Shadow Risk: What Crisis Simulations Reveal about the Dangers of Deferring U.S. Responses to China's Gray Zone Campaign against Taiwan
Download the Brief The Issue This brief explores escalation dynamics in China’s gray zone campaign targeting Taiwan based on the results of 20 crisis simulations. CSIS finds that U.S. policymakers face shadow risk in gray zone confrontations: the desire to avoid short-term escalation triggers an increased appetite for risk in future disputes. In other words, deferring U.S.
Source: csis.org