Modelling Consortium News Today

​​SARS-CoV-2 is the most disruptive virus the world has faced in the last century. In the absence of previous experience, knowledge of the behaviour of this disease and the impact of measures of control, mathematical modelling and other analytical approaches have played a significant role in the global response to the pandemic. Due to the rapidly changing nature of the outbreak globally and in South Africa, mathematical models were updated regularly as new data became available.

Individuals who were already pregnant at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic had a 50 percent lower exposure to SARS-CoV-2 compared with those who became pregnant after the pandemic began and the general population, according to a new model created by Weill Cornell Medicine, NewYork-Presbyterian and University of Oxford investigators.

Though we know how to prevent it, the virus kills about 60,000 people a year. Here’s what you need to know.

While the health economic implications of disease elimination have been discussed before, the combination of uncertainty, cost effectiveness, and elimination has not been tackled before. We propose a modification to the net-benefit framework to explicitly consider the implications of switching from an optimal strategy, in terms of cost-per-burden averted, to a strategy with a higher likelihood of meeting the global target of elimination. The modification proposed yields a methodology to quantify...

The daily Covid cases may double after the third week of next month if the ongoing Covid-19 restrictions are relaxed or withdrawn, a team of researchers has forecasted, based on epidemiological projection modelling. The projection suggests that the present coronavirus transmission rate may follow the current trend till the second week of next month. The rate is likely to start going up in the following week due to increased public movement surrounding Eid and hit the ceiling in the third week o...

NGOs warn: Humanitarian Aid Shortage amid Harsh Temperatures and rising cases of COVID-19 Format Harsh effects of winter in Northern Syria creating shortages of humanitarian aid Sub-zero temperatures, floods and soaring food prices -- combined with rising cases of COVID-19 and ongoing aid shortages -- have rapidly increased the needs across northern Syria at a time when humanitarian access to the area has been severely constrained, NGOs warned today -- six months after the UN Security Council v...

. These numbers are thought to be a vast underestimate due to extremely limited case detection and testing capacity across the country, particularly in the North East.  “With a healthcare infrastructure decimated by 10 years of conflict, the pandemic is threatening to turn an already dire humanitarian situation into a catastrophe, as families in Northern Syria face stark choices to survive. Many cannot afford to feed their families, let alone buy a mask to protect themselves and others. Lac...