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Fed to Cut Rates in September and Maybe Once More This Year: Reuters Poll
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Fed to cut rates in September and maybe once more this year | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Fed to cut rates in September and maybe once more this year: Reuters poll
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A key indicator of an oncoming recession implied by the U.S. bond market is no longer reliable, according to nearly two-thirds of strategists polled by Reuters. A persistent negative spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields is a key input into many analysts' models as a reliable predictor of recession, having occurred in the lead-up to nearly all recessions since 1955. The yield curve has been inverted for more than 20 months now - currently by 46 basis points - but most of the recent discussion in markets has been about the probability of no recession or even the risk of a re-acceleration in economic growth.