Joining us from seattle, washington. Officerhief strategy for the Health Initiative and a professor of Global Health at the institute for Health Metrics and evaluation. Dr. Ali mokdad. Thank you for being with us. It is a pleasure. Host as you look at the trends tonight, what do they tell you . Dr. Mokdad we peaked on april 10 and they are coming down for the whole country but there are states that are still going up and others are going down. Host how do you do your study . What is the methodology . Dr. Mokdad we decided to model mortality on a daily basis and death rate and we used experience we have seen in wuhan, italy, and spain. We reversed the mortality how many beds we will need in the hospital and how many ventilators. We know in the United States for every death how many patients were admitted. Host at one point there was an expectation we could have 230,000 deaths and that number has come down, correct . Dr. Mokdad true. Our numbers have always been less than 100,000. First