike pence in the fall and you absolutely did not want to talk about it, and i can tell just from looking at you that you do not want to talk about it again right now. but i'm going to press you on it a little bit because these reports continue. we believe that those opening conversations have happened. and it's a really important thing, as the country is trying to figure out who joe biden might pick and whether or not that person is going to be ready to be president. can you tell us anything at all about that, about that process, whether or not that vetting is happening, and whether or not you look forward to the scrutiny and potentially joining that campaign? >> here's what i can tell you, that they have got a phenomenal group of people to vet, and there are a lot of phenomenal women leaders across this country, who would make a great running mate for joe biden and no matter who it is, i am going to be a strong ally, and i, because this is a crucial election, and i believe in joe biden, i believe he will make a great president, and no matter what way that goes, i am going to be helping and counting on us, you know, to move forward, as a country, and learn the lessons from this horrible experience we've been going through together. >> governor gretchen whitmer, of the great state of michigan, thank you for at least entertaining my question. to the degree that you did. i know that's not your favorite thing to talk about. thank you, governor. and good luck to you. i know every governor's dealing with a lot right now in terms of this epidemic but it just feels like you are being, you are fielding more than most. so please keep us apprised. we would love to have you back any time you want to come back. >> tough lasts don't last, but tough people do, we will get through, this but thank you for shining that light here on michigan. we appreciate it. >> i hear you, governor. thank you. coming up next here, we're going to be speaking with the epidemiologist, who study, whose study is on the front page of "the new york times" today, the study that says if h-we acted even one week earlier as a country while the president was insisting nothing need toed to be done about this virus, if we had acted one week earlier, tens of thousands of americans who had died would not have died. that study next. stay with us. d died would not hd that study next. stay with us i wanted my hepatitis c gone. i put off treating mine. epclusa treats all main types of chronic hep c. whatever your type, epclusa could be your kind of cure. i just found out about mine. i knew for years. epclusa has a 98% overall cure rate. i had no symptoms of hepatitis c mine caused liver damage. epclusa is only one pill, once a day, taken with or without food for 12 weeks. before starting epclusa, your doctor will test if you have had hepatitis b, which may flare up, and could cause serious liver problems during and after treatment. tell your doctor if you have had hepatitis b, other liver or kidney problems, hiv, or other medical conditions... ...and all medicines you take, including herbal supplements. taking amiodarone with epclusa may cause a serious slowing of your heart rate. common side effects include headache and tiredness. ask your doctor today, if epclusa is your kind of cure. everything has changed. our work, how we eat, breathe, even stand. but we can't stand for this. to protect our health and our right to vote... with vote by mail, and safe options for voting in person, we must act now. but mitch mcconnell refuses to let the senate vote. join us. tell mitch: protect our health and our vote. why's mitch so afraid of our voices being heard? let america vote pac is responsible for the content of this ad. confident financial plans, calming financial plans, complete financial plans. they're all possible with a cfp® professional. find yours at letsmakeaplan.org. they're all possible with a cfp® professional. alice loves the scent of gain so much, she wished there was a way to make it last longer. say hello to your fairy godmother alice. and long-lasting gain scent beads. part of the irresistible scent collection from gain! epidemiological news isn't often the kind of thing that makes you feel like your heart is breaking. but that's what this did today. quote, if the united states had begun imposing social distancing measures, one week earlier than it did, in march, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to the new estimates from the columbia university disease modelers. and if the country had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on march 1st, two weeks earlier, than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nation's deaths, about 83%, would have been avoided. quote, under that scenario, about 54,000 fewer americans would have died by early may. so just one week earlier, on what we did, something we know we are capable of doing, because we did it, we just had done it one week earlier, 36,000 americans who died would have been saved. if we had done did two weeks earlier, 54,000 americans who are dead would have not have lost their lives. it just breaks your heart because it is so possible that we could have done. it that's how "the new york times" today describes the findings of this new modeling from researchers at columbia university, and you know, models, it is just that, it's a model, it can't tell us for certain what might have been, but their method of arriving at these estimates is pretty straightforward and compelling, even for those who aren't scientists and the researchers looked at how transmission of the coronavirus slowed down, starting in mid march, when the social distancing and the shutdown of schools and businesses really did take hold across much of the country. they took that real world data, and essentially mapped it backwards in time, what if that slowing curve of virus transmission, what if slowing of the transmission of the virus had begun a week earlier, when the epidemic was one week younger, one week smaller, in terms of how many people were already infected. what if those things had been put in place two weeks earlier, when the epidemic was two weeks younger? when we had two weeks less of people getting infected? and those people infecting others. and those people infecting others. and this, very simply is, what it looks like. that steep red line on the top is what we lived through. or dy die from. that is the number of the coronavirus deaths through toll would have been if the lockdowns began one week or two weeks earlier. all of that excess death. all of it avoidable. in all of these scenarios, the first american deaths happened at the same time. it's the increase in deaths of time that get slowed down and drastically reduced . "the times" showed it on maps. on the left the actual deaths and on the right the number of deaths if social distancing began a week later. not only would deaths have been reduced by half. the deaths would have happened in fewer places would suggest the virus would have been kept from spreading. somepla places would have been stared entirely. on one hand, this is about the past. this is more data for us to use and evaluate and what has already happened in our government's terrible d dismanagement of the epidemic and raises upsetting and haunting questions for the loved ones of americans who have died. but this isn't just about regret and what we did wrong in the past. this is also about not making the same mistake again. these models would also seem to hold a warning about our next steps that would seem to hold a warning about the future. from "the times" today the results show as states reopen, outbreaks can easily get out of control unless officials closely monitor infections and immediately clamp down on new flairups. just as we needed to stop this thing when it was small from the outset, we need to stop new outbreaks when they're small, too. colombia epidemiologist estimated the effect of relaxing all control measures across the country. the model finds because of the lag time between the time -- because of the lag between the time infections occur and symptoms begin emerging without extensive testing and rapid action, many more infections will occur leading to more deaths, as many as tens of thousands of deaths across the country. joining us now is dr. jeffrey sham shaman, professor of environmental health services. dr. shaman, appreciate you making time to be here tonight. thanks for being here. >> thanks for having me, rachel. >> so i am a lay observer of these things and i read your study and got tripped up by the math, but i've read the reporting on it, as well. let me ask you first if i've explained anything wrong or misunderstood anything about what you and your colleagues have found. >> i think you summarized it very well and i think the important thing that we're really trying to do here is not just look red tr to spectively use the information how we go forward and have to be vehicle lant with this virus. it's really vital we actively seek it out in our communities, that we monitor what is happening with the transmission of the virus in communities as we loosen restrictions and reopen the economy further and further to make sure we don't have flairups and if we identify growth in cases, we have to clamp down quickly and respond more quickly because as you said, if you get the virus when the outbreak is young, when it's in the early stages, you're going to limit the number of deaths that will accrue over time. >> can you put a little more meat on the bones of that basic idea? i feel like it makes sense just when i think about it qualitatively that getting it early is better and if you get it early, it doesn't grow as large. what i was shocked by is the quantitative difference that just one week, just a few days would make such a huge difference in the number of people who ultimately died over a couple -- over a couple of months. can you explain just in may llas terms why the numbers are affected in just a few days response time. >> it is staggering. it's important to quantify so you see how strong that response is. when you're dealing with the growth of a virus in a fully susceptible population, it's going through a doubling process. it's growing. it's very important to remember the doubling processes can really sneak up at you. they seem to start small and insignificant and don't be of much confidence but can swell and overwhelm you like a wave. many examples that you'll hear in the mathematics where they will try to explain it very simply, one of my favorite is this idea you have a pond and there is this inveiasive lily flower that gets into it and every day doubles in size. let's say by day 30, the entire pond is covered with lilies. the question is on what day was it half way covered with lil lala -- lilies? day 29, just the day before. by jumping on this virus earlier, you are really going to circumvent that growth and squash it down and prohibit the number of people who will subsequently be affected by taking early action. it's a very strange and horrifying compounding process that this goes through by which it's spreading through a community. it's really vital we reach out and monitor what is going on in our communities actively. we can't get complacent. there is a risk with that as we move into summer and the virus may be seasonable and less transmissible during summer and we'll get complacent and feel like we have this thing under control. we have to get in this for the long haul and we want to keep it squashed and reduce the levels to a low number of cases per day going forward while we hold on until we can get a vaccine that'sfe effective or effective therapeutics. >> thank you for being here tonight. that key insight that that dynamic that was true at the outset is also true with new outbreaks going forward. it's just a game changing understanding. thank you so much for helping us understand it, sir. >> you're welcome. have a good night. >> you, too. we'll be right back. stay with us. ou, too. we'll be right back. stay with us battling sensitive skin, we switched to new tide plus downy free. it's gentle on her skin, and dermatologist recommended. new tide pods plus downy free. safe for sensitive skin with eczema and psoriasis. and my side super soft? yes, with the sleep number 360 smart bed, on sale now, you can both adjust your comfort with your sleep number setting. can it help me fall asleep faster? yes, by gently warming your feet. but can it help keep me asleep? absolutely, it intelligently senses your movements and automatically adjusts to keep you both comfortable. so you can really promise better sleep? not promise. prove. save $1,000 on the sleep number 360® special edition smart bed. plus 0% interest for 36 months & free premium delivery when you add a base. ends monday. steven could only imaginem 24hr to trenjoying a spicy taco.burn, now, his world explodes with flavor. nexium 24hr stops acid before it starts for all-day all-night protection. can you imagine 24-hours without heartburn? thanks for being with us tonight. i'll see you again tomorrow. same time and channel. time for "the last word." good evening, lawrence. >> good evening, rachel. how old do you have to be to get that reference because that show, "batman" hasn't been on for a very long time. >> the "batman" reference lives forever. it's eternal. >> okay. i'm just thinking today is college kids. tonight is short night on msnbc. you had gretchen whitmer in the last hour and did what you could on the vice p
vice president biden's presidential campaign has started vetting as a potential running mate for joe biden. so we had the governor of new mexico here last night. tonight we're going to be joined live by the governor of michigan, gretchen whitmer, who is also reportedly in contention for that slot. she is also reportedly being vetted by the biden campaign as a potential running mate. president trump of course was in governor whitmer's state today. he was in michigan where he gave a sort of rambly, stream of consciousness, rally-type speech after he toured a ford factory. that was really strange. then even though everybody in that factory is supposed to wear a mask at all times, the president told the press that they were not allowed to see him in a mask, and that's why he wasn't wearing one there, whereupon nonetheless we promptly got pictures of him in which he appears to be wearing a mask. this one comes from the twitter account of congresswoman jackie speier. you know, another day, another thrill in terms of what it means to cover the surreal, surreal presidency of donald trump. governor whitmer in michigan is contending not only with that nonsense, she's contending with a serious disaster right now in the central part of her state, in midland county, michigan, where there is fairly catastrophic flooding and serious worries about a superfund site there under the floodwaters. and that is of course on top of michigan's ongoing battle with the coronavirus. michigan has had more than 5,000 of its residents killed by the virus thus far. only new york, new jersey, and massachusetts have had a higher death toll than michigan thus far. we're going to be speaking again live with governor gretchen whitmer in just a moment tonight. you should also note we're going to be speaking tonight with the epidemiologist whose work landed on the front page of "the new york times" today. you probablyheadline. waiting to lock down cost 36,000 american lives. that is the absolute gut punch of a finding from a new study by, among others, a column university epidemiologist. and this is a complicated study. there's a lot of math here. i mean just look at this for a second. this is part of the study. this is their transmission model. this is from page 14 of their article. the equation on the top there is for daytime transmission. the equation on the bottom is for nighttime transmission of coronavirus. this is like a seriously numer oh logical thing. for the all the math here, the bottom line is the most human thing in the world. the study will just rip your heart out. what all that math is about is the fact that we finally got around as a country in mid-march to putting in broad stay-at-home orders and starting to tell people to stay away from other people basically to try to slow the spread of the virus. and those restrictions did slow the pace of the spread of the virus. and it slowed the spread of the virus to a degree that you can measure with all this complicated math. it turns out that you can then use that math to figure out what would have happened, sort of build a counterfactual model to figure out what would have happened if we had taken those same actions that we took in the middle of march, but we had taken them a week earlier or two weeks earlier. and the numbers just blow you away. i mean if we had acted nationwide according to this modeling from columbia university today, if we had acted nationwide just in the way that we did, but we had done it one week earlier on march 8th, 36,000 americans who are dead today would not have died. if we had acted two weeks earlier, if instead of acting on march 15th, we had acted on march 1st, 54,000 american lives would have been saved. americans who are dead today, whose lives would have never been at risk had we just acted two weeks earlier. but of course, you know, this is where we were at even as of march 9th, saddled with a federal government run by a president who even as of that date was crowing about how, quote, nothing is shut down. life and the economy go on. maybe not too much emphasis now on the "life" part now that we know his dithering for that long cost tens of thousands of americans their lives. importantly, that epidemiologist is going to come on the air with us tonight to talk about what that modeling tells us not just about when we should have started taking this seriously, but what we should do now from here on out, now that we've got 1.5 million cases, now that we've got over 95,000 americans dead. this kind of modeling isn't just about what we should regret about the past and who we should blame for inaction in the past. it is helpful for that, but it's also fairly pre-scriptive in terms of what's going to happen next and how we shouldn't make the same mistake twice. and how we should make the next round of decisions we need to make in terms of public policy here. we're going to be speaking with governor whitmer from michigan. we're going to be speaking with that epidemiologist. that's all coming up tonight. but we are going to start tonight with what appears to be a really, really urgent situation that is unfolding right now in one great american city. you might have seen the headlines today about the modeling that's been done to try to account for how people are behaving now as state restrictions get lifted around the country. in particular, there's been quite a lot of coverage of this one bit of modeling from philadelphia-based researchers who are using anonymized mobile phone data to track how people are moving around more as state restrictions get lifted. and using that mobile phone data about how people are actually behaving right now, they are modeling the epidemiological consequences of these new patterns of movement as the states are starting to open up and as people are starting to move around more. and "the washington post" headline about this modeling today put it pretty succinctly. quote, coronavirus hot spots erupt across the country. experts warn of second wave in the south. and i know that we keep talking about first waves and second waves and that's sort of part of the jargon of our discussion around this epidemic at this point. but in this case it's important to know that when they're talking about a second wave in the south here, they're not warning about, like, a second wave in the fall or, you know, in flu season or when it gets cold again. this is a second wave these experts are warning about that's coming right now, over the next four weeks. quote, according to a research team that uses cell phone data to track social mobility and forecast the trajectory of the pandemic, dallas, houston, southeast florida's gold coast, the entire state of alabama, and several other places in the american south that have been rapidly reopening their economies are in danger of a second wave of coronavirus infections over the next four weeks. over the next four weeks, which is worrying if the second wave is coming like now, if the second wave is going to be here for june. but that basic idea does make sense. it does roughly jibe with what we're starting to see in terms of data in places that are reopening in texas and in florida and in maryland and, yes, in alabama. we are seeing the reopening of those places coinciding with the case numbers hitting record highs and going back up. i will say the numbers in alabama in particular are unsettling. every state has one of these sort of coronavirus dashboard things now. they've at least got a central website where they do -- they release basic information from the state about what's going on in the epidemic. and alabama, the state's data visualization dashboard thingy, i have to tell you is a mess. literally this is the data visualization aid you are greeted with when you first go there. oh, that's helpful. i see now. i understand, right? it doesn't -- there's a lot of stuff on the alabama data visualization website which makes no sense and is of no help at all. but if you fiddle around with it long enough, eventually you can get the alabama coronavirus data hub to spit out this chart showing the growth in daily case numbers in alabama. and as bad as all of their other data visualization stuff is, this is clear, and this is bad. quote, the average number of new cases reported each day in alabama has been higher in may than any prior month. before may 5th, alabama had seen only two days with more than 300 new covid cases. since then, alabama has reported 300-plus new cases on 10 out of 15 days. that's how the rise in alabama cases is summed up and how the state is the worst it's been and seeming to get worse every day. so it's bad generally speaking in alabama even as the governor there, republican governor kay ivey, keeps insisting every day that something else must open up every day, keeps insisting that everything's fine and everything needs to be opened there. that model that i mentioned that's using cell phone data to track mobility and the epidemiological consequences of that, that model could not be more blunt about the risk in alabama right now. quote, according to the model, alabama will probably experience a steep increase in cases in nearly every county in the state over the course of the next month. so as we are going through this political and policy transformation where every state in the union is opening to a certain degree, and in some states, that might be okay. that might be wise, and in some states it really seems clear it is not a good idea. there really is an alarm ringing for the whole state of alabama right now. depending on how you look at it in terms of the state's own numbers, in terms of the state's journalists looking at the numbers, in feterms of modelers everyone is pointing at alabama and saying, this is not good. but if you live in the capital city of the great state of alabama, if you live in montgomery, alabama, specifically, you woke up today to an even louder alarm than everybody else in your state got today because this is what arrived on your doorstep in montgomery as your morning paper today. this is the front page of the montgomery advertiser today, and this is how big the headline is "montgomery hospitals down to one icu bed." that photo there, that is of the mayor of the city of montgomery. that's mayor steven reed, and he really does have a bear of an epidemic on his hands. this shows the total cases in montgomery, alabama, over time, how steeply they have risen over time. for an even starker look, this is a graph that shows not just their cumulative cases, their total cases. this is their new cases day by day. look at the recent days on that. look at how that is spiking. and that isn't scary just in terms of being an alarming graph. that isn't just scary in math terms. it's not even scary in terms of the forward-looking implications for the spread of the virus inside that american city. what's going on in montgomery, alabama, right now is already being lived in terms of real dire consequences. and i use the word "dire" advisedly because that's what the mayor is calling it right now. the mayor of montgomery, alabama, right now is ringing the alarm bell as loudly as he can. watch this. >> whether you believe this or not, it is a serious issue. our health care system is at a critical point right now, and we're at a point that we are now diverting acute care patients to birmingham because of our icu bed shortage. that's very serious. right now, if you're from montgomery and you need an icu bed, you're in trouble. if you're from central alabama and you need an icu bed, you may not be able to get one because our health care system has been maxed out. right now we are short at baptist east by three beds. baptist south has zero icu beds. baptist south in prattville has zero icu beds. and jackson hospital not far from here in montgomery has one. i want us to really think about the seriousness of that because none of us know who may need that icu bed today and who may need that this evening, tomorrow, or over this extended memorial day weekend. >> mayor steven reed of montgomery, alabama, sounding the alarm. if you are from montgomery and you need an icu bed, you're in trouble. if you are from central alabama and you need an icu bed, you may not be able to get one. this is happening right now, montgomery, alabama, and their mayor signaling that the city needs help. joining us right now is steven reed, the mayor of the great city of montgomery, alabama. mr. mayor, thank you so much for making time tonight. i know that you have an incredible amount of work on your plate. thanks for making time to be here. >> thank you for having me, rachel. >> let me just ask if what i've described about what's happening in your city and indeed in alabama, if that comports with your understanding or if i've gotten anything wrong in the way that i've described it? >> no, you're dead-on. that was the information that we had yesterday when we did the press conference. we understand that information has changed somewhat. there has been some improvement but not very much in terms of availability in the community. however, we're still at a point of crisis in this city because of the lack of icu beds that are available even with some beds being freed up over the last 24 to 48 hours. >> i think the thing that is so worrying from a national perspective thinking about what's going on in your city is that as we see rural outbreaks, places where they've got maybe a prison or some nursing homes or a meatpacking plant or something, where it's a rural area but they've got workplace-based outbreaks and so they've had large spikes in cases, sometimes i feel like i'm recognizing this pattern now. we'll get reports from rural america that there's a place where there's only one hospital or there's only two hospitals, and they're getting overwhelmed, and they need help. what you're describing in montgomery is a good-sized american city with a handful of hospitals. it's not like montgomery just has one or two hospitals. you've got a reasonably sized health care system there. but it sounds like all of the facilities in your city are being taxed and that the system as a whole is essentially over capacity even if you factor in all of the different places that people could go to get treated. is that fair? >> you're exactly right. we're at a place right now because of the decimation of our rural health care system in alabama and throughout this country, where we have people that come from as far away as 80 miles in towns that are big and small that depend on montgomery as a health care capital. they come here to get medical care, and they come here to get taken care of. and unfortunately because of that, not only are we here to support our residents and the city of montgomery and the county itself, but we're supporting the entire area. i think what we have to look at is this covid-19 virus has really exposed the gaps in our health care system both in terms of those who can get access to it and those who have access to it, what it can sustain. and we're in a very serious situation here because of the trends that you've highlighted on your show and what the numbers are saying and what has happened here over the last few weeks since we reopened the economy. >> now, the reopening is not something that is a fait accompli. it continues, and the governor continues to make these announcements. i mean it was yesterday that you gave that stark warning about the icus in your city essentially being full and needs to off-load patients to birmingham. and then it was today that governor ivey further relaxed restrictions in the state for theaters and summer camps and schools and athletic activities. i have to think that those statewide decisions that the governor is making, they don't really seem to match up with the experience in montgomery both in terms of the number of cases you've got but how taxed your resources already are in terms of whether you can handle more cases. it seems like there's a real disconnect there. >> well, i think there is. you know, we've had different hot spots around the state over the last couple of months, and right now in montgomery, we're at a point where we can see the cliff, and we don't want to get too close to it for fear of falling off. and that's why we sounded the alarm yesterday leading up to this memorial day weekend. and i think when you look at montgomery, we've tested less than 4% of our population. we've doubled our cases month over month. we've had week to week increases of over 40% this month alone. we're in a very dangerous predicament, and i think parts of the state may be doing a little better for now, but i don't think that the economy should have been opened at the time that it was. i think that we should have slowed our reopening and done some things a little bit differently because what i think it has done, it has sent a message that the battle with covid-19 is over and it has been won, and we're still in this battle. and we can't afford to relax now and lose much of the progress that we've made over these last few weeks. and make no mistake about it. our first responders, our medical personnel, our frontline workers, they've done a great job. members of the community have stepped up to do things over and beyond to help their neighbors and to help their family and just to help out in any way they can. but it doesn't help us if we're doing those things only for us to take two steps back by prematurely trying to get back to our normal routines of what was normal prior to this pandemic. >> steven reed, mayor of the great city of montgomery, alabama. sir, thank you so much for taking time for us tonight. we're going to be checking in with hospitals in your city. we'll do our best to stay on this story as your city continues to struggle with these real high case numbers. but please keep us apprised if there are things you feel like the country needs to know about what you're going through. we'd love to help you get the word out, sir. thank you. >> thank you for having me. >> all right. i will say, you know, there's been a lot of happy talk about the course of the epidemic from the very beginning, from the very top, which delayed our initial response, which likely cost tens of thousands of lives in america. we'll be talking about that more later on this hour. but part of the happy talk that we're getting right now, particularly on the political right, is that, look, the reopening's happening and everything's fine. everything's fine. well, first of all, when people get exposed, it takes a couple of weeks for it to turn up in terms of people getting tested, having positive results, and turning up in the hospital and ultimately turning up critically ill. and so all the premature celebration about look how great the opening up is, is ignorant. but this idea that it's just a theoretical that our health care systems will be overtaxed or will come to capacity as reopening fuels a surge in more cases, it's not a hypothetical. it's happening right now in montgomery, alabama. ignoring that because you like the reopening doesn't make that go away. michigan governor gretchen whitmer is going to join us live next. stay with us. next stay with us refunding our customers a portion of their personal auto premiums. we're also offering flexible payment options for those who've been financially affected by the crisis. we look forward to returning to something that feels a little closer to life as we knew it, but until then you can see how we're here to help at libertymutual.com/covid-19. [ piano playing ] stimulant laxatives forcefully stimulate i switched to miralax for my constipation. the nerves in your colon. miralax works with the water in your body to unblock your system naturally. and it doesn't cause bloating, cramping, gas, or sudden urgency. miralax. look for the pink cap. hey mama, what's up? i only see one price on my phone bill. you're on t-mobile, taxes and fees are included. why can't all my bills be like this? i don't know mama. umph! with t-mobile, taxes and fees are included. and when you switch your family, get 4 lines of unlimited for just $35 a line. and ask your doctor about biktarvy. biktarvy is a complete, one-pill, once-a-day treatment used for h-i-v in certain adults. it's not a cure, but with one small pill, biktarvy fights h-i-v to help you get to and stay undetectable. that's when the amount of virus is so low it cannot be measured by a lab test. research shows people who take h-i-v treatment every day and get to and stay undetectable can no longer transmit h-i-v through sex. serious side effects can occur, including kidney problems and kidney failure. rare, life-threatening side effects include a buildup of lactic acid and liver problems. do not take biktarvy if you take dofetilide or rifampin. tell your doctor about all the medicines and supplements you take, if you are pregnant or breastfeeding, or if you have kidney or liver problems, including hepatitis. if you have hepatitis b, do not stop taking biktarvy without talking to your doctor. common side effects were diarrhea, nausea, and headache. if you're living with hiv, keep loving who you are. and ask your doctor if biktarvy is right for you. there it goes! there it goes! >> and there it went. that was the moment when the edenville dam in central michigan collapsed. that footage was caught on camera by a local resident named lynn coleman, who happened to be recording at the time that that happened. lynn coleman told mi live.com, quote, i shot the video for about 30 seconds, then shut it off and called 911. yeah. the edenville dam was one of two hydroelectric dams that failed the day before yesterday after heavy rains over the weekend. the other was the sanford dam up river from midland, michigan, which has a population of 42,000 people. now midland, michigan, has been inundated with what's been called a 500-year flood. roof tops were barely visible under the floodwaters. hundreds of homes got swamped, many of them totally destroyed. local roads washed out or left impassable. people who live in the area were told it could take another four or five days before the floodwaters recede there, before they can even start to clean up. people evacuated from their homes have been put up in some cases in temporary shelters set up around the city. at midland michigan high school, senior citizens make up about 90% of the crowd that is now sleeping in the gym there, and that of course is not ideal in terms of the other crisis in michigan right now, the crisis we've all got now in terms of the coronavirus epidemic. not a great time to have people sheltering in congregate facilities, particularly mostly elderly people. late last night, michigan's governor gretchen whitmer sent a letter to president trump requesting a federal emergency declaration. as it happens, president trump was in michigan today giving a weird campaign-like speech at a ford plant. the president granted the governor's request for federal assistance to augment the state and local response. that's of note because it comes right after he threatened earlier this week to withhold all federal aid for michigan because the state was going ahead with plans to make voting easier and less risky during the epidemic. today governor whitmer described the damage in midland as truly devastating. she said it was unlike anything we have seen before. she noted the incredibly stressful nature of an operation to get 10,000 people out of a flood zone while maintaining social distancing. with everything going on, governor whitmer has agreed to join us live tonight, for which i am very grateful. i've got lots of questions for her about this fairly desperate situation in central michigan, her state's latest efforts to combat the coronavirus, which has now killed over 5,000 people in her state. it's the fourth highest death toll in the country. i also want to talk to her about what she's calling the opening conversation she had with vice president biden's team, which reportedly has her on their list of potential running mates. last time governor whitmer was here on the show, she really did not want to talk to me about that last thing, but i will ask her again, and she'll probably blow me off again. i'll try. governor whitmer joins us live next. governor whitmer joins us e next aleve it. aleve is proven stronger and longer on pain than tylenol. when pain happens, aleve it. all day strong. your bank can be virtually any place you are. you can deposit checks from here. and you can see your transactions and check your balance from here. and pay bills from here. because your bank isn't just one place. it's virtually any place you are. just download and use the chase mobile app. visit chase.com/mobile. puberty means personal space. so sports clothes sit around growing odors. that's why we graduated to tide pods sport. finally something more powerful than the funk. tide sport removes even week-old sweat odor. it's got to be tide. hey mama, what's up? i only see one price on my phone bill. you're on t-mobile, taxes and fees are included. why can't all my bills be like this? i don't know mama. umph! with t-mobile, taxes and fees are included. and when you switch your family, get 4 lines of unlimited for just $35 a line. you know when your dog is itching for an outing... or itching for some cuddle time. but you may not know when he's itching for help... licking for help... or rubbing for help. if your dog does these frequently. they may be signs of an allergic skin condition that needs treatment. don't wait. talk to your veterinarian and learn more at itchingforhelp.com. this virus is testing all of us. and it's testing the people on the front lines of this fight most of all. so abbott is getting new tests into their hands, delivering the critical results they need. and until this fight is over, we...will...never...quit. because they never quit. joining us now for the interview is governor gretchen whitmer of the great state of michigan. and, boy, does she have a lot to contend with right now. governor, you are dealing with an emergency at home. you are dealing with this ongoing epidemic. you are dealing with a strange visit from the president today. thank you for making time in the middle of all this to be here with us tonight. >> thank you, rachel. >> let me ask you first about this historic flooding in your state. this is a crisis that you could see coming. you ordered people evacuated out of harm's way before those dams failed or were overwhelmed. but it seems to me, as least as best as i can tell, that this is a crisis that is not over. not only have floodwaters not receded, but are you expected there may be further evacuations, that other towns may be in danger? >> we're concerned, and we're watching it very closely. we know too that there is more precipitation in the forecast, and so we're taking this very seriously. i'll just acknowledge the fact that we're in the midst of a global epidemic, on top of that dealing with a 500-year flood event, which are of course becoming more and more frequent. we've got climate change as a part of that but also old infrastructure as well. we were able to evacuate 10,000 people in the midst of all of this, and as of our conversation now, we've not found any casualties. and it really is a testament. i know people see the footage of what's going on at the capitol and protests, but what's really happening in the state of michigan is people are rising to the challenge and helping one another. we've flattened our curve. people have displaced from their homes. when i went to midland, i was so inspired by the attitude of the people who are all wearing masks and chipping in to help each other in the midst of these two crises. and it was really inspiring. we've got a lot of tough stuff to deal with and tough things that we're trying to confront together, but i think you can see bits of humanity every day in this, and that's what keeps us going. >> let me ask you about the way these two emergencies sort of dovetailed in your state. obviously emergency planning when you think about the need to evacuate large numbers of people, as you said, 10,000 people in very short order in advance of an impending dam failure, that's a specific kind of emergency planning. to have to integrate that with social distancing and infection control protocols that are so unusual, so unfamiliar, something that we've never done before this epidemic, i mean how do you integrate those two imperatives? how do you evacuate people and keep them safe and put them up in shelters while also preventing them from giving each other coronavirus? >> well, it's really incredible. when i went to the state emergency operations center to call for the evacuation and to declare a state of emergency on tuesday night, i found myself saying this is a once in a lifetime event. and i found myself saying this again, right? i've said it many times over the last ten weeks here in michigan, and yet here we are. and we're going to grit our teeth and get through this and help one another out. the local emergency operations center was on top of this, and they worked seamlessly with the state emergency operations center. but they've done phenomenal work, and i think that the planning and all of the different agencies, the michigan national guard, the michigan state police combining with what was happening at the local level have really contributed to an organization that helped save people. but we're going to have our work cut out for us, and it's going to take a while to come back from this. there's no question. >> on the issue of the epidemic, per your executive order in the state, anybody who's medically able to do has to wear something that covers their face in enclosed spaces. the whole country watched today as the president sort of personally, gleefully flouted that by talking to the press today on his visit to your state, when he visited that ford plant and he didn't wear a mask, at least for most of that visit. the photos did later surface of him apparently at other parts of the plant wearing a mask. but when he was talking to the press, he was sort of bragging about the fact that he wasn't doing so. i just wanted to ask your response to that. it's public health behavior modeling by the president at one level, but it's also specifically flouting your order in the state. >> well, it's disappointing. it wasn't surprising, but it was disappointing. i think that our big three have just started the re-engagement, right? they are phasing in reengaging after what has been a stay-at-home order, and the uaw members are concerned about their safety naturally. they worked very closely. the head of the uaw has worked very closely with the head of the big three to make sure that his members would be safe when they went back to the workplace. as you saw in the funootage, al of the ford executives wore the masks. all of the employees were wearing masks. all of the press were. and it's really important that anyone with a platform has a responsibility to make sure that they model precisely what we're asking everyone else to do. this is about public health, not one person's or another. this is about all of us, and anyone in a position of power and responsibility i hope emulates and does precisely what they're asking everyone else to do. >> one of the things that we talked about the last time you were here, governor, is an effort to try to get everybody in nursing homes in michigan tested. i know that you have been pursuing that. i know that you've also in michigan been pursuing a plan to try to get everybody in michigan state prisons tested, and that has turned up some large numbers of positive prisoners in some state correctional facilities. i have to ask you now that you're further along into those projects, if you feel like you have clarity or if there are lessons learned in terms of what you do with that information when you've got it, once you know that you've got an epidemic, once you know that you've got an outbreak in a dangerous place for the spread of this virus like a prison or like a nursing home, do you understand what the right protocols should be that go into effect in terms of separating people with the virus from people who don't have it? >> yeah, so obviously with a novel virus like this, we are learning an incredible amount every single day, and we have been really ramping up our testing in michigan. we're now in the top six both in numbers of tests done and numbers per million. that's something to be proud of. we have tested a lot of people in our nursing homes and in our prisons. we have learned from that, and we've got protocols that we have developed in conjunction with our nursing homes to make sure that we are able to keep people safe. this is a challenge, but we -- the more information we have, the better we can take actions that will protect people, and that's why this testing is so important. we've been behind the eight ball as a nation when it comes to testing. we're still struggling to make sure that we've got all of the appropriate swabs we need so that our testing capabilities were up to the maximum on all fronts. we've made great strides, but there's no question there's a lot more work to do. i'm also proud that we have been one of the first states to release racial data that we have been able learn in this process as well so that we can identify the fact that this has a disproportionate impact on communities of color. i'm hopeful that every state in the nation is ultimately sharing that data so that we do the hard work of learning the lessons. this virus is holding up a mirror to the united states of america, and we better learn lessons and come out of this determined to do better. >> governor whitmer, i asked you the last time you were here about reports that the biden campaign had approached you about potentially being vetted to be his running mate for the forthcoming campaign against president trump and mike pence in the fall, and you absolutely did not want to talk about it. and i can tell just from looking at you that you do not want to talk about it again right now. but i'm going to press you on it a little bit because these reports continue. we believe that those opening conversations have happened, and it's a really important thing as the country is trying to figure out who joe biden might pick and whether or not that person is ready to be president. can you tell us anything at all about that process, whether or not that vetting is happening and whether or not you look forward to the scrutiny and potentially joining that campaign? >> here's what i can tell you, that they have got a phenomenal group of people to vet, and there are a lot of phenomenal women leaders across this country who would make a great running mate for joe biden. and no matter who it is, i am going to be a strong ally, and i'm -- because this is a crucial election, and i believe in joe biden. i believe he will make a great president, and no matter what way that goes, i am going to be helping and counting on us, you know, to move forward as a country and learn the lessons from this horrible experience we've been going through together. >> governor gretchen whitmer of the great state of michigan, thank you for at least entertaining my question to the degree that you did. i know that's not your favorite thing to talk about. thank you, governor. and good luck to you. i know you've got -- every governor is dealing with a lot right now in terms of this epidemic, but it just feels like you are being -- you are fielding more than most. please keep us apprised. we'd love to have you back. >> tough times don't last but tough people through. thank you for shining that light here on michigan. we appreciate it. >> i hear you, governor. thank you. all right. coming up next here, we're going to be speaking with the epidemiologist whose study was on the front page of "the new york times" today. the study that says that had we acted one week, even one week earlier as a country while the president was insisting nothing needed to be done about this virus, tens of thousands of american who's have since died would not have died. that's next. stay with us. introducing tide power pods with cat & nat. that is such a large load, don't the stains sneak through? new tide power pods can clean that... whole situation. it's like two regular tide pods and then even more power. even the largest of loads get clean. it's got to be tide. your bank can be virtually any place you are. you can deposit checks from here. and you can see your transactions and check your balance from here. and pay bills from here. because your bank isn't just one place. it's virtually any place you are. just download and use the chase mobile app. visit chase.com/mobile. because i trust their quality they were the first to have a vitamin verified by usp... ...an independent organization that sets strict quality and purity standards nature made, the #1 pharmacist recommended vitamin and supplement brand anna could only imagine a comfortable night's sleep without frequent heartburn waking her up. now, that dream... . ...is her reality. nexium 24hr stops acid before it starts, for all-day, all-night protection. can you imagine 24 hours without heartburn? for all-day, all-night protection. there are so many toothpastes out there, which one should i use? try crest pro/active defense. it neutralizes bacteria for a healthier mouth than even the leading multi-benefit toothpaste. crest. and my side super soft? yes, with the sleep number 360 smart bed, on sale now, you can both adjust your comfort with your sleep number setting. can it help me fall asleep faster? yes, by gently warming your feet. but can it help keep me asleep? absolutely, it intelligently senses your movements and automatically adjusts to keep you both comfortable. so you can really promise better sleep? not promise. prove. save $1,000 on the sleep number 360® special edition smart bed. plus 0% interest for 36 months & free premium delivery when you add a base. ends monday. hey. [ snoring, indistinct talking on tv ] you fell asleep with your sign again. "you fell asleep with your sign again." no, i didn't. okay. switch to progressive and you can save hundreds. you know, like the sign says. get a free footlong. just buy one and get one free. when you order in the app with contactless payment for quick and easy pick-up. that's buy one, get one free. for a limited time only. epidemiological news isn't often the kind of thing that makes you feel like your heart is breaking, but that's what this did today. quote, if the united states had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in march, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak according to new estimates from columbia university disease modelers. and if the country had been locking down cities and limiting social contact on march 1st, two weeks earlier than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nation's deaths, but 83%, would have been avoided. quote, under that scenario, about 54,000 fewer americans would have died by early may. so just one week earlier on what we did, something we know we are capable of doing because we did it, if we'd just done it one week earlier, 36,000 americans who died would have been saved. if we did it two weeks earlier, 54,000 americans who are dead would not have lost their lives. it just breaks your heart because it's so possible that we could have done it. but that's how "the new york times" today describes the findings of this new modeling from researchers at columbia university. a model is just that. it's a model. it can't tell us for certain what might have been, but their method of arriving at these estimates is pretty straightforward and compelling even for those of us who aren't scientists. the researchers looked at how transmission of coronavirus slowed down starting in mid-march when social distancing and the shutdown of schools and businesses really did take hold across much of the country. they took that real-world data and essentially mapped it backwards in time. what if that slowing curve of virus transmission, what if slowing of the transmission of the virus had begun a week earlier when the epidemic was one week younger, one week smaller in terms of how many people were already infected? what if those things had been put in place two weeks earlier when the epidemic was two weeks younger, when we had two weeks less of people getting infected and those people infecting others and those people infecting others? this very simply is what it looks like. that steep red line on the top is what we lived through or died from, right? that's the number of coronavirus deaths in the united states through may 3rd. below that you see the line showing where the death toll would have been if the lockdowns had begun one week or two weeks earlier. all of that excess death, all of it avoidable. in all of these scenarios, the first american deaths happened around the same time. it is the increase in deaths over time that gets slowed down and that gets so drastically reduced. "the times" today also translated these findings into maps. on the left you'll see the actual number of deaths that we've had. on the right, the number of deaths if social distancing had begun a week earlier. and the first thing you notice is that not only would deaths have been reduced by more than half, the deaths would have happened in fewer places, which suggests the virus would have been kept from spreading as widely as it did across the country. some places would have been spared entirely. and on the one hand, this is about the past. this is more data for us to use in evaluating what has already happened in our government's terrible, dithering mismanagement of the epidemic. and certainly this raises upsetting and haunting questions for the loved ones of americans who have died. but this isn't just about regret and what we did wrong in the past. this is also about not making the same mistake again. these models would also seem to hold a warning about our next steps. it would seem to hold a warning about the future. from "the times" today, quote, the results show that as states reopen, outbreaks can easily get out of control unless officials closely monitor infections and immediately clamp down on new flare-ups. just as we needed to stop this thing when it was small from the outset, we need to stop new outbreaks when they're small too. columbia epidemiologist jeffrey shaman's team estimated the effect of relaxing all control measures across the country. their model finds that because of the lag between the time infections occur and symptoms begin emerging, without extensive testing and rapid action, many more infections will occur leading to more de h deaths, as many as tens of thousands of deaths across the country. joining us now is dr. jeffrey shaman, professor of environmental health sciences at columbia university school of public health. he's the lead of the research team that did this modeling. dr. shaman, i appreciate you making time to be here tonight. thanks for being here. >> thanks for having me, rachel. >> so i am a lay observer of these things, and i read your study. i got tripped up by the math, but i've read the reporting on it as well. let me just ask you first if i've explained anything wrong or if i've misunderstood anything what you and your colleagues have found. >> i think you summarized it very well. i think the important thing we're trying to do here is not look retrospectively and look at what might have been, but to use that information to inform how we go forward and how we have to be very vigilant with this virus. we're not done with this pandemic by any stretch. most of the country has not been exposed to it, has not been infected. and it's really vital that we actively seek it out in our communities, that we monitor what is happening with the transmission of the virus in communities as we loosen restrictions and reopen the economy further and further to make sure that we don't have flare-ups. and if we identify growth in cases, we have to clamp down quickly. we have to respond more quickly because as you said, if you get the virus when the outbreak is young, when it's in the early stages, you're going to limit the number of deaths that will accrue over time. >> can you put a little more meat on the bones of that basic idea? i feel like it makes sense just when i think about it qualitatively that getting it early is better and that if you get it early, it doesn't grow as large. what i was shocked by in your model is the quantitative difference, that just one week, just a few days would make such a huge difference in the number of people who ultimately died over a couple of months. can you explain just in layman's terms why the numbers are so dramatically affected by even a few days' difference in response time? >> well, it is very staggering, and i think it's important to actually quantify it so that you see just how strong that response is. when you're dealing with the growth of a virus in a fully susceptible population, it's going through a doubling process. it's growing exponentially, and it's very important to remember that doubling processes really can sneak up at you. they seem to start very small and insignificant and not be of much consequence, but they really can swell and overwhelm you kind of like a tsunami wave. there are many examples you'll hear in mathematics where they'll try to explain it simply. one of my favorites is this idea that you have a pond and there's this invasive lily flower that gets into it. every day it doubles in size or doubles the number that are there. and by, let's say, day 30, the entire pond is covered with lilies. the question is, well, on what day was it halfway covered with lilies? and the answer is day 29, just the day before, because it is a doubling process. by jumping on this virus earlier, you are really going to circumvent that growth. you're going to squash that growth down, and you're going to prohibit the number of people who are going to subsequently be infected by taking early action. it's a very strange and horrifying, compounding process that this goes through when it's spreading through a community. and as a consequence, it's really vital that we reach out and monitor what's going on in our communities actively. we can't get complacent with this. there is a risk of that, particularly as we're moving into summer, particularly because the virus may be seasonal and less transmissible during summer, that we're going to get complacent and feel like we have this thing under control. but we have to get in this for the long haul and understand we want to keep this virus squashed. we want to really reduce the levels to a low number of cases per day going forward while we hold on until we can get a vaccine that's effective or effective therapeutics. >> dr. jeffrey shaman, professor at columbia university school of public health, thank you for being here tonight. that key insight that that dynamic that was true at the outset is also true with now outbreaks going forward, it's just a game-changing understanding. thank you so much for helping us understand it, sir. >> you're welcome. have a good night. >> you too. we'll be right back. stay with us. darrell's family uses gain flings now so their laundry smells more amazing than ever. [woman] isn't that the dog's towel? hey, me towel su towel. more gain scent plus oxi boost and febreze in every gain fling. that liberty mutual customizes your insurance, i just love hitting the open road and telling people so you only pay for what you need! [squawks] only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ - [female vo] restaurants are facing a crisis. and they're counting on your takeout and delivery orders to make it through. grubhub. together we can help save the restaurants we love. there are times when our need to connect really matters. to keep customers and employees in the know. to keep business moving. comcast business is prepared for times like these. powered by the nation's largest gig-speed network. to help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. and a team of experts - here for you 24/7. we've always believed in the power of working together. that's why, when every connection counts... you can count on us. thanks for being with us tonight. it's good to have you here. i will see you again tomorrow night, same bat time, same bat channel. now it's time for "the last word" with lawrence o'donnell. good evening, lawrence. >> good evening, rachel. how old do you have to be to get that reference because that show "batman," hasn't >> the "batman" reference lives forever. it's eternal. >> oh, it does? okay. i'm just thinking today's college kids they might not -- hey, rachel, tonight is short list night here on msnbc. you had governor gretchen whitmer in the last hour and you did what you could on the vice presidential question. and senator kamala harris is going to join me in this hour. we all know that they're on the short list for vice president because joe biden made it easy. he told us it's going to be a woman. i'm not sure what there is to -- what truth is there to try to pull here? oh, am i losing -- are you losing my sound? >> i can't hear you anymore.
thanks for joining us tonight. i'm shawn yancy. >> i'm laura evans in for brian. three people have been bitten by venomous copperhead snakes and are recovering tonight. >> fox 5's will thomas talked with one of those victims. >> reporter: just in the last few weeks doctors at shady grove adventist hospital have seen three poisonous snake bite cases. two patients were bitten yesterday by copperheads. a man walking his dog in germantown wearing sandals and a potomac woman cleaning her backyard for her son's bar mitzvah party this weekend. her is her story? >> i thought it looked -- here is her story. >> i thought it looked like any other garden snake. i picked them up before. didn't want to kill it. i usually pick them up and move them. >> reporter: but a snake bite has debra panich rethinking her approach to the reptiles. she discovered two baby snakes next to the family's swimming pool behind the storage unit. >> one of them was shedding its skin, which is kind of cool. it had half the skin off and so i thought it would be cool to show my kids. so i picked it up and i had gloves on and i was holding it for a while. >> he's sort of a cute little thing. at least that's what my wife thought at the time. >> reporter: it's a copperhead. unlike adults like this one at the national zoo, this juvenile species is more dangerous because it's t delivers a full load of venom -- because it delivers a full load of venom when it bites. that's what debra received in her thumb. doctors comforted her, but fear set in. >> i was calmer, but just waiting to see if the snake was poisonous or not, you know, and if the medicine would work was scary because people do die of snake bites. so it was a little scary. >> reporter: debra's treatment at shady grove adventist hospital included 18 vials of anti-venom. at 2,000 bucks a vial, hospitals regionally share supplies. >> poisonous snake bites are relatively uncommon in maryland. you're talking two to six a year in the state. we've had three here in the last several weeks. >> reporter: a painful lesson for debra, physically and emotionally. >> you can still see some of it's very blue here, but it's nothing compared to how it was. i'm trying to teach my girls don't be afraid of every little spider and little squirmy thing. >> you saw debra's husband there holding the jar with the snake inside that bit her. there isn't any concrete proof we've seen to show earthquakes and heavy rain are all of a sudden sending snakes out of the ground, but the doctor says it's quite possible given the recent bites. there's only two venomous snacks found in maryland, by the way, the copperhead and the timber rattlesnake. >> thanks thank goodness she is okay. i guess the question is if a snake bites you, what do you do when you're waiting for help? >> call 911 first and remove any constricting jewelry immediately in case you swell up like say rings. fits your hand or arm that's bit -- if it's your hand or arm that's bit, don't raise it above your latter because it will spread the venom quicker and don't try sucking out the venom, just for westerns, not in real life because you may spread it orally. >> good to know, thank you. now to the latest from hurricane irene. schools in our area are reopening as power crews get electricity flowing once again after the big storm. students in calvert and st. mary's county schools will return to class on time tomorrow. in prince george's county crofton woods elementary school is the only school without full power. you can expect an announcement by 6:30 a.m. tomorrow. in anne arundel county seven schools are still closed because of power outages. the list is on www.myfoxdc.com. here's a look at power outages in our area. pepco has 2,000 customers in the dark, bge has 5,000 in montgomery and prince george's county and southern maryland electric is down to fewer than 10,000 customers. the earthquake may have caused hidden leaks in the washington monument. according to the national park service engineers sealed cracks from the quake but discovered water inside the monument after the hurricane. a spokesperson says there were puddles on stairwells toward the top of the monument. engineers are searching for the source of the leak but say the monument is sound. damage from earthquake will keep the national cathedral closed at least another week. the quake caused three of the fire spires on the cathedral to break off. there are cracks on the upper part of the inside of the building. the cathedral is considered structurally sound. officials hope to reopen the church in time for commemorative events on the 10th anniversary of the september 11th attacks. i'm in the weather center now with sue palka talking about the after effects of irene up and down the east coast. a lot of people are still affected. >> still flooding going on and look at some of the stats. we know unfortunately there were 45 deaths, the storm total across the region including up to new england. 2million people were left without power at the storm's height and now we're looking at 7.2 billion in storm costs and that's insured costs. the actual number may end up being double that. some very bad flooding still ongoing because rivers are now filling up, especially in new jersey. president obama is planning to head to patterson, new jersey, sunday. here's a look at how they're coping today. floodwaters have start to recede in patterson, new jersey, where the passaic river has overrun its banks. statewide there are still thousands who remain homeless. governor chris christie after touring the damage describes seeing extraordinary despair. >> nothing we can do to lower a flooding river, but what we can do is stand together after its over to help you return your life to normal. >> three days since the last raindrops some storm victims are out of hope and patience. >> my whole apartment, i can't go back in for a month, two months until we do all the electrical work again. real annoying. >> while new york city suffered relatively little from the storm, some upstate communities are literally still under water. >> everybody's property is completely destroyed. this is going to take months to clean up. >> homeland security chief janet napolitano joined by new york governor andrew cuomo got a firsthand look at the devastation. >> the federal government today declared new york state a major federal disaster which paves the way for money from washington. >> we will be helping you with this recovery and bringing this community back to where it was before. it will be a process. it will take some time. there's a lot of damage here. >> there is also a lot of damage in vermont. the state's steep hills and valleys accelerated the rate at which irene's rainwater fed into waterways. many are still overflowing their banks. national guard held couldn'ts airlifted food and other supplies -- helicopters airlifted food and other supplies. >> the water was really, really very high and the force of it was beyond our comprehension. >> boy, it really was. it seems like the pictures keep getting worse and worse every day. >> i've even heard there are coffins floating in vermont. they have come actually up from all the floodwaters. >> now, of course, we have katia to talk about it. it is nearly a hurricane. we'll get a new update at the top of the 11. still take long way away and the good news, right now it's not threatening land, but everybody wants to know is it going to threaten the east coast? let's come back out to the weather center. we tracked that right over here and the very latest we had on katia definitely has it continuing this very speedy movement to the west, northwest at about 19 miles per hour, again almost a hurricane. all they need is about 4 more miles per hour to get that and we're hoping it's going to pass the wayward islands. it's about 1,200 miles east of there. you can see it's forecast to become a category 3 storm and heading into an we'll probably still be looking at a 3. the good news is we aren't worried about katia until sometime next week, but let me show you the spaghetti models. we're still hoping this thing will make a turn because it will be steered by high pressure. the truth of the matter is the models don't go out that far, so i would say some good looking signs, but the fact is until we get a few more days out with our models we won't know for sure whether it's going to hit the east coast. some things still have to factor into it, but the vast majority of storms in that position eventually make that turn, but nobody will say this is a hit for the east coast until we get farther down. >> definitely one to watch, thanks. it's being called a bizarre case of road rage. montgomery county maryland police investigating a story where a man allegedly rammed his car into the back of another man's car and then threw live power lines at it? karen gray houston, you've been following this crazy story. >> we talked to the victim in the case. he does not want his face shown on television. he said he's still afraid and the suspect in the case is a d.c. attorney. can you believe that? police think alcohol may have played a role in this. >> he started punching my window, kicking my door. >> reporter: it was a terrifying incident from the outset. the victim we are not identifying says he was minding his own business sunday coming home from work when he noticed someone in a car behind his following him. >> since he kept following i drove past my house. >> reporter: it happened near the intersection of brewster and worth avenue. when he came to a dead end because the street was blocked by downed power lines, the defendant identified in court papers as richard bialczak got out of his car. >> he proceeded to telling me that his bosses have him following me. >> reporter: the victim says he got back into his own car, a honda civic he had prepped for paint job. that's when the attack really started. first he said bialczak hit and punched his car with his hands and feet, smacked at it with an antenna, then got back in his car and rammed his hyundai into the honda. >> he backed it up and rammed into the back of my car. he backed his car up again and then rammed into the back of my car again. for the third time he backed up and smashed into the back and then tried pushing my car forward into the power lines. >> reporter: he says the assault was relentless. >> he got out of his car, went around to the front, grabbed two live power lines and attempted to throw them onto the car. >> reporter: he said the lines sparked when they hit the ground and caught fire. >> this was a very dangerous act. the gentleman could have electrocuted himself or the victim or any bystanders. >> reporter: people in the neighborhood are shocked. at least one resident thinks the incident smacks of road rage. >> there's a lot of crazy going on, so it's -- you get in your car and hope you get home again in the same day. >> reporter: the lawyer for the suspect says he's going to fight i these charges. his client -- fight these charges. his client faces up to 48 years in prison and $6,000 in fines. it's not officially dedicated yet and tonight there is a major complaint about the dr. martin luther king memorial and now some are calling for it to be changed, why this quote is so controversial next. plus the main suspect in the disappear's of a maryland woman in aruba facing a judge today. find out if he'll be heading home. on the news edge at 11:00 a college football collapses on the field from our area, the questions surrounding his death as family and friends mourn. that's tonight on the news edge at 11:00. not that long ago, many families were priced out of an overheated housing market. but the times have changed. get the facts at remax.com. it's a great place to see all the listings in thousands of cities and towns. with lots of houses to chose from and down-to-earth prices the dream of owning a home seems more attainable than ever. find out what an experienced re/max agent can do for you. nobody sells more real estate than re/max. visit remax.com today. ♪ ♪ ♪ [ female announcer ] coca-cola glasses are at mcdonald's. one free with every large extra value meal... like the one-of-a-kind big mac. the simple joy of seeing things in a whole new light. ♪ the brand-new martin luther king, jr. memorial was unveiled earlier this month. already there's controversy over an inscription on the side of the memorial. roz plater, you've been covering this story. controversy already? >> it's coming from one of the advisors of the memorial dr. angelou. one side of the 30-foot statue of the statue reads i was a drum major for justice, peace and righteousness, paraphrased from a sermon the civil rights leader gave two months before his assassination when he speculated about how he might be eulogized. the actual quote is yes, if you want to say that i was a drum major, say that i was a drum major for justice. say that i was a drum major for peace. i was a drum major for righteousness. renowned poet and author maya angelou was on the council that consulted for the memorial but told the washington post taking the commonwealth out of its context makes dr. king sound like an arrogant twit. out at the memorial site most visitors we spoke with disagreed. >> martin luther king, jr. wasn't arrogant and i don't think anyone would take the quote to mean that he was arrogant. >> it speaks to his values and what he believed in, so i don't see how it reflects negatively on him at all. >> reporter: including lavonna smith who took part of the 1963 march on washington. >> they're still saying what he said, paraphrasing it. if you want to say something about me, say that up there. so they're saying it and i don't think -- there's nothing arrogant about martin luther king. >> reporter: but louis hicks says context is important. he's a historian and director of the alexandria black history museum. >> it would have been better to have captured the entire essence of the statement so that you got the full meaning of what he was saying rather than just a snippet. >> reporter: still the memorial project stands by the quote. in a statement the executive architect says the foundation feels comfortable with the choices we needed to make based on the space available and the messages that we wanted to convey to visitors. we have no plans to alter the memorial. you may remember the planning for this went on 14 years and tonight no plans to alter it in any way, as you heard. >> controversy nonetheless, thank you. you guys are talking about this. i put this on my facebook page to see what you guys were thinking about. we got quite a few comments. williams roberts writes i was taken a back because it didn't seem like something dr. king would have said. now that i know the context i think it should be corrected. lynn coleman says i think the quote should have been done in full context. ray fagan said leave the quote out. the way they shorten it changes the meaning and that is important for history. so a lot of you have comments about this one. you may remember the planning for this has gone on some 14 years as we said. you can continue to comment on this on www.myfoxdc.com. go to our website or go to my facebook page and leave a comment and let us know what you think about this one. history is closing its doors, the hawk and dove that opened in 1967 has the owner saying tonight they aren't leaving by choice. fox 5's stacey cohan live on capitol hill with the story. >> reporter: stewart long came to this town almost 50 years ago, just another lawyer, but in opening this bar he became more of a local legend. varied presidents from eisenhower to obama have stopped in, but long now says he is being forced out. >> okay. everybody. what bar are we going to after the hawk and dove closes? tune in. tune. in. >> reporter: after more than 35 years of pouring beers here james is looking for work. most hawk and dove staff have been here over a quarter century. owner stuart long is scrambling to help his help. long just lost his lease. >> they found somebody that would pay more. so basically they're putting me on the curb. >> reporter: aside from beers and burgers, the pub is known for its powerful patrons. >> the justice office of a beautiful long time customer. i had a beautiful waitress that worked for me he was in love with. >> you know what? at this restaurant they're both here together. >> i'm sorry to hear that. we hope something can continue, but it should be the real hawk and dove. >> reporter: the real heart of the hawk and dove is not just with power players, but in their role is the heart of this community. >> you're not just losing a bar, you're losing a place where people come and commune and socialize. >> reporter: conrad jr. drops buy for free food. >> he never looked down on me because i was poor or homeless. >> reporter: so whether you're in the white house or no house? >> you're welcome. >> reporter: but the bar is no longer welcome here and the final happy hour is one month away. it may be one of the most unhappy hours of stuart long's life. >> hard, sad. very sad. >> reporter: now the name hawk and dove came in 1967 when the bar was opened. that was the time of the vietnam war and it spoke to both sides in that argument. he stuck with the name and the bar has been a force in this community for nearly 50 years. reporting live i'm stacey cohan. >> it really has been a force, so many people. i've been there. who doesn't know what the hawk and dove. is what's going to happen to the bar now? >> reporter: well, it has been bought by a new owner. it's apparently going to close down for some period of time. there's going to be an auction actually where the insides of that bar will be literally auctioned off piece by piece. the names of the hawk and dove has been sold to the new owner, but it's unlikely to remain the same. >> maybe he just came out from the hawk and dove after a couple of drinks. stacey cohan, thank you. congress isn't back in session yet, but already there is a fight brewing between the leadership and the president. a live look at the capitol tonight where the president wanted to speak a week from tonight. well, late word is plans are changing. find out what's behind the move coming up next. president obama changed the date. earlier today the president asked to address a joint session of congress on september 70 to announce his jobs -- september 7th to announce his jobs plan, but speaker boehner said it should be pushed back to the 8th saying the house had a packed schedule. it would have conflicted with the republican presidential debate on the 7th. now it conflicts with the opening game of the regular nfl season. joining me now with more on the speech fallout tonight is major garrett with the national journal. major, thanks for being with us. first is it my understanding correct that the house has to invite the president in to speak? the president can't just set the date, right? >> that's right. these are co-equal branch of government and the president asks congressional leaders tiply before a formal letter -- typically before a formal letter is sent hey, can we work on a date? typically behind the scenes a date is work out and formally announced. not this time. the white house says they cleared it with the speaker's office and the speaker's office said no, all we did was send a letter, never agreed and we have this scuffle, but if you're really thinking about the future of the united states economy, unemployed or part time trying to find a full-time job are you really interested in republicans and democrat not fighting over the policy that might help the u.s. economy but the date of its announcement? >> right. does it seem this white house move was calculated or coincidental? were they trying to strong arm into having it on the 7th because the 8th is not desirable because few people will hear the speech, right? >> no president wants to compete with the nfl especially after the lockout or if not everyone, a good percentage of the american public. now the bigger point here is a joint session. joint session speeches are rare. they're used on rare circumstances, something very, very big. so by requesting a joint session the president is elevating the importance of this speech. it better be a humdinger, be really good and have new innovative ideas or the country will say wait, you could have delivered this speech anywhere. this could have been done at a university or an oval office address. so this elevates the importance of the speech. also republicans know the president will try to stand in the last room of the capitol and say i'm the reasonable one in this room putting republicans on the spot. republicans aren't interested in walking into that trap. they were a bit offended the president was trying to counter program a very important presidential debate, the first one for texas governor rick perry. now the president moved off that one day later. so republicans got a bit of what they wanted, but the president is still a president. it's still giant session speech and he's still going to -- still a joint session speech and he's still going to rule the night on september 8th. >> it still feels like da jay view. >> the big question -- deja vu. >> the big question americans have is it washington function. >> the animosity is biting. major garrett, thanks very much for being with us tonight. a maryland woman vanished in aruba, the main suspect in her disappearance could have been set free today, what the judge decided coming up next. there is still no sign of the maryland woman who dis57d in aruba nearly a -- who disappeared in aruba nearly a month ago. today a judge decided to keep gary giordano locked up there 60 more days. giordano and gardner went to aruba july 31st. he said she disappeared while snorkeling but her body has never been found. giordano took out a $1 million life insurance travel policy on gardner. a judge decided there is enough evidence to continue to hold him. attorney gabriel christian is very attorney with the law and joins us now to give some perspective on the case. were you surprised by the ruling to keep giordano 60 more days? >> not at all because of the events in the past few weeks happening and the fed has piled up. i -- the evidence has piled up. i mean we have the insurance policy. that's a neon sign with blinking lights that gives a basis or motive. we also have the report of two witnesses on the beach seeing the gentleman with wet shoes, the pants he had on were dry. we also have the agent at the ticket counter essentially saying when he asked where's your companion? upon information he received mr. giordano said she's taking another flight. this is the same gentleman who said his companion had been swept away by snorkeling. family members have said this is not the profile of robyn gardner, that she was not someone who really would have maybe gone snorkeling in the way described. >> she didn't want to get her hair wet or mess up her makeup. law enforcement has all sorts of damning circumstantial evidence at this point, but there's no body. how long can he continue to be held in that aruban jail until he's charged with a crime? >> this is a situation where the judges have discretion where they are working the case and the proceeding is sealed, so we don't have all that which the judge may have heard. what we have is what's in the public domain, but what you have happening here is the judge is taking due cognizance of that which the investigators including that assistance provided by our own fbi is providing to law enforcement in aruba and in his mind there's a threshold being met and it can be continued another 60 days even after the expiration of this particular process. >> let me get your thought here. in the u.s. prosecutors have won murder cases with circumstantial evidence. what do you think the chances are in aruba if he is eventually charged with murder? >> i believe the trial will be placed and without the body it will be the equivalent because the standard, the burden of proof is equivalent and i believe with what we have here and the gentleman's record for domestic violence that's in the public domain, i believe it's a case they could make and without a doubt a panel or judge sitting in judgment could find it to allow him to have committed a crime based on this which is in the public domain coupled with that which i'm sure they would put together at the time charges are formally localed. >> thanks for giving us some -- lodged. >> thanks for giving us some perspective tonight. we now know the identity of a man whose body was found inside a burping car in prince george's county this morning. officers were -- burning car in prince george's county this morning. officers were called to the scene very early this morning. 34-year-old antwan henderson's body was burned beyond recognition and the car was destroyed. >> the car was burned up pretty good. any type of labels or markings were all burned up. >> detectives are now investigating this as a murder and they are working now to identify possible suspects and establish a motive. a strange attack in alexandria. federal law enforcement officer charged with assaulting a medic and police officer. julie lavs choked a medic and kicked a police officer who were trying to restrain her. they it were at a home on tides view court after getting a call on a person hurt in a fall. d.c., the most expensive area in the country for child care, we have the innovative way one group of parents is controlling that cost. plus are we really weathered? the farmer's almanac thinks so. but first fox's neil cavuto has your business report. >> stocks stumbling into september as the job market just keeps stumbling along, markets eking out a gain on the last of august trading, but it was certainly a month to forget. in fact, it was the worst one for stocks in over a year and it's pretty much all about the jobs or lack of them, a new report showing u.s. businesses added 91,000 workers in august, but that was much fewer than expected and it comes before friday's big monthly jobs report. that is why the president is pushing congress to renew legislation to upgrade our nation's roads, bridges and tunnels. he says it will save a million jobs, but republican leaders say it's going to push us into more debt. meanwhile the chamber of commerce ceo telling me the best way to create jobs is get rid of all the government regulations that he says are stifling u.s. business. uncle sam is trying to keep two huge phone companies from hooking up, the government filing a lawsuit to block at&t's proposed takeover of t- mobile for 39 billion bucks, those companies say it will keep them from hiring thousands of workers after the merger. that's business. i'm neil cavuto. this fox 5 stock market report is brought to you by your lexus dealer, live life heroically. one last preseason test for the redskins as they take on the tampa bay buccaneers tomorrow night at fedex field. fox 5's sports director dave feldman will be there. >> the buc's coach says his defensive starters will play absolutely not one snap and quarterback josh freeman will sit out as well. other starters will play sparingly. conversely, mike shanahan still needs to see a few things and feels his starters need the extra work to make up for the loss of offseason practices with the lockout. shanahan and son kyle preparing for their final preseason test and looking for an answer to their biggest preseason question, who will be the starting quarterback? john beck and shanahan's family favorite said in the offseason he would be the starter or the veteran rex grossman who started the final three games last season. regardless of who starts under center, safety reed downey says he can feel a positive attitude change for this year's team. >> i really do. i know that there's been lip service in the past. the new league, the new era. i'm trying to take a wait and see approach. i think a lot of fans are, too. i can feel an aura of guys willing to sacrifice to, do what it takes to win for the team. we're playing together and see what happens when we go through thick and thin. >> you're hoping you get better each day. i told our football team just worry about getting better each day. if you do that, you've got a good chance for things to happen. >> the preseason stats backing them up, the skins ranked eighth in total offense, fourth in total defense, more coming up at 11:00. >> can't wait. thank you. coming up tonight on the news edge at 11:00 a local college football player dies after collapsing on the field. his family and friends mourn as they wait to find out exactly what happened. and this man survived an injury so bad his x-ray went viral. now he's talking about his accident and his incredible recovery at 11:00. babies born in cuba, poland and malaysia have a better chance of survival than newborns born in the u.s. researchers study 20 years of data from all 193 nations of the world health organization. figures show the newborn death rates are on par with the united arab emirates. it's not that things are worse. it's because the u.s. is not making the same amount of progress as other countries. you already know child care is expensive. as we first reported last night, washington d.c. is the most expensive place in the country for child care. fox 5 money reporter melanie alnwick shows us one community's solution to the high cost of child care. >> reporter: finding quality affordable child care can be a big stress on families. >> in our budget it's the second highest line item, you will, second only to our mortgage. an astounding amount of money goes out to just caring for our children. >> reporter: a nationwide survey found that costs continue to go up. one year of infant care is more expensive than college tuition in 36 states which can leave parents with hard choices. >> we're seeing more cases where families are trying to split the child care by going to one parent working cushing the day and one working nights -- during the day and one working nights. >> reporter: fortunately for dr. april everett her arlington neighborhood was way ahead of its time. aurora hills family formed a baby-sitting co-op which she uses so she can be a doctor and a mom. >> for me it's working part time and you almost have to pay more for child care. so it made it difficult to work part time. >> reporter: the co-op started in 1963 when one mother couldn't find good take care for her kids and the club is still going strong. >> it's phenomenal because the costs of daycare, child care is extremely expensive if this area. >> reporter: today cindy lurston is watching the everett kids while april is at work. a schedule assures every family in the group takes their turn. >> we don't pay any money. it's just a group of moms that help each other out. >> reporter: more and more families are turning to informal arrangements and they're concerned that could lead to lower quality care, but at roar ra hills co-op has -- the aurora hills co-op has an answer. >> there are very strict policies and procedures and when an opening is available, we take a vote and see if that person would be a good fit. >> reporter: still not everyone's neighborhood is as engaged on this one. the challenge on a national policy level is to find ways for families of all income levels to have access to quality child care. melanie alnwick, fox 5 news. >> before we get to weather, this may not come as a surprise to some of you. the 2012 farmers almanac has ranked d.c. the biggest weather wimp in the country. >> well, you know. >> whatever. >> the publication came up with top 10 cities where weather apparently shuts down everyday life. i guess we're right at the top in this one followed by chicago, atlanta, new york and l.a. you can see the rest there. what landed with us this fabulous weather wimp title? well, snowmageddon. you guys remember this one. let's be real. there was like a gazillion feet of snow on the ground. >> we had 56 inches of snow in winter of 2009. >> that would shut down boston, buffalo. >> that was what i thought, laura. if buffalo got that kind of snow, it would have shut them down. we had 16 inches in december and two back to back snowstorms. however, the year before we got 2 inches of snow and even president obama called us out. his daughter i think sasha said come on, let's be real. >> i think we can be wimpy sometimes, but p.s., we don't have the equipment that boston or buffalo have. >> too bad if he they publicized it, but we had an -- we publically sized it, but we had an earthquake last week. >> and hurricane irene. >> i thought we fared pretty well with that 5.8. >> what i really think this is about, they said in the press release we ranked no. 1 because the snow resulted in the complete shutdown of the nation's capital, flights were canceled, et cetera, but what i really think this is about is the farmers almanac figuring out a way to get us to talk about it. >> in all fairness you don't really buy the farmers almanac. >> but you know what? it's been around since 1818. benjamin franklin may have had a hand in getting the original one started. if this is what it takes, making fun of d.c., take your best shot. >> by all means. >> i will say l.a. cannot handle rain. >> that's why they're on the list, then. i wonder why chicago made e of on the facebook page, what's going on? >> anyway guess what? we have to say farewell to a meteorological summer which almost shut down the city in july it was so darn hot with our 104-degree meeting. august is the meeting of meteorological summer. officially it won't end until september sometime, but tomorrow is september 1st. >> it's a nice end to it. >> it really has been a nice end to it and the last three days have been beautiful. i want you to see what our high temperature was today. it was only 84 degrees, exactly average, so we know we're headed for some beautiful days, although before we focus on that, i want to show you how nice our temperatures are tonight. we'll drop to the 50s, a few spots still at 70, d.c. at 75 degrees, overall a very nice night, another night where we can enjoy open windows and listening to the contradicts, but as i tell you september is -- crickets, but as i tell you september it rolling in, we will have heat returning this weekend. we've been seeing high temperatures out to our west. i want to start with our temperature -- well, this is the current temperature. we had some huge big high temperatures in the 100s. st. louis is 93 at this hour. they were up to about 103 degrees for the high temperature today. so some of this heat will be moving back in our direction. it's been broiling all summer long. they'll be happy to see summer end for texas, oklahoma, kansas. they're actually hoping something may develop in the gulf of mexico that will put some of this fizzle out here, the drought and fires they're getting now. what we think will happen this weekend, some of that heat will get cooled back into d.c -- pulled back into d.c., talking upper 80s, lower 90s. it will feel hotter heading into the weekend and with that heat and an approaching front, we might have to dodge a few storms around into labor day. i almost called labor day memorial day. it will be clear and comfortable tonight around the region, another great day tomorrow, 85, a little warmer, perhaps a bit more humid but nothing uncomfortable. a sunny day, 70 degrees at 8 a.m., by noon about 81 degrees and by 4:00 85 degrees. now as we look at the weekend, maybe some of you are making it a four-day weekend since you got ripped off in the weather department last weekend. saturday is warmer, 88 degrees, a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, a slightly better chance sunday as the front gets closer and into labor day we go monday. while these are not washout days, it will be a mix of clouds and sun with a front nearby not quite ready to clear the area. we get up between 85 in and 78, a couple showers and storms in the afternoon. here's your five-day forecast. rain free tomorrow for the most part. there might be a couple sprinkles in mountains. friday we'll stay warm at 86 but dry and a few thunderstorms saturday, sunday and monday, no reason to cancel or change plans, but just remember them. keep hose in your thoughts that maybe you'll have to watch for a shower in the afternoon. still to come on fox 5 news at 10:00 it's soybeans versus soccer balls in one local county, the fight pitting neighbor against neighbor coming up. on the news edge facebook making a big change, but this could be music to your ears, the details at 11:00. >> today's five-day forecast is brought to you by your local dodge jeep and chrysler dealers. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ [ female announcer ] coca-cola glasses are at mcdonald's. one free with every large extra value meal... like the one-of-a-kind big mac. the simple joy of seeing things in a whole new light. ♪ a farm that has operated for three decades in montgomery county may be closing. the county says the need for recreational soccer fields down county means the farm may have to go away. it's been talked about for years, but some are now fighting to stop that process. fox 5's beth parker has the story. >> reporter: soybeans or soccer ball. that's the debate on this 20- acre stretch of land in potomac. >> these are food grade soybeans. you can see the small beans here developing. >> reporter: nick moravel is an organic farmer. the land he farmed for 31 years is tucked between houses on brickyard road. >> we're probably the only organic seed farm in montgomery county. >> reporter: the land that nick has been farming is owned by the montgomery county board of education. the board wants to start leasing to the county itself. that means nick will be shut out. >> they said can't do it, you know. we're not going to be able to renew your lease. >> reporter: what did you think? >> well, i said why? what have i done? you haven't done anything. >> reporter: the county wants to put the property out to bid so someone can turn it into soccer fields and parking. so began a grassroots effort called save nick's farm. ted duncan is president of the civic association of river falls. he's fighting for the neighbors. >> we're frustrated enough that we've had to hire counsel that, we now actually have engaged an attorney to work on our behalf to try and stop the process. >> reporter: duncan says he's worried about traffic and environmental issues, even more worried he says about his belief that the county cut the deal behind closed doors. >> so that's why there's so much frustration, that the county executive ike leggett has just said we're going ahead with this because this is what i want. >> reporter: but leggett's spokesman says the neighbors shouldn't be surprised. >> the county's plan is based on the master plan which governs how property is supposed to be used and it says specifically if the brickyard site is not used as a school should be used for recreational or ball field uses. >> reporter: nick and the