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US Interest Rates: Making the Improbable Today's Reality :: The Market Oracle ::

I see an opportunity today. You would think that the higher interest rate guidance would have created a bump higher in the $TNX (Ten-Year Note Yield). However, wouldn’t that make too much sense? The more trading experience I have gotten over the last two decades, the clearer it is, that logic doesn’t always work - unless you are early enough. If you have been following along, you know that yesterday, I discussed the S&P Banking sector, namely KBE, as we wait for a pullback to ...
Rafael Zorabedian Improbable Today Reality Interest Rates Federal Reserve Ten Year Note Yield Ten Year Note

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What's Up at the Fed? Supply & Demand, 12 Trading Notes, Microsoft Conference

Whats Up at the Fed? Supply & Demand, 12 Trading Notes, Microsoft Conference Should we care about Australias central bank taking overtly aggressive action to reign in the long end of their yield curve? Yes, we should. Mar 01, 2021 | 07:55 AM EST Shot heard round the world? Like the crack of a bat on a sunny summer afternoon. Like the gust of wind that seems to come out of nowhere and blow your garbage cans across the street. Like discovering a small plastic toy when cleaning out the ga...
New York United States New Zealand United Kingdom Federal Republic Of Yugoslavia John Williams

The Suppressed Economy, Impressive Earnings, U.S. Treasury Curve, Pandemic Watch

The Suppressed Economy, Impressive Earnings, U.S. Treasury Curve, Pandemic Watch I want you to think about how quickly the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve is moving. Feb 22, 2021 | 07:38 AM EST After The Winter (excerpt) Where towers the cotton tree An leaps the laughing crystal rill And works the droning bee And we will build a cottage there Beside an open glade And ferns that never fade - Claude McKay (2003) Pressure I think, maybe that it was not just me. Financial markets are r...
United States Claude Mckay Jerome Powell Janet Yellen Michele Bowman Paul Volcker

Shock & Awe Markets, Bank Stocks, Apple's Debt Move, Trading Amazon, ServiceNow

Shock & Awe Markets, Bank Stocks, Apples Debt Move, Trading Amazon, ServiceNow Right off the top, the bubble has burst for the short squeeze names such as GameStop and AMC Entertainment. Feb 03, 2021 | 07:28 AM EST Retired General Tommy Franks never cared for the term "shock and awe", and really did not see his tactics in the way they were described by the mainstream media back in 2003, as U.S. forces invaded Iraq. The U.S. made use of overwhelming air superiority backed by the rapid us...
United States Loretta Mester Janet Yellen James Bullard Robert Kaplan Jeff Bezos

Beware Market Land Mines: Stimulus, Vaccine Failure, Interest Rates

Beware Market Land Mines: Stimulus, Vaccine Failure, Interest Rates  Share   Share Trending When the market cap of equities reaches 183% of GDP and govt bonds yield near 0%, or even less overseas, the notion that one can just buy and hold a balanced portfolio is extremely dangerous. The minefield is not packed with IEDs, it is actually replete with tactical nukes.  One of those land mines would be the failure to keep government open and pass more stimulus. I have no special insight here exc...
Alan Greenspan Paul Volcker Wall Street Dow Jones Industrial Average Price Inflation Fed Chairman

Michael Pento: A traditional buy-and-hold portfolio is now "extremely dangerous" – Investment Watch

When the market cap of equities reaches 183% of GDP and government bonds yield near 0%, or even less overseas, the notion that one can just buy and hold a balanced portfolio is extremely dangerous. The minefield is not packed with IEDs; it is actually replete with tactical nukes. One of those land mines would be the failure to keep the government open and pass more stimulus. I have no special insight here, except D.C. is famous for brinkmanship but always opts to spend more money in the end. An...
Michael Pento Alan Greenspan Paul Volcker From Michael Pento Pento Portfolio Strategies Wall Street

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