By Dan Lowry, Mario Krapp and Nick Golledge for The Conversation Rising seas are already making storm damage more costly, adding to the impact on about 700 million people who live in low-lying coastal areas at risk of flooding. Scientists expect sea-level rise will exacerbate the damage from storm surges and coastal floods during the coming decades. But predicting just how
By Dan Lowry, Mario Krapp, Te Herenga Waka ( ) – Rising seas are already making storm damage more costly, adding to the impact on about 700 million people who live in low-lying coastal areas at risk of flooding. Scientists expect sea-level rise will exacerbate the damage from storm surges and coastal floods during the coming decades. But predicting just how much and how fast the seas will rise this century is difficult, mainly because of uncertainties about how Antarctica’s ice sheet will behave.
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bioRxiv:
Pierpaolo Maisano Delser, Mario Krapp, Robert Beyer, Eppie Jones, Eleanor F Miller, Anahit Hovhannisyan, Michelle Parker, Veronika Siska, Maria Teresa Vizzari, Elizabeth J Pearmain, Ivan Imaz-Rosshandler, Michela Leonardi, Gian Luigi Somma, Jason Hodgson, Eirlys Tysall, Zhe Xue, Lara Cassidy, Daniel G Bradley, Anders Eriksson, Andrea Manica
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review
Abstract
Extensive sequencing of modern and ancient human genomes has revealed that contemporary populations can be explained as the result of recent mixing of a few distinct ancestral genetic lineages. But the small number of aDNA samples that predate the Last Glacial Maximum means that the origins of these lineages are not well understood. Here, we circumvent the limited sampling by modelling explicitly the effect of climatic changes and terrain on population demography and migrations through time and space, and show that these factors are sufficient to explain the