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What happened to April payrolls? No one is quite sure.  One possibility is that the BLS seasonal adjustment was far off the mark.The unadjusted Nonfarm Payrolls number was 1.089 million. A seasonal adjustment designed to smooth out recurring monthly swings reduced it to the issued figure of 266,000. These revisions are based on the historical record.  Do assumptions founded in normal seasonal hiring patterns have any predictive value for a time frame as unusual as the past 15 months? In a nor...

Stephen Guilfoyle in his Market Recon column decries deceptive jobs data, talks up AMC Entertainment (AMC) matinee trading, identifies Ford (F) and Nvidia (NVDA) as breakout candidates, notes that an infrastructure bill may be closer, and tells the Federal Reserve to wake up....AMC

Thursdays Close Shave, Troubling New Highs and Lows, Peloton Kicks Into Gear The market came within whiskers of a technical breakdown on Thursday, yet few people seem to know or care. May 07, 2021 | 07:28 AM EDT The timing of that late surge of demand across financial markets on Thursday was absolutely extraordinary. In this very column, 24 hours ago, I touched on the fact that the Nasdaq Composite had been put in the position of defending its own 50 day SMA (simple moving average) for ...

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Get Your Game On, Powell Stumbles, Greatness Awaits, Sizing Up Friday Lets see what, if any, impact the February labor market data have on the markets. Mar 05, 2021 | 07:31 AM EST Glory I got to my desk here on Friday morning at 03:30. Not early. Not late. Usual time. For the first half hour or so, I try not to even look at social media or anything like that. For 30 minutes I just absorb as much data, read as much opinion, think about what I am trying to do, and drain my first cup of co...

Super Bowl Lesson, Earnings, DC Reality, Bonds, Labor Demand, Southwest Air Bond markets are pricing in medium-term economic growth amid monetary and fiscal conditions that they believe to be conducive to igniting inflation. The Super Bowl is always a tough obstacle to circumnavigate for traders and investors. Screws up the whole Sunday night cram session ritual. On the one hand, this is pro (American) footballs championship, so there is at least some interest that creeps into ones subc...

1/29/2021 4:18:41 PM GMT USD/JPY breaks out of seven-month descending channel. Trading at 2021 high, returns to the level of early November. USD/JPY moves through the 21-day and 100-day moving averages. Fibonacci 50% line next important resistance above market. FXStreet Forecast poll predicts a resumption of the downtrend The USD/JPY moved sharply higher this week breaking the upper border of the descending channel that has contained trading for seven months. Aided by better than expected US Du...

1/9/2021 2:47:46 AM GMT USD/JPY recovers ground but the trend remains lower. Weak US December payrolls had minimal effect as already priced. BOJ “closely watching currency markets” provides Thursday boost. FXStreet Forecast Poll sees little movement despite bearish outlook. A week of political turmoil in the United States that culminated in a riot in the halls of Congress by supporters of President Trump, had almost no impact on the currency markets as an old-fashioned warning from the Bank...

Stephen Guilfoyle in his "Market Recon" column notes a change in the world's richest man, comments on his breach of self-discipline, counts downs the day of the Trump presidency, highlights how small-caps are sizzling, and previews the coming Consumer Electronics Show....MSFT