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SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. Projections for the Rockies are historically foreboding 60 (60!) wins in 2021, according to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system and there are legitimate reasons behind the math. But math does not equal gospel, and Rockies manager Bud Black is under no obligation to worship. Of course, it’s Spring Training, and even in a pandemic it s an optimistic time. But Black has more than dreams. Twice in his four years in Colorado, Black’s club hit upon a pitching-based formula for making the postseason proving that math is not gospel, and often, it doesn’t equal science. In 2017, PECOTA said 76 wins. The Rockies won 87 for a National League Wild Card berth. In 2018, PECOTA called for 78. The Rockies won 91 before losing to the Dodgers in a 163rd game for the NL West title. None of this is to pick on PECOTA, by the way; with an inadequately accounted-for Coors Field factor, the math rarely breaks the Rockies’ way.

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