Page 19 - Plus 3 News Today

Gallup did a poll of 9,000 people before the election, which by the way this led to some of the confusion on the polls and that showed this electorate was plus 3 r, plus 3 republicans. gallup. thats a huge poll and now they do a poll that says, 47% of americans identify democrats or independents who consider themselves democrats, versus 42% who lean republican. so, something feels like its shifting chris. >> well, i mean, there are a lot of things that go into that and this is the kind of stuff ...

Our latest daily tracking poll, obama 49%, romney 48%. so im going to do what a lot of people do. im going to wait to see what michael barone says about the county by county turnout in some key swing states. megyn: i want to ask you what emerged now is a discussion about whether these polls that have shown president obama a little ahead. a couple show him a little ahead and there is a question about whether they are assuming this electorate will look like it did in 2008. the dems final number wa...

Obama into the white house last time. >> d plus 7. in 2008 obama won by seven points over mccain, and theyre kind of counting on a turnout -- not in every state, but of a d plus 7. if its plus 7 or plus, obamas going to win. if its d plus 3 or a republican edge -- because they think they have an edge in independents -- then romneys going to win. its so interesting, though, ive been reading these polls, and real clear politics which does a really good job, its a web site, realclearpolitics.com, a...

If its plus 3 republican in those swing states its tough to see how obama wins and that explains the conflict. bill: the point you make is well-taken, because you can dissect these numbers anyway you want and you can find information to confirm what youre looking for. megyn: right, right, that is exactly right. truly having tried to just be an honest consumer of what everybody is putting out on screen and off screen on all the channels my impression today is no one knows, they are all trying to ...

Costs, the facts behind the tax policy. so even if you set aside the proposition about whether you are winning or losing, because all of these things can be temporary at the beginning of the campaign, but getting to the details in a factual way is important. if you cannot boil down your message as candidate, never mind about a bumper sticker but a sound bite, how you express it to voters thats exactly the problem that they are in. the details are difficult but difficult not to explain but diffic...

Try to balance it out. >> my friend carl has a point but there is also a counter point to that. if you look at what hes saying, 2004, there was no plus 3, in 2008 it was plus 7. the 2004 election if you kept doing that would never have shown the 2008 turnout. they dont connect. now looking back and saying look what happened in 2008 -- >> here is my theory. they are both parties are actually declining. and for some reason people who say they are republicans declining faster than the democrats. mo...

while the air force investigates the deadly crash of an eighth plane. one of these based in charlotte, north carolina. we expect to learn more in a news conference this afternoon. we know that four of the six crew members were killed, including this man, lieutenant colonel mike mckiel who spoke to one of our affiliates on saturday. lizzie oleary with the latest out of washington. whats the latest? >> reporter: latest is that they are investigating the cause of this crash while the othe...

Time. forget substance. this is a terrible way to negotiate. it signals weakness and desperation to iran and you can pet they will take advantage of it. i want to show our viewers what you predicted the iranians would do during the course of these negotiations. >> i think that important of irans strategy to throw sand in our eyes to you offer meaningless concessions in advance of the next negotiation session in baghdad next week, all intended to drag this thing out as long as possible. megyn: do...

You ramp up the coverage, get the countdown clock, analyze it and the next morning if you ask 100 people what was said in speech, two, three could probably tell you. >> and this is the way it is every year. one of the pieces of evidence, gallup went back and looked at every state of the union they had polling for. this went back to carter, tracking polling right after state of the unions. the average bump a president got from the state of the union, and thats a big speech. the best speech writer...

Situation, talks will be necessary so the fact that iran is willing to come back to what we call the p-5 plus 1, europeans call e-p plus 3. they talk to iran. good thing -- but the real question is not whether it will talk. real question is whether they are willing to deal. thats a very good question. >> well, you have to wonder whats going on now because we have president obamas national security adviser in israel for the talks about irans nuclear program. how close do you think that we are, p....