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We have a big week for data and only four days to digest it. Some of the punditry will get lost in the data while others continue the fruitless effort to reconcile market prices with economic fundamentals. ( Schwab, Paul Schatz). Retail sales and housing data will be most important. Industrial production will provide evidence about the strength of the recovery. I normally join in these efforts, but something special happened last week. My key questions have been answered by: A letter from Mr. M...

We have a big week for data, including both ISM reports and a focus on employment. Investors thirst for more data about the strength of the economic rebound. We are also in the heart of earnings season, worried about vaccines, and wondering if Washington will provide more help. Despite this jam-packed agenda the financial media highlight a story that is much more fun. Someday our focus can return to data and earnings. For now, many are worried, asking: How will the Reddit Rebellion affect my in...

What does a Biden Administration mean for my investments? Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons. Last Week Summary In my last installment of TWA, I suggested the need for substantial earnings growth to justify stock valuations. I also introduced Springtime Blossom Indicators - what we really need to monitor in our search for progress. It is a good reference, particularly the “What to Watch" column. I will update it when there is an int...

We have an array of interesting data in the week ahead including inflation news, more employment numbers, and sentiment from consumers and small businesses. Most importantly we have the start of earnings season. Despite this, the political story will dominate, at least for a bit longer. While this is newsworthy, it is not the key element for investors. What best depicts this challenge to find the right focus? Let us turn to Chance the Gardener! The simple-minded gardener who knows only what he ...

We can enjoy two light weeks for economic reports. Both are holiday-shortened, implying lower volume but not necessarily lower volatility. Personal income and spending will be especially interesting, along with updated unemployment claims data. It is also an especially important time to monitor sentiment. The biggest reports are scheduled for the first week of 2021. The calendar will prompt many to offer specific and complex forecasts for next year. Good luck with that! It is necessary for inve...

We have another normal week for economic reports, featuring retail sales and housing data (NAHB Index, building permits, housing starts). Industrial production is from November, so it is a bit stale. Jobless claims continue to be a current and reasonably reliable indicator. The economy remains secondary for market participants. It has been ignored for months, so why change now? Attention has mostly been on more fiscal stimulus, with daily market moves registering even small hints of progress. I...