Page 36 - Nalyst Note News Today

"Over the course of this month, the incoming cadence of data could support the notion that the inflationary pressures in the US are past the peak."

"Continued evidence of peaking inflation data in the Aug CPI report can feed into improving sentiment for risky markets," JPMorgan said.

"While this sounds like a bad science-fiction movie, it is unfortunately a real threat," Bank of America said.

"Once [the] US tips from inflation to recession global EPS turns sharply negative [in] Q1 of 2023," Bank of America said.

"The idea [that] inflation would be sticky... was based upon oil rising to $140 or higher," but that's no longer the case, Lee said.

"The weakest time of the year for the S&P 500 has been from September 6 to October 25," Ned Davis Research said.

If inflation cools and is less "sticky" than most expect, it could change the trajectory of the Fed's current interest rate hike trajectory.

"July hard data factor confirms we are in contractionary phase [with] 94% probability," UBS said, adding that it sees the economy in a late-cycle.

The last time the VIX traded above 36 was on March 7, just two weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine and oil prices shot higher.

Every time jobless claims jumped 10% or more above the prevailing three-month average, the economy ultimately entered a recession.