Page 3 - Split Ticket Voting News Today

In 2022, Democrats have the opportunity to learn from 2020 and 2021, and develop bold, effective campaign messaging.

President Donald Trump claimed that the 2020 US presidential election was stolen; millions of Americans apparently believed him. We assess the most prominent statistical claims offered by Trump and his allies as evidence of election fraud, including claims about Dominion voting machines switching votes from Trump to Biden, suspiciously high turnout in Democratic strongholds, and the supposedly inexplicable failure of Biden to win “bellwether counties.” We use a combination of statistical rea...

Column "a" and a little bit of column "b." particularly in the districts that clinton won in 2016, those are the districts where republicans tend to be most endangered because they were already places where there was a lot of split ticket voting. voters voting for hillary clinton for president and then voting for the republican candidate for congress. its the larger chunk of those districts where trump won where handicappers like cook political report think are competitive, where the race is nea...

Than it is nationwide. but its still underwater. so you have a slight majority who disapprove of the presidents job performance. and that means that its going to be a struggle for some of these candidates to outrun that. we saw this with barack obama in 2014. very few senate candidates could get too far above his job approval rating in the state. and that makes him a liability. >> and im looking just at the -- some of the states where these districts are located, in states like arizona, californ...

A while from many of the front line senate candidates. i was up in pennsylvania more than a month ago, and pat toomey, the republican candidate there, was using language very much like this actually, on the stump. and so i think were going to be hearing that a lot more in the coming weeks. reaches a much larger audience than the candidates themselves. and i think were going to hearing a lot of the republican candidates stressing they will be an independent voice. whether it can work though. ron ...

Months was all wrong? >> i dont know that it was all wrong. really hillary clinton has helped up. you can look at, florida, ohio, and pennsylvania in which theyre shows 15 seconds of -- it shows that donald trump is not who the republican party is. it has the effect of helping, like in pennsylvania, patrick toomey in florida, marco rubio, so the conventional wisdom thafb that trump will struggle, but not having the impact on the downballot side. thats good news for republicans ivlgts does this m...

Thats where the al gore race was decide bid a third party vote. his message is dont be ralph nader, dont go for the third party, this is too important. >> >> heres the bigger problem for the republican party right now. even a week ago you could foresee a scenario where hillary clinton wins the white house but most of the senators that are in jeopardized states, those 2010 states that are now up for reelection could survive. even pat toomey theoretically could survive because of split-ticket voti...

>> in most race, the campaigns dont matter very much. although no one has done the experiment of im not going to run any campaign at do that. lets just put names on the ballot and see what happens. >> the campaigns matter less than we like to think they do, but in some cases they make all of the difference in the world. in heidis case theres at least 12% of the people in the state of north dakota that voted for heidi on the same day at the same time and thats persuasion and split-ticket voting. ...

There used to be -- i think the problem i have, the reason im not so optimistic about this is that split-ticket voting has steadily been declining now for more than a generation. were at sort of the lowest level ever in terms of people who vote for a democrat for president or libertitarian. thats not happening. a real sorting out of the parties, culturally, eat logically. you can have these conversations divorced, the republicans from this, the democrats divorced from that. and youll get these f...

Florida, north carolina, these are the states i talk about them in the swing vote. these are the states, these independent swing voters in those swing states will be deciding the election. >> right. >> yeah, i mean -- and i would just respectfully make a point. i think what linda is saying makes a lot of sense in terms of people being turned off by the two major parties. the distinction is you dont really see a difference between the behavior of 75%, at least, in the people who describe themselv...