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So, are we going to have an El Nino, or what?

Officially, 2014 closed without an official El Nino. Probably. If you went back in a time machine to the spring, and told El Nino watchers that, they would be a little surprised, but they would also say something like, "Yeah, well, you know, we keep saying this is hard to predict."
Pacific Ocean El Nino International Research Institute For Climate Australian Bureau Of Meteorology Columbia University Japan Meteorological Agency

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