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It’s important to focus less on scary macro-market movements and more on a company’s probability of delivering growth.

Twitter, therefore, has a 36.5% probability of delivering the growth implied in its share price.

Darts is a game of precision that seems easy at first but becomes very, very hard by the end, just like active stock management.

The ETF has sold off substantially more than the general market, losing a whopping 60% since topping out last year, of which, 32% has occurred year-to-date.

The company has a 2.0% probability of NOT being able to deliver on the growth implied in its share price.

This article was first published on New Age Alpha here. Imagine you’re sitting, minding your own business, and your buddy, Louie, shoulders up to you and begins his sentence saying, “What are the odds…?” With such an introduction, his next words will almost certainly detail a plan with little chance of success. Whether it involves

The thinking behind life insurance can be utilised in the building of share portfolios.

The value of a security should be determined via an actuarial process that strips out any and all vague and ambiguous information.

How the human factor scores of a few prominent companies has changed from 2021 to 2022.

How do you define risk? For Billy Beane, the famed general manager of the A’s, risk meant something far different to him than the team’s scouts.