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Looking Ahead to 2022 with ‘Realistic Optimism’
Stock valuations are driven by future expectations. That mindset proved beneficial to equity investors who were willing to look towards the future with optimistic expectations for a re-opened world and the resultant economic recovery. They have been rewarded with positive returns over the past twelve months, but now that we are in recovery mode, what comes next? Our Three Tactical Rules* shape our view as we look out over the next ninety days. Looking longer term, however, we also consider many qualitative inputs to help inform decision making. No one of these, individually, is enough to prompt a decision. Our views on these variables, combined with our tactical signals, inform portfolio positioning. Here are some of the themes we are watching now.
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AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: Pressure mounts in the near-term, but bulls still has an ace up the sleeveANALYSIS |
3/12/2021 3:43:24 PM GMT
The Reserve Bank of Australia took action to curb the yields rally.
The US Federal Reserve is having a monetary policy meeting this week.
AUD/USD could fall towards 0.7620 but the long-term bullish picture persists.
The AUD/USD pair is has managed to post a modest advance this week, recovering well above the 0.7700 threshold. The greenback strengthened on the back of soaring government bond yields, but in the case of AUD/USD, the stronger dollar was partially offset by Wall Street reaching all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P both hit records on Thursday, after US President Joe Biden signed the $ 1.9 trillion stimulus bill into law, granting more easy money to markets.
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Government bond yields keep ramping up despite centra banks’ measures.
Growth imbalances in favor of the US should provide further support to the dollar.
EUR/USD is technically bearish and heading toward the 1.1700 level.
The week ends as it started, with government bond yields soaring and the greenback following their lead. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield peaked at 1.62% at the beginning of the week, then retreated to as low as 1.47% mid-week. Heading into Friday’s close, the yield resumed its advance and stands at 1.62%.
The EUR/USD pair traded alongside, peaking at 1.1989 on Thursday, following the European Central Bank Monetary policy announcement, now trading around 1.1930.
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Policymakers from the EU and the US pledged to maintain exceptional monetary easing.
Slow economic progress and pandemic fatigue weighing on investors’ mood.
EUR/USD long-term bullish stance remains firmly in place.
The EUR/USD pair ends the week where it started, in the 1.2130 price zone, and while it expanded its weekly range, it held within familiar levels. Investors’ attention centred on US Treasury yields, as long-term ones soared to one-year highs. The dollar initially rallied with yields, but the exceptional correlation was short-lived, fading as the days went by.
Central banks aligned
Speculative interest had little to work with, still waiting for fundamental headlines related to a new stimulus package in the US and progress in the battle against the coronavirus. The financial world seems to have entered a new stage of pandemic fatigue, trapped between concerns related to new strains and delayed vaccines’ deliveries, and hopes for an economic comeback in the second half of the year.
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