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Just when you thought it was safe to hope interest rates might soon peak, along comes more bad news. It looks likely that the El Nino weather phenomenon has returned, according to both the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Its appearance usually results in, or exacerbates, floods, heatwaves, water scarcity and wildfires, especially in the southern hemisphere. The damage these inflict on crops and infrastructure is inflationary, putting pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy. If climate change makes such events stronger and more frequent, supply shocks will become embedded.

New zealandUnited statesRepublic ofNew delhiEl ninoPacific oceanThomas shumKatrina hamlinThomson reuters trust principlesAtmospheric administrationAtmospheric administration climate prediction centerInternational monetary fundUs national oceanographicUniversity of dartmouthAustralian bureau of meteorologyAustralian bureau of meteorology on