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About a quarter of Americans report believing that double voting is a relatively common occurrence, casting doubt on the integrity of elections. But, despite a dearth of documented instances of double voting, it’s hard to know how often such fraud really occurs (people might just be good at covering it up!). This talk will describe a simple statistical trick to estimate the rate of double voting one that builds off the classic birthday paradox and show that such behavior is exceedingly rare. It will be further argued that current efforts to prevent double voting can in fact disenfranchise many legitimate voters.

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