A separate article about Simon’s quotation is available here.
In 1972 philosopher and AI critic Hubert L. Dreyfus published “What Computers Can’t Do: A Critique of Artificial Reason”, and he referred to Minsky’s prediction:
Is there, thus, any reason to be confident that these programs are approaching the “superior heuristics for managing their knowledge structure” which Minsky believed human beings must have; or, as Minsky claims in another of his books, that
within a generation . . . few compartments of intellect will remain outside the machine’s realm the problem of creating “artificial intelligence” will be substantially solved.”
In 2005 science journalist Ellen Ullman referred to Minsky’s prediction, but she also noted that he had subsequently revised his stance: