call themselves conservative and will likely dominate his way through the rest of the primaries despite what nikki haley does or does not do. but november 5th, 2024, is not a primary race and a candidate cannot rely on the strength of their base alone, and that is where it is helpful to read between the lines of last night s vote. unlike iowa, which is a lock for the gop, new hampshire s electorate is swingy trump lost moderates to haley, two lost college graduates to haley, and three, lost independents to haley, it is a problem, especially when 68% of independents flat out said they will not vote for him. and 42% of primary voters say they don t think someone convicted of a crime would be fit to be president, if that happens to donald trump. a reminder, for all we talk about the general election, what we really mean is the general election in six specific states. arizona, nevada, georgia, michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania. you see them there. so let us untangle what we k