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quarters of negative gdp growth minus 1%, minus a half a percent. that s not a huge downturn. you know, in the pandemic we dropped 30% annualized on the quarter or something like that. it will be mild. what that means is the unemployment levels will get we get as high as 5%, high 4s. but that s kind of interesting. we used to think 4.5% was full employment. are you saying most americans may not notice it? what they are noticing now is the cost of things went up. that s causing them to change their behavior. spe spending 2021 to 2022 was up 9%. yoo roer to date it s up 5%. that s more consistent low inflation. they are adjusting their behavior based on the cost side and will affected by rates trying to get a mortgage, buy a car. they feel the impacts of what s going on. if they keep their job they won t feel it. that s the great debate.

Gdp growthMinus 1U sUnemployment levels4 5Spe spendingYoo roerWhat s going on