Page 9 - Plus 12 News Today

Joining us now from prescott, arizona, von hilliard whos been all over the campaign trail for months. he hasnt been home in years at this point. election day is here. congratulations on arriving there in one piece. that senate race is a dead heat right now. which way does it look like it may break? >> reporter: about 75-80% of the electorate in arizona in the senate race have already cast their votes. the voter makeup has been about a 7.4% advantage for republicans. in the last three midterms, i...

Advantage in early voting. this year theyre averaging a plus 7.4. trump won by three points a couple years ago. was he plus 12 in early voting as well a couple years ago? >> reporter: no. he was at about plus eight percentage points. i think what were going to pay attention to is the independents in this race here. independents here make up a third of the electorate. they are just shy of topping republican voter registration here in the state. in our last nbc news poll, kristin cinema had a 26% ...

Happen. let me answer your question on immigration. president although as larry says, republicans are facing trouble in some house districts, the presidents approval rating is right around where it was on inauguration day. hes got his base with him, number one and number two, the democrats have a plus eight or plus 1/2 in the generic congressional ballot. thats not the same as having that kind of lead in especially these red states where a lot of democrats are up for re-election income senate ra...

The role immigration, diversity plays in making america stronger. one segment that doesnt get enough attention is what were calling the independent blues. they were plus 12 for hillary but plus 20 or so now in democrats. slightly more neal than male. they agree with democrats on a lot of issues. health care, education. they dont think the federal government -- sometimes they prefer state government. i think of indemnify as a modern day reagan democrat. in particular they are concerned about the ...

Strate strategically had it gone down in flames, then they would have came out on november 6. the president has to do everything he can to rally his base. every rally he does his greatest hits. it helped in pennsylvania or in the ohio 12th which only went by a few thousand votes to the republicans in a plus 12 republican district. he cant do that all over and there are more fired up democrats than there are republican. >> when you talk about the greatest hits, were hearing the same thing over an...

A lot of the moderates are going to lose. in the npr poll, for example, which is i think plus 12 overall, its unbelievable. men are 50-42 republican. women are 28 -- 62-28 democratic. its the biggest gender gap ive ever seen. its two, three, four times the typical gender gap, which always women are a little more democratic. i had breakfast way pollster this morning who said whats striking is is in the past college educated women, college educated white women in particular who are married have en...

Mcclatchy newspapers. and bill kristol, a veteran of the reagan and bush administrations and editor at large of the "weekly standard." bill, in the hurricane coverage business they talk about an eyewall replacement cycle, like putting an electric mixer into a cake mix. you see the constant churn as it goes on down through the core. are we watching some sort of replacement cycle in the republican party? >> i hadnt thought of that analogy. thats very good. very good, brian. tying together the two ...

A smaller republican delegation in the house, probably a minority in the house. ironically, it will be more trumpy, more conservative. a lot of the moderates are going to lose. in the npr poll, for example, which is i think plus 12 overall, its unbelievable. men are 50-42 republican. women are 28 -- 62-28 democratic. its the biggest gender gap ive ever seen. its two, three, four times the typical gender gap, which always women are a little more democratic. i had breakfast with a pollster this mo...

Tribal way -- >> theyre politicians. theyll do whats politically advantageous. >> i disagree. they will also have just gotten a lesson that all of them won in a tough pro democratic election cycle. they all won re-election. if you are a house republican sitting in a district that is r plus 12 at this point in time, you survive this election cycle and go into next year, your base is still probably going to love donald trump, barring what happens with robert mueller. your base still will love him,...

And pick targets like elizabeth warren and it will the attitude, me against the media. me against the world. me against the democrats. could that get comparable energy? >> we have to go back and look at his approval ratings in the republican party. at 90%. no one is saying the reality is that the republican party shrank since he became president. only the people who really love donald trump is staying. there is a reckoning am can be for the republican party. its in the form of women. when we wen...