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July 16, 2024
Whether you embrace or reject etfs, they are here to stay. The flows signal Broader Market trends. Lets check in with Eric Balchunas. A snapshot of the flows and the theme is risky assets like the stocks. Eric thank you, scarlet. Im feeling like a broken record. Every week, i am saying people are excited about the fed being accommodative. It felt like about two months. Another week of the same thing. 15 billion into etfs. We have spy, the cuse. You also have ibv and some vanguard funds. Both maj...
July 16, 2024
This creates enough uncertainty to where even the strong payrolls report that we got today is likely going to secure that cut. We are going to get a 50 basis points one way or the other. Mr. Trump now knows the buttons he has to press to get the outcomes that he wants. Good policy, bad policy, the white house is listening. That is why you are seeing the president be so aggressive right now. To the extent trump continues to push on the trade war and that hurts Economic Growth and creates these do...
July 16, 2024
Issue will dominate a thinking at the fed. You have to extrapolate this and you can about the fed delivering a series of cuts. Strong payrolls report that we cant today is likely going to secure that cut. We are going to get a 50 basis points one way or another. Mr. Trump now knows the funds he has to press to get the outcomes that he wants. That is why you are sitting president from so aggressive right now. To the extent trump continues to push on the trade war and that creates a downside risks...
July 16, 2024
Delivering a series of cuts. This creates enough uncertainty where even the strong payrolls report that we got today is likely going to secure that cut. We are going to get a 50 basis points one way or another. R. Trump now knows the buttons he has to press to get the outcomes that he wants. Good policy, that policy, the white house is listening. That is why you are seeing the president be so aggressive right now. To the extent trump continues to push on the trade war and that hurts Economic Gro...
July 7, 2024
Morning. This bloomberg surveillance. More than a decade since the last one, s p Global Rating the gene the top rating for u. S. Of america. Fitch follows up after the close yesterday with this quote, the written downgrade of u. S. Reflects the expected physical deterioration over the next three years. The erosion of governance relative to aa and aaa rated peers. Whether it is justified, and if it matters, are two different questions. Lisa i would agree as this is the second Major Company to dow...
July 3, 2024
Tom it is a mugshot of in yield and it is very technically elegant. Dean curnutt to start is strong in the 6 00. He will talk about that. A massive correlation in currency markets. Jonathan yields of, dollar stronger . Tom dollar stronger but it is the way the dollar is stronger. Maybe the japanese are fighting to keep the yen off of 1. 50. The answer is markets are moving. Tom can this equity markets jonathan can this equity market lived with it . Equities could work in a hybrid environment. Th...
July 1, 2024
to the program ukrainian president vladimir zalinski says russias invasion of ukraine is just the start of a wider plan to evade other places in europe. thats after arrest them at mina care . they top russian general outline plans to seize don bass and link it with crimea, which was annexed by russian forces in 2014. now the general says russia wants to open a land corridor all the way to a trans mystery or as a breakaway russian back part of moldova, a daily money, which is a whole bo...
June 30, 2024
Bear market than a grizzly bear market. We dont need to worry about the 10year getting too expensive. Weve seen 3 in the past few years. Our work suggests the sort of positive effect on the Financial Sector of the 10year moving higher right now overwhelms the potential negative effect of the valuation compression as rates rise. We have been talking about this rate rotation for years. Returns, we are only three weeks into the year but they are not very good. Maybe you start to see as rates move h...
June 30, 2024
Bear market. We dont need to worry about the 10year getting too expensive. Our work suggests the sort of positive effect on the Financial Sector of the 10year moving higher, the potential negative effect of the evaluation compression. We have been talking about this great rotation. , they are nots clearly good. Last year they were just ok. Maybe you are starting to see rates move higher. People are moving to equities in the bond market. If the yield gets up to 285, perhaps it will get up to 3 , ...
June 30, 2024
Expensive. Weve seen 3 in the past few years. Our work suggests the sort of positive effect on the Financial Sector of the 10year moving higher right now overwhelms the potential negative effect of the valuation compression as rates rise. We have been talking about this rate rotation for years. People are going to go out of bonds into equities. Bond returns, we are only three weeks into the year but they are not very good. Maybe you start to see as rates move higher and returned sir to move high...