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Predicting the future risk of lung cancer: development, and internal and external validation of the CanPredict (lung) model in 19·67 million people and evaluation of model performance against seven other risk prediction models

The CanPredict (lung) model was developed, and internally and externally validated, using data from 19·67 million people from two English primary care databases. Our model has potential utility for risk stratification of the UK primary care population and selection of individuals at high risk of lung cancer for targeted screening. If our model is recommended to be implemented in primary care, each individual s risk can be calculated using information in the primary care electronic health records, and people at high risk can be identified for the lung cancer screening programme.

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