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Third Quarter 2021 Survey of Professional Forecasters Predict Lower Current-Quarter Growth, Followed by Stronger Growth over Subsequent Quarters

From the Philadelphia FedThe U.S. economy for the current quarter looks weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 36 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel predicts real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 6.8 percent this quarter, down 0.7 percentage point from the prediction in the last survey.
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Calculated Risk

7/16/2021 08:38:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales were increased 0.6% from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 18.0 percent from June 2020. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $621.3 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent from the previous month, and 18.0 percent above June 2020. ... The April 2021 to May ...
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Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

7/15/2021 3:08:06 AM GMT   Daily market outlook on major Update Time EUR/USD - 1.1832 Despite yesterdays initial re-test of Tues 3-month trough at 1.1773, subsequent rebound on intra-day falling U.S. yields and then gain to 1.1838 in New York following J. Powells dovish testimony suggests recent decline has made a temporary low, as long as 1.1800 holds, stronger retracement is envisaged, reckon res at 1.1894 would cap upside. A daily close below 1.1800 signals correction is over and price may ...
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Calculated Risk

Tracking existing home inventory will be very important this year. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of July 2nd, inventory was at 373 thousand (7 day average), compared to 654 thousand the same week a year ago.  That is a decline of 43.0%. A week ago, inventory was at 373 thousand, and was down 44.0% YoY.   Seasonally, inventory has bottomed.   Inventory was about 21.6% above the record low in early April. Mike Simons...
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