warren 13%. buttigieg way back at 9%. why do we care about california and texas? it s not iowa. it s not new hampshire. because the contest is about delegates. once you go beyond the early contests, it s all about math. my favorite subject in the world. and what do we see here? this is harry s rough delegate map if the statewide results matched our polls exactly right. obviously these are rough estimates. we see a fairly close matchup. biden getting 150 delegates. sanders getting 140. texas is something else entirely where biden leads the pack with 150 to sanders 50, warren 20. buttigieg only gets five. and i think this is so key here at the bottom. biden would earn 315% of the 1,921 total delegates needed for majority. these two states combined, with biden doing as well as he is in texas would go a long way to getting the convention majority. just quickly, it has been
macro indicators like health care costs. if now the economy is a little uncertain and you re still dealing with these incredible costs, it s hard to feel good about the president on the economy. let s talk about women. going back in time in 2016, the president beat a woman with the help of a 9% advantage among white women in 2016. now look at these numbers on the right. that s the current state of play according again to this latest quinnipiac poll. joe biden is beating the president by 18 percentage points among white women, sanders the same and warren 13. anna, what does that mean to you? well, it s tremendously good news for democrats. what i would say also is if you look between 2016 and 2018 and in many cases 2018 turnout was almost presidential, there was a big shift among women. trump won white women. democrats broke even with white women, maybe down 2, up 2 depending on the poll so there was a pretty significant shift