healthy, then we expect to makee it making the turn. here are our models, still not in perfect agreement because they re running parallel to florida. that is why a little deviation one way or another makes a lot of difference. but our latest model runs, two of the most reliable models, have made a substantial shift toward the west. if that is verified, that is bad news for the east coast of florida and really bad news for much of florida because the winds would extend across the entire peninsula bringing hurricane force winds across here. but at this case, if the center of this does what we re looking at here, it would be really bad news for miami. it would bring the worst of the storm surge into this area as well as those category 4 wins, probably 140 miles per hour dusting even higher than that. let s take a look at some video here, out of barbuda, one of the islands of the storm went directly over. it is the strongest storm that has ever gone over this island, and when you look at t
because when you dial 911, you will not get an answer. we have teams tracking all of irma s developments from miami to d to day tdaytona beach. talk us through the latest storm track. the latest update just come in here from the national hurricane center and talking about this storm incredibly as remarkable as the storm is, incredibly, strengthening up to 155 miles per hour. 2 miles per hour short of being up to a category 5. the reason i say incredible is because the southern periphery of this hurricane is up to mountain ranges. really sheds light on what a storm we re dealing with here across the caribbean. so, where are we headed with the storm system. the latest model is in. what you want to look for is consistency in the model runs. we did not have that the last couple of days, even 24 hours ago. it is absolutely the case that is in place right now across
we don t really get that opportunity. we re flying sometimes from other places, st. croix and barbados. when we get home, we need to sleep so we can get back up and fly again. what we re able to do is what keeps us going. hurricanes happen to form in an area where we don t have the ability to collect a lot of the data different models that run things differently, if they ran the same way, they would all be the same. they don t always agree with what is actually happening over the oceans. and without us coming out here and flying and actually making all these different models agree with at least the initial data that we re collecting, once they can agree with it and we can do that over a couple of model runs, that s when we really see the model track start to come together, and then we see these small adjustments like we saw today where we had a little nudge to the west and that was very likely due to our flight last night. paul, god bless you for the
here s the track of the system. it s going to move steadily west and then slow down, hang out just east of the bahamas and then according to this track take it up the coast. there s a 520-mile wide what we call cone of uncertainty, kate. it s still the east coast is in play. now, let s take a look at the models. different modeling we look at. look at the variety of these different models. what we call spaghetti strings all the way 650-mile width between the different model runs, some right over southern new jersey, others into the delmarva peninsula. look at the rainfall for the next three days, add in joaquin s moisture and we are talking 5 to 8 inches of rain, some areas may squeeze out up to a foot by sunday. so that s the big concern. we re talking flooding potentially. we re in a drought right now in the northeast but we don t need all this rain all at once. gets rid of the drought and what it leaves behind could be a real
makes it a category 1 hurricane. now the latest model runs are expected to bring into that category 1 hurricane even sooner so just off of the carolinas as early as tomorrow. that is the concern here as the system continues to make its way up the eastern seaboard. closest point it likely could reach is right off the outer banks there, right around nag s head. could see a potential landfall in that region but right now the consensus is hanging barely offshore and quickly exiting off to the east, kind of moving away from the shore line as it picks up with that jet stream and then weakening. once it hits the colder waters, we ll see that way make its way in the remnant low. let s talk about the impacts. since it s hanging off the coastline, the heaviest rain about 8 inches will be offshore. off the coastline itself, one to two inches possible in florida. two to four through georgia, but where it s going to be close toast that charlene, that s where you ll have the threat for the heaviest