Page 11 - Mega Cap News Today

Increase In Core Inflation Wont Be Transitory Bad Timing For decades the Federal Reserve anticipated inflation whenever the Unemployment Rate fell to a low level. In 9 of the last 10 recessions since 1954 the Fed hiked the federal funds rate over a period of time until they went too far. The Unemployment Rate subsequently jumped as the economy entered a recession causing the Fed to slash the federal funds rate. This pattern is consistent especially with benefit of hindsight. The one exception...

Written by Jim WelshMacro Tides Monthly Report 01 June 2021

Written by Jim WelshMacro Tides Weekly Technical Review 24 May 2021

Four Tailwinds Set To Fade Macro Tides Weekly Technical Review 03 May 2021 Four tailwinds developed after the Pandemic effectively shut down the U.S. economy. These tailwinds allowed the stock market to look forward rather than focusing solely on the widespread economic dislocation the Pandemic caused. The Federal Reserve slashed its policy rate to 0%, opened special facilities to provide liquidity to market sectors that were shutting down, and expanded its balance sheet from $4 trillion to $7...

Macro Tides Weekly Technical Review 15 March 2021 Before the end of the first quarter the financial markets are likely to be buffeted by several factors. The Federal Reserve meets on March 16 and March 17 and will provide its quarterly assessment of the economy, inflation, and monetary policy, with Chair Powell answering questions in the post FOMC meeting press conference. Pension funds will rebalance their portfolios to maintain their 60% / 40% allocation to equities and bonds. Please share th...

Written by Jim WelshMacro Tides Weekly Technical Review 08 March 2021

A Fundamental Bull Market or Speculative Binge A fundamental bull market is supported by broad based economic growth which spurs solid growth in workers wages and organic growth in corporate revenue and cash flow. The steady increase in economic activity lifts the stock market but the markets valuation is below the 75th percentile of historical valuations. A fundamentally driven bull market is not dependent on the economy needing an extraordinary amount of fiscal stimulus to avoid a recession a...

Timeless Tale From The South Seas Manic Reddit Chat Traders and Sir Isaac Newton Clearly, Isaac Newton who became Sir Isaac Newton after being knighted by Queen Anne of England in 1705, was not only one of the brightest minds of his time but all time. But Isaac Newton was also human. Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons. The car trip we planned will take us somewhere we’ve never been so before we leave we enter the address into our phon...

Macro Tides Monthly Report 03 January 2021 Economists are forecasting a strong rebound in 2021 especially in the second half of the year. By the end of 2021 economists expect S&P 500 earnings to climb to $170.00 from $140.00 in 2020 and $161.00 in 2019. Much of this forecast is dependent on the speed of vaccinations and how quickly the American consumer can return to their ‘normal’ spending habits. With the S&P 500 trading above 3700, it is sporting a forward P/E of 22.00 which is the secon...

Macro Tides Weekly Technical Review 21 December 2020 When COVID-19 circulated the globe in March and April countries were forced to enact stringent lockdowns to control the spread of the virus and prevent hospitals from being overrun. As the magnitude of the economic impact became known the financial markets reacted violently. As liquidity dried up, global equity markets plunged by more than 30%, Gold prices fell and even Treasury bond prices declined. The Dollar rose as international money flo...