Page 5 - Stephens Roach News Today

Stephen S. Roach thinks the US central bank and Chinese governance share a conceptual weakness leading to major policy blunders.

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

NEW HAVEN  —  The widely acclaimed globalisation of the post-Cold War era is now running in reverse. A protracted slowdown in global trade has been reinforced by persistent pandemic-related supply-chain disruptions, ongoing pressures of the US-China trade war, and efforts to align cross-border economic ties with geostrategic alliances (“friend-shoring”). These developments

NEW HAVEN  —  Since the days of Deng Xiaoping, economic growth has mattered more than anything for China’s leaders. The 10 per cent annualized hyper-growth from 1980 to 2010 was widely seen as the antidote to the relative stasis of the Mao era, when the economy grew by only about 6 per cent. But under President Xi Jinping, the pendulum has swung back, with 6.6 per cent average

Stephen S. Roach says that three factors have shaved nearly 3.5 percentage points from annual output gains since 2012.

NEW HAVEN  —  Poor Jerome Powell. With US inflation close to a 40-year high, the Federal Reserve (Fed) chair knows what he needs to do. He has professed great admiration for Paul Volcker, his 1980s-era predecessor, as a role model. But, to paraphrase US Senator Lloyd Bentsen’s famous 1988 quip about his vice presidential rival, Senator Dan Quayle, I knew Paul Volcker very

NEW HAVEN  —  I should have listened to Alan Greenspan, at least when it comes to currency forecasting. The former chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed) once told me it was a fool’s game, with the odds of getting currency calls right worse than a successful bet on a coin toss. Two years ago, I ignored the maestro’s advice and went out on a limb, predicting that the US dollar

Unwilling to acknowledge the changing nature of the virus, the Chinese government continues to claim that it can outrace the virus through extreme containment measures.

Migrant workers and recent college graduates have been hit hardest by shuttered factories, closed construction sites and an anemic job market.

The predictable downward revision cycle for the global economic outlook has officially begun. That’s the message from the semi-annual World Economic Outlook