The consensus among economists and experts is that the U.S. will experience a mild but short recession in the middle of 2023 caused by consumer and business spending falling because of rising interest rates. Further contributing to.
The end of 2022 is shaping up to be strong, with fourth quarter growth projected to be over 2%. Here's what the Chamber's Chief Economists Committee predicts for the economic outlook in 2023.
Persistent and elevated inflation and rising interest rates challenge middle market firms; current sentiment and near-term outlooks reflect growing pessimism
The RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI), presented by RSM US LLP (“RSM”) in partnership with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, eased to 124.2 in the fourth quarter, down 12.5 points from the previous quarter. While the index remains at a level that signals expansion and reflects the resilience of the broader economy, the decrease in topline sentiment indicates that two years of rising prices are taking a toll on overall business conditions and expectations around revenues, net earnings and hiring.“The fourth quarter MMBI reading doesn’t show that the American economy is in a recession, but an array of economic indicators implies the economy is decelerating into the end of the year,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US LLP. “This slowdown underscores our estimation of a 65% probability of a recession over the next 12 months, and we think the lagging impact of interest rate hikes – which have already resulted in significant financi