Page 3 - Second Midterm News Today

Understatement to say that the climate is trending toward the democrats. numbers quite overwhelming. midterm election, single biggest factor, the presidents approval rating, latest poll at 36%. 36% approval with registered voters. he has hovered around 40% throughout the year. most smart republicans tell you that the president must be above 40, would prefer him at 45 to have any chance for the republicans to keep the house. 37 weeks to go. bad news. 36, this translates when voters are asked whic...

Those off. there are some republicans running for senate and governor. they are not really retiring and seeing opportunity this year. if you look at the core group who are retiring and walk ag in away. that number brings you down to 22. think of the last major wave election we had in the midterm. barack obamas first midterm, democrats got shalacked. half the number we got now. go back to 2006, bushs second midterm and how many did you have? you had eight. if you want to find a comparable number ...

Group who are actually retiring and walking away, that number brings you down to 22, but that 22, by comparison, think back to one of the last major wave elections we had in a midterm, you had it there, 2010, barack obamas first midterm, democrats got shellacked. how many democrats fit into that category of pure retirements in 2010? it was 11. so, half the number we had now. go back to 2006, bushs second midterm. republicans got shellacked then, how many did you have? you had eight. so, if you w...

Group, who are actually retiring and walking away, that number brings you down to 22. >> okay. >> but that 22 by comparison, think back to one of the last major wave elections we had in a midterm, you had it there, 2010. barack obamas first midterm. democrats got shellacked. how many democrats fit into that category of few retirements in 2010? it was 11. so half the number we had now. go back to 2006, another one of those midterms, bushs second midterm, republicans got shellacked then. how many ...

Joining us now is the great steve kornacki. steve, thank you for being here tonight. >> happy to be here. >> so looking at those numbers, obviously, theres some democrats who are leaving too, but its about double the number of republicans. is it actually a lot? is this a lot of retirements on the republican side? >> it is, yeah. and heres how i kind of look at those numbers. that 39, you can take some of those off, because there are republicans who are running for the senate, running for governo...

Who else was paying attention to the story? who was paying attention to the jobs report on friday which is a magnificent report and should have been talked about all weekend. 15 other things were talked about. >> bill: youre making the case hes doing everything and you cant make it as a party if thats the case. >> what im saying is you have to do other things. the president alone cant -- you cant have the false assumption of a massive landslide. i worked for reagan. he was a star and won in a la...

Safe republican seats. this is an 11-point plus in the cooke partisan report and thats the best in the business. its a race we should have won and trump carried by 20 points and we should have won it. >> bill: tim murphy, the republican, force to resign. he ran uncontested 10 years or maybe longer and trump wins the campaign there. >> midterms are always different you get 50% to 60% in a presidential race and 40% in a midterm. it should be a warning sign. >> bill: a warning to republicans or the...

Six senate seats of the house, nancy pelosi would go on to become speaker. 2010 is many year for president trump. 46% obama. lost 6 senate seats and 63 seats in the house. republican capture the house. hold it to this day. so look at the 46 for president clinton and obama, those were first midterm. president trump will step in the clal about 46% approval rating well below president obama and a little above george bush in second midterm. easy for the democrats to get it back? no. but republicans ...

To be in place for the out of power party, they are, for now, taking shape for democrats. take you through some of the keys. you mentioned the generic ballot, usually a very good predictor. right now, thats one of the warning signs. heres another one, the nature of midterm elections. these things historically favor the party not in power. these minuses are the losses, the house seats lost by the white house, by the presidents party in past midterm elections. its basically the rule that the white...

Extenuating circumstances. 98, picked up five seats in second midterm, impeachment was going on. 2002, bushs republicans picked up seats, year after 9/11 with the country still in shock. extraordinary circumstances. otherwise the rule is out of power party tends to pick up seats. democrats would need 24 to get the house next year. something else to keep an eye on, presidents approval rating. when you see big losses, not normal but big, corresponds with a president who is not doing well in the po...