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April 1, 2023
In this article, MCM focuses on the Treasury yield curve, which is sending its sharpest warning about recession risks since 1981.
February 6, 2023
Even in a terrible year for stocks such as 2022, there were three strong rebounds as investors experienced bouts of optimism for one reason or another.
December 20, 2022
In this article, I examine the effect of the Fed’s actions on major markets and provide a near-term (1-2 quarters) market outlook.
September 9, 2022
Stocks attempted to rally in the first half of the month but turned decisively down on August 19. The highly-anticipated speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Aug 26, in which he reiterated his hawkish view on inflation (see Economic Update), reinforced the negative trend. The S&P 500 ended August down 4.2%.
January 5, 2022
By Roman Chuyan, CFA Our 6-month Equity model’s forecast for the S&P 500 drops to -8.4%, and the Short-Term Risk model continues with a Sell signal. Both models dictate continued defensive positioning. I review the 2021 highlights and offer my thoughts on what lies ahead in the new year. I hope you and your family hadRead More
February 10, 2021
By Roman Chuyan, CFA Our Equity Model’s 6-month forecast for the S&P 500 turned significantly negative on economic factors and record market valuation. Along with our Short-Term Risk model, this dictates defensive positioning. Our 6-month Equity Model turned significantly negative at ‑7.9% in January on economic factors. The economic component of the model dropped sharply and turned negative this month, to -4.2% (see Market Outlook). In addition, market valuation has risen to extremely o...
December 10, 2020
We have captured most of the market upside in November. While our 6-month Equity Model continues to indicate Positive Fundamentals, our Short-Term Risk model now gives a Sell signal because of exuberant investor sentiment. The stock market rebounded strongly as investors turned optimistic after the election and positive vaccine news. November was the best month since April – the S&P 500 gained 11% in the month, taking its year-to-date gain to 14%. We had increased our equity exposure to a ma...