Written by John LounsburyStephen G. Cecchetti, Brandeis International Business School, presented the 2019 Annual O. John Olcay Lecture on Ethics and Economics on the topic of “Finance for People: Some Do’s and Don’ts
The Dynamic Relationship Between Global Debt And Output
The global economy has reached record levels of indebtedness, to the concern of researchers and policymakers. On the one hand, debt can be beneficial by smoothing out consumption and accelerating capital accumulation, and thus contributing to economic output. On the other hand, rising debt increases debt service costs and can potentially expose countries to financial risks and lower output. In particular, a large expansion of debt can be associated with a significant economic contraction that can last for years.
Global debt as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) has been on an upward trend for decades (see figure 1). Rising debt levels are occurring across developed and developing countries in both the public and private sectors. Despite the overall global trends, patterns of debt vary by sector and a country’s level of economic development.[1] For example, in the private sector - comprising firms and households - develo