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sales of existing homes dropped. and manufacturers had been expecting a modest increase. and inflation on consumer goods was up. add in collapsing consumer confidence and you get sober advice like this 2012 could be a very difficult year. i m on the camp that we have more chance of being in recession than avoiding it. so, they should be conservative right now. their confidence should be down because there s every reason out there that they shouldn t feel confident. getting us started tonight our chief business correspondent ali velshi takes us behind the numbers. john, when you have days like this, it s hard to get a sense to pull back and take a further view, so i wanted to do that and pull back and take a look at the dow which is, you know, what a lot of people s 401(k)s look like, wanted to take it from the beginning of the year. 11,500 on the dow, went up to 12,500,000 and back down in june and july went back up. middle of july you would have thought everything wa