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They may say he doesnt have all the the -- >> i was watching kelly ward, she was in a tough race against martha mcsally. who do you think is going to pull it us? >> martha mcsally. >> even though the polls are close? >> the polls are close, but not that much. i think arpiao messes it up more than mcsally. >> does that graphic say 15% right now? >> 15% for joe arpiao. >> that 15 plus 27. we want to saw thank you to rotini the pig who belongs to one jeremy rosenberger, thanks

Help him any time soon. the wild card is the president. the president knows his supporters and who his most vocal supporters have been. as bob notes the president knows whos been on tv supporting him so you cant calculate what hes going to do in his 280 character platform. i think the white house political operation is keenly aware of the map and that they dont have the money or resources to put into a plus 26 plus 27 republican district even if they wanted to so theyll try to stay away but you ...

District, it brings us tonight to put this in some kind of context. this is going way back, a generation or two. this was is not one of the dists we talked about in 2016 that just flipped because of trump. it was for trump by about 20. it was for romney by basically the same margin in 2012. the big turn happened about the turn of the century. its really become increasingly republican since then. this would not be just a drop-off from trumps levels. this would be a drop-off if there republican le...

To wake up to, the fact that they shouldnt walk the plank for trump or they need to do more to sort of solidify whatever is going on with trump? >> a looming disaster for republicans on the stage of their biggest successes in american politics in a generation. these state capitals are the bread basket of republican politics and power and for donald trump in the midwest. these states like michigan and wisconsin are the places where he flipped a lot of these voters who were democrats. if theres we...

Digits. historically, if thats where a party is heading into a midterm thats a great place for that party to be. the presidents approval rating, donald trumps average approval rating now sits at 39%. its basically been in this range all the way. again, historically this is a number that clearly and overwhelmingly favors the opposition party. and the third trend that weve been seeing is the actual results. this year remember weve had a number of special house elections. now, look, the republicans...

>> every choice has a consequence, man. so before you do something, youve got to think, damn, whats the possible consequence that could happen behind this, you know? and a lot of people dont think about that, man. a lot of people dont ponder the outcome of what they doing. they just do it until they realize, damn, man, this consequence is too harsh, what i just did. the reward dont outpay the risk. and before you know it, youre paying with your life, man. im paying with my life. ive got 50 years...

Congress on both sides that are not the sort of thing that are going to make this more than a moment because unfortunately, voters often reward that. we have a lot of districts in the country. the congressman does not represent one. he represents one very evenly split. >> right. >> the problem that you get, steve king will pay no political price for a comments like that. >> maybe -- >> it may do him some good. thats a big part of why we have these moments in time that are meaning. are different....

>> every choice has a consequence, man. so before you do something, youve got to think, damn, whats the possible consequence that could happen behind this, you know? and a lot of people dont think about that, man. a lot of people dont ponder the outcome of what they doing. they just do it until they realize, damn, man, this consequence is too harsh, what i just did. the reward dont outpay the risk. and before you know it, youre paying with your life, man. im paying with my life. ive got 50 years...

Consequence, man. so before you do something, youve got to think, damn, whats the possible consequence that could happen behind this, you know? and a lot of people dont think about that, man. a lot of people dont ponder the outcome of what they doing. they just do it until they realize, damn, man, this consequence is too harsh, what i just did. the reward dont outpay the risk. and before you know it, youre paying with your life, man. im paying with my life. ive got 50 years, man? you know, thats...

So before you do something, youve got to think, damn, whats the possible consequence that could happen behind this, you know? and a lot of people dont think about that, man. a lot of people dont ponder the outcome of what they doing. they just do it until they realize, damn, man, this consequence is too harsh, what i just did. the reward dont outpay the risk. and before you know it, youre paying with your life, man. im paying with my life. ive got 50 years, man? you know, thats a life. im 27. 50...