The real key here is the Global Growth bottom. Data has bottomed out. The data has been decelerating for the last year, 18 months. That is coming to an end. Confidence is rebuilding. The data has been bottoming. It is not 100 . All we are looking for markets to go hire is for the Global Economy to revive and overall trade issues do not get worse. If trade negotiations fall urart right now and face fo tariffs go in, you cannot tell me that the data will not get worse. You either get a phase one deal, which is fine, or it falls apart, and we go into phase one phase four tariffs, which is bad. Jonathan joining me around the table is matthew schumaker, kathy jones, and Matthew Hornbach. Kathy, i have been fascinated this week. I cannot find any consensus this week as to what is driving the market. What is it . Kathy it seems like this resilience in the u. S. Economy, the belief that the Global Economy is bottoming, maybe we deal i amade little skeptical on the deal thing those seem to be t
Data has bottomed out. The data has been decelerating the past 18 months. That is coming to an end. Confidence is rebuilding. The data has been bottoming. All we are looking for markets to go higher is for the Global Economy to revive and trade issues to not get worse. If trade negotiations fall apart right now, and the tariffs go in, you cannot tell me that the data will not get worse. If you get a phase one deal, which is fine, or it falls apart, and we go into phase one tariffs, which is bad. Jonathan joining me around the table is matthew schumaker, kathy jones, and Matthew Hornbach. I have been fascinated this week. I cannot find any consensus this week as to what is driving the market. What is it . Kathy it seems like this resilience in the u. S. Economy, belief that the Global Economy is bottoming, maybe we get a trade deal a little skeptical on the deal thing those seem to be the drivers. Jonathan some people believe it is. Where is Matthew Hornbach on that argument . Matthew i
Global growth bottom. Data has bottomed out. Probably bottomed out. The data has been decelerating for the last year, 18 months. That is coming to an end. Confidence is rebuilding. You can see it in the bottoms up numbers. The data has been bottoming. It is not 100 . All we are looking for markets to go hire is for the Global Economy to revive and overall trade issues do not get worse. If trade negotiations fall apart right now and face four tariffs go in, you cannot tell phase four tariffs go in, you cannot tell me that the data will not get worse. You either get a phase one deal, which is fine, or it falls apart, and we go into phase four tariffs, which is bad. Jonathan joining me around the table is matthew schumaker, kathy jones, and Matthew Hornbach. Kathy, i have been fascinated this week. I cannot find any consensus this week as to what is driving the market. What is it . Kathy it seems like this resilience in the u. S. Economy, the belief that the Global Economy is bottoming, m
Trade issues. Data has bottomed out. The data has been decelerating the past 18 months. That is coming to an end. Confidence is rebuilding. The data has been bottoming. Forll we are looking markets to go hire is for the Global Economy to revive and trade issues to not get worse. If trade negotiations fall apart right now, and the tariffs go in, you cannot tell me that the data will not get worse. You either get a phase one deal, which is fine, or it falls apart, and we go into phase one tariffs, which is bad. Jonathan joining me around the table is matthew schumaker, kathy jones, and Matthew Hornbach. I cannot find any consensus this week as to what is driving the market. What is it . Kathy it seems like this resilience in the u. S. Economy, believe that the Global Economy is bottoming, maybe we get a trade deal a little skeptical on the deal they those seem to be the drivers. Jonathan some people believe it is. Where is Matthew Hornbach on that argument . Matthew in the United States,
Doing. The one thing that has not rallied in this everything rally are long dated bond prices. Investors have been positioning for continued divergence in that correlation. We have had some better data recently. Inflation data did see a reversal of some of the weakness. A pretty positive environment for yields. We have seen an astronomical amount of data in this year. It is not in short dated treasuries, it is an longer dated. One of the most crowded markets is duration. You may be better off at the short end of the curve. If you get yields higher and equities higher, that is the pain trade. Jonathan joining me around the table to discuss is mike schumacher, kathy jones, and matthew hornbach. Kathy, lets begin with you. Maybe the biggest risk is the one in duration, not in credit. Thoughts . Kathy every once in a while they do ring the bell. I think with all of the easing, if we look back at previous quantitative easing cycles we have seen, we have seen the curve steepen and long rates