staff to the obama white house and ceo of macina group. also with us, rich lowry, editor in chief at the national review and nbc news political analysts. i want to thank you both for joining us. jim, let me start with you because i mentioned, i don t mean to bring up bad memories for the past for democrats here, but i mentioned the 2014 midterm and that obama s second midterm, the numbers on paper, when you look at the generic ballot right now, look somewhat like they did in 2014. are we looking at 2014. do you think we re looking at 2014 playing out again here, or is this something that democrats can do for that could happen in the next 17 days that could change the trend that we have seen this week? i am wondering whether or not it s more like 2018 you showed the numbers earlier, that was interesting, the dems had a seven-point lead since
and ceo of macina group. also with us, rich lowry, editor in chief at the national review and nbc news political analysts. i want to thank you both for joining us. jim, let me start with you because i mentioned, i don t mean to bring up bad memories for the past for democrats here, but i mentioned the 2014 midterm and that obama s second midterm, the numbers on paper, when you look at the generic ballot right now, look somewhat like they did in 2014. are we looking at 2014. do you think we re looking at 2014 playing out again here, or is this something that democrats can do for that could happen in the next 17 days that could change the trend that we have seen this week? i am wondering whether or not it s more like 2018 you showed the numbers earlier, that was interesting, the dems had a seven-point lead since they took over the house, but in the same election, the republicans have picked up seats in the senate, because
republicans are that big wave in obama s term. lower in 2006 when democrats and george w. bush s second midterm year. but it is notably here, higher than it was at this point in 2014. this was barack obama s second midterm. this was a wave that was kind of a late building wave. it kind of a lot of folks by surprise, in 2014, ended up flipping the senate the republicans did, they got to their highest level in the house, since 1928, and that really didn t materialize in the polls until late. it may be significant or notable at least that the number is ahead where it was in 2014. it hasn t been the case the last couple of weeks. you mentioned the. here s a clue what maybe happened. there is a poll from the new york times. they were asking yesterday was a top issue in your mind? you had the economy and inflation together, that s 44% saying economy or inflation. we are getting near half the electorate here citing the inflation or economy as a top issue. we ve seen republicans have an
democrats make huge progress. the president got a lot done and now here we are. things are looking tight. it s been an eventful year politically. we ve seen that expressed in the polling. let s take a look at where it is right now. what you re seeing here is the generic ballot. the average and the generic ballot. this is the poll question where we, who want to control congress, republicans or democrats. the republicans now have an average lead, take all the different poles out there, 2. 2 points for republicans three weeks out. how does that compare at this point to a recent wave elections? you can see, it s lower than it was an 18 when democrats had their wave. they were seven points at this point. lower than in 2010 when republicans had that big wave in obama s first term, and lower in 2006 when democrats and george w. bush s second midterm year. but it is notably here, higher than it was at this point in 2014. this was barack obama s second midterm. this was a wave that was kind o
that s the biggest i have seen the republican lead. if you look in context, recent midterm waves. these are all wave elections in the midterms. this is where the generic ballot was at this point. you can see it s not on par with what democrats had in the two big wave years, not on par with what republicans had in 2010, when they took 63 seats and won the house. now it s the first time we have seen this in a long time. the republican lead and the generic ballot is larger than it was at this point in 2014. the significance of that is if you remember the 2014 midterm, barack obama s second midterm, it was kind of a slow, and late building wave. to the point that even on election night, the magnitude of it caught some folks by surprise, but that s when republicans took back the u.s. senate in 2014. they reached their highest level in terms of house seats since 1928. 2014 was a late building wave. you saw that number spike in the last couple of weeks. you ve now seen this one go from the re