Page 2 - Model Runs News Today

It could still drop a lot of rainfall because its already saturated. the feeder bands will hit it and then that core of all that rain moves up to the north. theres still a lot of changes. were going to see that. because its shifting east, we maas may see some heavy rainfall. irma was such a mess, people were traveling from one side of the state to the other because the track kept changing. well see what happens in the next couple of model runs. >> thank you, tom, with the latest forecast. lets h...

Orleans isnt there today because of that northerly sheer. it goes away tonight and the storm does turn to the north and heads towards louisiana. the southern coast. but where it does it go after it makes landfall inthats the ban key. heres new orleans right in the midd middle of the new model runs. we always think the newest model should be the best because its the shortest distance because the area where they are now and where it will be. 50% of the u.s. offshore platforms are in the cone right...

Healthy, then we expect to makee it making the turn. here are our models, still not in perfect agreement because theyre running parallel to florida. that is why a little deviation one way or another makes a lot of difference. but our latest model runs, two of the most reliable models, have made a substantial shift toward the west. if that is verified, that is bad news for the east coast of florida and really bad news for much of florida because the winds would extend across the entire peninsula ...

Because when you dial 911, you will not get an answer. >> we have teams tracking all of irmas developments from miami to d to day tdaytona beach. talk us through the latest storm track. >> the latest update just come in here from the national hurricane center and talking about this storm incredibly as remarkable as the storm is, incredibly, strengthening up to 155 miles per hour. 2 miles per hour short of being up to a category 5. the reason i say incredible is because the southern periphery of ...

We dont really get that opportunity. were flying sometimes from other places, st. croix and barbados. when we get home, we need to sleep so we can get back up and fly again. what were able to do is what keeps us going. hurricanes happen to form in an area where we dont have the ability to collect a lot of the data different models that run things differently, if they ran the same way, they would all be the same. they dont always agree with what is actually happening over the oceans. and without ...

Heres the track of the system. its going to move steadily west and then slow down, hang out just east of the bahamas and then according to this track take it up the coast. theres a 520-mile wide what we call cone of uncertainty, kate. its still the east coast is in play. now, lets take a look at the models. different modeling we look at. look at the variety of these different models. what we call spaghetti strings all the way 650-mile width between the different model runs, some right over south...

Makes it a category 1 hurricane. now the latest model runs are expected to bring into that category 1 hurricane even sooner so just off of the carolinas as early as tomorrow. that is the concern here as the system continues to make its way up the eastern seaboard. closest point it likely could reach is right off the outer banks there, right around nags head. could see a potential landfall in that region but right now the consensus is hanging barely offshore and quickly exiting off to the east, k...

Impacts. youre either getting hammered by a major storm or tropical storm force winds. we cant tell you which it is about this point. everybody has to prepare for the worst. >> shepard: what is the thinking where the folks at the national hurricane center know? >> we start to watch trends in model guidance. so heres the models. i hesitate in showing you this. they all go in this direction. all of them make a right-hand turn. the latest runs are all staying a little to the east side of florida he...