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was approved a while ago. it was a phase one deal but a lot of things covered. the farmers are going to have to buy a much larger tracker because it means a lot of business. >> we thought farmers are going to buy a lot of trackers. as you can see on the dow, it is percentage wise and entirely unchanged. you would think wild of this deal and all we have been talking about a year and a half. joining me now is the chief economist, diane swan. i have spent this morning figuring out what phase one means? i have words going through my mi mind. it is a cease-fire or a halt in the trade war, it is not really a deal. it did not get us further than this thing started. >> it takes off the table of full-blown trade war before
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christmas. it was one of the things along with the government shutdown and the fed raising interest rates that caused the consumer to disappear during the holiday season. the good news is we have taken that fear factor out of the equation and retail sales we saw for november largely because we had a late thanksgiving. it was in december of this year andty think we'll see holiday sales, that's the important factor that the u.s. consumers may be strained but could play to the economy. what it does not do and you certainly note that and that's, it does not lift the uncertainty for manufacture and it gdoes no give us much notion of what kind of trade war do we see or if china violates any of this deal, it will happen on. >> i want to know which of the three options i provide here,
make the most sense to explain the lack of activities in markets as a result of this. one is market investors don't believe it is meaningful. and the third one is markets don't care because stocks are being valued on other things and maybe they are accurately valued. we should never in history we see no reaction of this kind of thing. >> i think we saw a big reaction to the idea of it earlier. some of it already is in the marn market reaction. we are getting trade fatigue out there. i think that's a real issue as well. you noted that if you believe the trade deal quote on quote deal was $50 billion as some are talking about on exports of agriculture, that's well beyond anything we have exported.