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CA/NY vital for Democratic comeback; new maps in NC/OH could give Republicans a buffer.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The overall battle for House control in 2024 starts as a Toss-up.— Relatively similar numbers of Democratic and Republican seats start in the most competitive Toss-up and Leans categories, although Republicans start with a few more targets in large part because of the likelihood that they will benefit from redistricting in North Carolina and Ohio.— Big blue states California...

Is the red wave gaining steam?

Plus 6 rating changes.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races.— So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. The lion’s share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating that Democrats are playing significantly more defense than Republicans.— The vast majority of the districts we rate as the most competitive — those in the Toss-up or Leans cat...

Written by John Couvillon of JMC Enterprises/JMC Analytics and Polling JMC writes that theoretically, the Midterms should be a good year for GOP candidates. However, there are several challenges to consider. Now that election season is here (technically, three more states – and Louisiana on Novemb

The most question marks about 2022 lie west of the Mississippi; rating changes in MD, NY, OR.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The 5 governorships we see as Toss-ups are all located west of the eastern time zone: Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Wisconsin, and — now — Oregon.— The large number of incumbents running this year may limit the number of governorships that change hands.— Democrats continue to have the 2 clearest pickups, the open seats in Maryland and Massachusetts. However, Democrats a...

Colorado’s primary took place on Tuesday, June 28. The following is an outline of the governor, secretary of state and 23 state House and Senate primary races and results. The general...

Before we get to our takeaways from yesterday’s primaries, a quick pit stop in the Ocean State is in order.

Political reporters have been criticized for covering election campaigns as if they were sporting events rather than serious contests for elective offices. Instead of writing about such things as candidate

Median House seat will still sit a couple of points to the right of the nationKEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— With the national House map nearly complete, it appears that the overall map still leans toward Republicans.— However, this GOP bias is not nearly as strong as it was a decade ago.— We rate and analyze the new Missouri and New York congressional maps.

If Halloween had come a week later this year, theres a good chance a number of the Colorado Republicans running in the U.S. Senate primary might have dressed up as