and you got bank of america s got these problems. so there s good news and there s bad news. but i think, richard, if i had to put it down to anything, american people are basically optimistic and hopeful people. what surprises me, quite frankly is how many of us remain, very, very negative. peter, last to you then, is it all going to be as what pat s saying here, it s going to be about the economy, it s going to be jobs. gitmo, immigration, although those are key issues for the president in 2011, for us as voters and those that are out there, that s not going to be a concern? i think it will mostly be about the economy, richard. and you know, if people are hopeful that their personal situations are getting better, look, they re going to see more money in their paychecks because of the cut in the social security payroll tax. they re going to see no taxes are going up on the federal level, that s for sure. i don t think too many states will be racing taxes either. so folks say, look
automatically go back to the senate. there would not be a second vote where house liberal democrats could vote against the compromise bill. so essentially what they re going to do now is possibly go to house rules committee or have some sort of procedural maneuver on the house floor of which liberal house democrats will have a chance to vote for the estate tax compromise language they like, and then vote against the senate bill on the floor. there s also talk possibly about having new amendments added. a lot of liberal house democrats would like to see an amendment to extend unemployment benefits for 24 months, instead of the 13 months they re at now. there s also talk of upset house democrats with something of the social security payroll tax. that s a possibility. but what we re looking at is this going being delayed. possibly going into the night. although we re now hearing from a lot of democratic sources they want to accomplish this by tonight. but remember, richard. if anything
for the house to do, frankly, anything. a critical part of the compromise called for a reduction in the social security payroll tax from 6.2 percent to 4.2 percent. it may not sound like a lot. some argue it undermines social security but the latest fox opinion poll suggest as majorities of members support at least the idea of the tax cut deal. and 68 percent. versus 26 percent. and now gerri s two cents. if it passed, how does this payroll holiday, tax holiday impact us? it is not nothing. if you are in a two income family earning $100,000 you would save $6,200 this year and next year it would be $4,200 if this is part of the legislation. but a lot of democrats are now saying we do not want to do this so the savings is $2,000 for a two-income family of $100,000.
when 53 senators vote to do that, somehow 36 became the will of the congress. in the end, i don t know what would happen. i m disappointed the president did not join with us. yes, we want a tax level for most of the people. we want an estate tax. we re talking about 3.5 million. we want unemployment compensation. we want to do all these things. let s have the republicans be the ones to propose it. he s bought into this notion in a dispute between two sides, when one side says, we won t do it, we re being obstructive. it s not essentially a social security payroll tax. it does limit the funding of social security via payroll. if that goes through, does that, in fact, make social security vulnerable in a practical sense or a theatrical, opening
be better than everybody paying more tax. what has to happen to get us to economic growth and how much more economic growth will we need in 2011 to change the landscape of how our economic future looks? i mean, i think we have to get gross domestic product above its current rate of growth, which is around 2.5%. economists generally agree if you re at that level the best you re going to do is keep the unemployment rate constant. let me refer you and your viewers to a number of analyses. these are not our analyses but outside analysts of what this framework will do in that regard. the center for american progress, mark xandi among others. i hear microeconomic advisers revised their forecast based on this. i know you guys are good at collecting that data so i encourage you to do so. what you will see is through a 2% payroll tax cut tell prayer because of deficit reasons, because of the ui extension, because of some of the tax