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You can join our conversation. Right after the. Live from n.p.r. News in Washington I'm Jack Speer u.s. Ambassador to the u.n. Nikki Haley is leaving the trumpet ministration at the end of this year she surprised many worth or decision today but as N.P.R.'s Michele Kelemen explains President Trump is holding out the possibility she may return as she sat next to the president in the Oval Office Nikki Haley was playing down her political ambitions no I'm not running for turning 20 and I can tell you she will be doing is campaigning for this one so I look forward to supporting the president in the next election so thank you she was a few says and so was Trump who calls Haley a quote very special person adding that she told him 6 months ago she wants to take some time off he says he will name a successor in the next few weeks before being tapped by Trump to serve at the u.n. Haley was governor of South Carolina Michele Kelemen n.p.r. News the State Department President Trump says the White House is in direct communication with Florida's governor as Hurricane Michael makes its way toward the Gulf Coast as N.P.R.'s ones are Johnston reports the Category 3 storm is on track to make landfall tomorrow as a major hurricane charm says the Federal Emergency Management Agency is prepared to step in and assist the local authorities once the storm hits we're already. Spoke with Governor Scott spoke to everybody that you have to speak to and I think that hopefully we'll get lucky but maybe that won't happen but we're prepared homes and businesses are boarding up along Florida's Big Bend and Panhandle Forecasters say Michael is expected to produce dangerous storm surge damaging winds and heavy rain hurricane warnings have been issued along the state's Gulf Coast Governor Rick Scott has declared states of emergency for more than half of the counties in Florida Winsor Johnston n.p.r. News u.n. Human rights expert admits the case of a missing Saudi journalist has created difficulty for the Turkish government who runs David Kay says that's because Jamal quit. Shogi was last seen entering the Saudi Consulate in Turkey putting the country in the position of having to maintain diplomatic relations and conduct a high profile investigation it was State Department spokeswoman Heather now with him on those calling on Riyadh to provide answers the United States is certainly concerned about his whereabouts a senior officials at the State Department have spoken with Saudi officials through diplomatic channels about the matter we call on the governments of Saudi Arabia to conduct a thorough Trans Ams transparent investigation some Turkish sources have said they believe could be a critic of Saudi policy was killed while inside the mission Saudi Arabia's called those allegations baseless The only appointed Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh seem to waste little time jumping into his new job today Kavanagh asking questions in the 1st arguments of the day occasionally along with increased prison sentences for repeat offenders he post some questions after most of the other justices that way Dan makes close on Wall Street the Dow was down 56 points today the Nasdaq rose 2 points the s. And p. 500 closed down 4 points this is n.p.r. . Pakistan's currency the rupee plunged about 7 percent today after the country's government announced it intends to seek emergency bailout loans from the International Monetary Fund a Pakistani delegation is expected to meet with i.m.f. Officials in Indonesia later this week Pakistan is already seeking loans from China which is invested heavily in that country's transport and energy sectors the rock n Roll Hall of Fame is announcing its nominees for the class of 2019 for member station w k s you cover your body as more. Def Leppard has been eligible for the Rock Hall for over a decade but is making its 1st appearance on this year's ballot acts are released their 1st record at least 25 years ago are eligible and several other groups are bowing for the 1st time as well Divo singer songwriter John Prine Roxy Music Stevie Nicks and Todd Rundgren returning to the ballot or acts ranging from Janet Jackson to m c 5 to the zombies who have been eligible since 1989 in addition to more than 1000 music industry professionals fans can also vote for their favorite acts online through December 9th the 21000 Rock Hall induction ceremony will be held in New York City in March for n.p.r. News I'm in Cleveland and a benefit for Starbucks 180000 employees subsidized backup care for children and adults company announcing employees a Jew s. Locations will get up to 10 backup care days each year to use when their regular care is unavailable Starbucks is partnering with a company called Care dot com which connects people to caregivers the company will also offer employees free senior care planning through Care dot com I'm Jack Speer n.p.r. News in Washington support for n.p.r. Comes from n.p.r. Stations other contributors include Terra data working to transform how businesses work through the power of data using pervasive data and Teligent Tera data leverage is all relevant data to deliver answers to complex business issues Tara Data dot com. This is where we live I'm listing all potential 1000 families in Connecticut experience homelessness each year children in those families could be a child and your son or daughter's class should educators talk with students about homelessness Coming up we'll hear from the Connecticut Coalition to End Homelessness the nonprofit has created lesson plans for teachers to help them talk about it with students the coalition's Matalan Ravitch will join us later this hour 1st a proposal to merge c.b.s. And now or for c.b.s. To acquire at night a $69000000000.00 deal faces its 1st hurdle after a public hearing the state insurance department now has 30 days to decide whether to approve the deal and the federal government must also give its approval but is this a good deal for consumers do you think the merger will hinder competition and limit your savings or will a c.b.s. In a partnership lead to innovative less expensive strategies to deliver health care we want to hear from you join the conversation 275-7266 you can e-mail us where we live at w npr dot org As always find us on Facebook and Twitter where we live on a Welcome back to the show Harriet Jones she's business reporter for Connecticut Public Radio Harriet thanks for coming in you're welcome at now has deep roots in the state of Connecticut I read. Governor Malloy quote is they've been here since 1853 got it right when they were founded in Hartford an 853 you know pretty much synonymous with the insurance industry here you know really very iconic corporate citizen of Hartford but you know of late has been somewhat in doubt we saw them try to do another huge merger a couple of years ago with Humana. As part of this kind of wave of consolidation in the health care industry that got blocked by the Department of Justice by federal antitrust regulators and after that there was some uncertainty as part of the Humana merger. You know kind of hinted they might move their headquarters out of Hartford after the failed c.e.o. Mark personally announced plans that he was going to move the headquarters to New York City they were going to build themselves a fancy new office block just you know right next to Chelsea Market in lower Manhattan you know next to Google and You Tube and all the rest of it but those plans again changed the c.b.s. Deal came on the scene remind us that Mark brutal Ynys love for Hartford has waned over the last year so explain again why he wanted to move the headquarters to New York City so he said you know what he said is he wants to kind of re-imagine the company you know as a legacy insurance company but more to do with health care more broadly and to do with the data analytics of health care too so he wanted to think of it more you know to have the technology component of the company be more prominent and so he felt that Manhattan was you know a better place to do that and I think you'll see with personally more fundamental and then Hartford and so with the news that c.v.s. Was interested in acquiring. Those concerns from heart for officials like the mayor and others the governor that they would move the headquarters that went away because c.v.s. Said that they didn't have any intention of wanting to see the headquarters out of state but in terms of this potential deal coming up we're going to hear about some of the concerns from consumer advocates and others but what exactly needs to happen step by step in terms of approval for the c.v.s. An. Acquisition So any big public company merger you know requires trust regulators to sign off on it but if you're in a very heavily regulated industry like the insurance industry like health care there's not many more steps because not only does the d.o.j. Itself the federal level have to sign off every state where you sell plans or you have operations also has to have its own hearing and the insurance department in that state might want to impose its. And conditions none of the states actually have you know they can't stop the deal but they can recommend to the d.o.j. That you know in fact California has in this case you know. Raised its very loud voice to the Department of Justice and said that it doesn't believe that this merger should go ahead whereas we've seen states like Connecticut kind of haven't ruled yet but it also has imposed conditions on the company now has an agreement with c.v.s. That it will keep as headquarters in Hartford for 10 years it will keep its workforce approximately the level it is now which is about $5300.00 it will it's going to keep the workforce level for 4 years so regulators have those kinds of powers to impose conditions so that almost sweeten the deal for the state of Connecticut to try if you guys want to get this this merger of this deal in place what's in it for us but there have been opinions out there that wide just 10 years why not commit to Connecticut in the long term right yeah of course I think you're right there was an editorial in Hartford Current saying you know why can't we just keep your forever you never going to get that kind of commitment from a company because they have no idea you know what business conditions are going to be in the future what the shape of the company is going to be in the future. So you know that it's not realistic to expect to get in this type of negotiation instead with me is Harriet Jones business reporter for Connecticut Public Radio as we talk about this pending deal with c.b.s. Looking to acquire at now which is one of the 3rd I think it's the 3rd largest insurer in the nation coming to Britain learn more about c.v.s. As a pharmacy benefit manager and some of the concerns with this idea of a p.b.m. As they're known acquiring insurance company but in terms of when we look at the status quo and keeping at night here in the state this deal isn't likely to get approval from the federal government I believe there was a previous a deal between Cigna and expressed grips which is a similar kind of relationship that got approval yes to these deals are they're fairly new so this is a deal essentially between a health insurer and what's called a p.b.m. a Pharmacy benefits manager which is the the bit of c.v.s. That's kind of interest interesting in this deal what one of those exists already that's Optima and United Health Care another one just did get its federal approval it's not this is Cigna and Express Scripts Cigna of course of Bloomfield based in sure it has this d.o.j. Approval it doesn't have all the state sign offs yet so it's not quite over the finish line but it's very very close it's going to get there so the tea leaves are kind of good for this deal it's slightly less straightforward than Cigna Express Scripts because they do have some overlap in their Medicare d. Medicare part d. Provision and c.v.s. Too so I think we will see the d.o.j. Requiring some defense to churches will have to sell off parts of the company but I think at this stage you know industry watchers would be surprised if that you know to block this another development too for for at Nancy vs to see their this deal go through at no agreed to sell off their Medicare part d. So this covers a prescription plan that covers 2000000 people because c.v.s. Also has a huge. Share that Medicare program and so again this would maybe alleviate some concerns from federal regulators about antitrust that's what they're trying to do there to you know because I think that people with thought that they would have had much too large of a slice of the market they would have dominated the market for too much are they not being asked to sell off or you know they don't volunteer to sell off that part of their business so that yeah it's kind of a it's a signal to regulators that yes we're willing to work with you you know we're going to address your own to competitive concerns can we talk about the larger trends that we're seeing here because you mentioned. Other companies were trying to merge with insurance companies previously that was. Rejected by the federal government but in terms of when we think about our health care system and the rising cost of prescription drugs we just recently talked about how hospitals are working to acquire more physician practices this move to consolidate and have partnerships is it really a good deal for patients like you and I if we need health care down the road I think you know that I mean that's the huge question right that's that's what I know I think we heard 2 economists give evidence before the Connecticut insurance departments just know last few days who said they really don't know they couldn't tell us you know it's going to have this effect or it's going to have that effect it's going to raise prices or it's going lower prices they don't know and I think this is the problem with a lot of what's going on in health care right now you know we saw the Affordable Care Act you know try to time kind of grapple with this monster although many people you know there's been criticism of the Affordable Care Act that it didn't really address the cost curve it didn't look to bring down costs none of the Republican plans that have been brought up you know once the Republicans took control of the White House and Congress none of their plans have really addressed cost either so in some senses I think what's happening here is that we're seeing the marketplace itself trying to grapple with this question of how do we order. Health care in this country and how do we address thought you know the rising cost curve Earlier we talked about this commitment from c.b.s. And and now that the deal goes through they're going to stick with Connecticut for another 10 years that's also probably good for the narrative that policymakers are costly combating which is this idea that you have big companies wanting to leave the state and I'm curious as a business reporter do we have companies of this stature interested in coming to Connecticut it's a complicated picture you know I think we said we tend to see the headlines you know g.e. Leaves no wants to leave and we think you know there's a mass flight of Connecticut it's I mean the pictures a lot more complicated than you know the big names tend to capture the headlines but if you think about other big companies Stanley is committed to being here U.T.C.'s committed to being here we've seen you know I think the state would point to things like Infosys coming into Hartford 7 Stars club which is now called something else is called Idea nomics the big Chinese company that's coming to West Hartford but you know even below that kind of big corporate level there's a whole ecosystem of companies that we really have to think about we have to think about how are we. Nurturing store shops how we persuade people start businesses here and what are we doing for our growth companies those kind of in the middle who maybe you know they maybe have a 100 employees or so they're not a huge company but they're starting to grow they're selling to you know get their operations the stablished here. The business cycle in the business ecosystem is very complicated and I think if you just judge by the headlines you're not getting full picture this is where we live I'm listening up of financial Harriet Jones is here business reporter for Connecticut Public Radio and we want to hear from you 2 are you insured by do you shop at c.v.s. What advantages or disadvantages do you see in this proposed merger between both companies and why are pharmacists doctors and others speaking out against such a plan the N.P.R.'s Harriet Jones going to stay with us as we explore those questions and coming up we're going to hear from Connecticut's health care advocate too you can join the conversation 860-275-7266 extension 1 that's on Facebook and Twitter where with their. 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Hi there I'm Rachel Martin one of the host of N.P.R.'s Morning Edition I feel like a show has worked when we come off the air and I'm getting feedback on social media I'm getting feedback from people who say it feels like you are in my kitchen that you are a trusted friend that you are an ally in my effort to decipher what's true and what's not true listen to Morning Edition every day. Join us from $5.00 to $9.00 comes from. Connecticut. Where we've previously recorded. This is where we live I'm losing all potential the American system of delivering health care has long been seen as broken efforts to dismantle the federal formal Care Act have been helped as insurers leave state health exchanges now these insurance companies are looking for growth and one way is through mergers and acquisitions but is that the best kind of deal for consumers those questions have been raised in Connecticut as pharmacy giant c.v.s. Attempts to acquire hard for bass at now the 3rd biggest insurer in the nation for more on this proposal in studio with me is Harriet Jones business reporter for Connecticut Public Radio and joining us now is Ted do a little health care advocate for the state of Connecticut Ted welcome back thanks so much for having me listen I understand there was a public hearing a recently looking at this a this c.v.s. Wanting to acquire. Explained of the concern before we get to what we heard at that hearing when we think about types of mergers there is the horizontal mergers and then what we're hearing now as a vertical integration which is what would explain this particular deal between c.v.s. And Aetna he describe the difference in between both so you're absolutely right the merger of 2 insurance companies is one thing this is essentially as you described a pharmacy benefit. Middleman. Buying an insurance company so it's 2 different types of businesses that makes it somewhat easier to. Acquire perhaps some of the regulatory approvals needed but the impact on consumers is still very important you mentioned I mentioned pharmacy benefit managers when we think about that is the middleman explain how c.v.s. How they do business and what are some of the concerns with help p.b.s. Operate in terms of where savings technically go does not Nestle back to the consumer per se so my office represents consumers and we represent folks who are having difficulties with their health insurance company we have a staff of nurses and attorneys and paralegals are going to represent. People for free when they're trying to get a claim paid something like that so I come at it from the perspective of a consumer and what we have here is a situation where the. The the merger that is common contemplated will have direct impacts on the amount of people the amount that people have to pay when they are standing at the checkout counter at the pharmacy so it sounds like a boring business story but it gets a lot less boring when you're at c.v.s. And somebody tells you the drug for your daughter is going to cost 500 dollars that month. When we think about this acquisition between c.v.s. And. When we look at previous deals that the federal government has approved we mentioned Express Scripts and what was the other Cigna Cigna So have we seen the concerns that you and others have raised about this potential deal is that come into play if the with the Cigna Express Scripts proposal what are we seeing from that point so. There are deals on the table that I haven't concluded but the one that has been in place for a long time of course is the United Health Group Optum is the name of their pharmacy middleman. I would say that folks who are customers of United Health Group absent. When they're talking their neighbors over the fence and urine and the person bursts United Health Care person you're not paying less for drugs so I would say that the the savings really need to be carefully documented through this hearing process and the. State regulators in this case insurance apartment should actually create some accountability and some they should try to understand what the savings are going to be and they should hold the companies to account in later years I would like to see for instance a 3 year a 5 year a 10 year check him to see if the Suppose it savings have occurred and if not there should be some type of accountability and some true up back to the consumers who are going to bear what I fear might be the higher costs of this merger All right we mentioned the state insurance apartment has 30 days to consider whether to approve this deal we heard Ted do a little suggest a ways that the state could hold c.b.s. And at an accountable is that something that the insurance company can then put in place say would we get if we're going to approve this let's see where the cost savings actually go we want you to define. Clearly for people to that they can be more transparent is that possible so certainly you know the. Newly merged company if this goes through is going to have a very long and intimate relationship with the Connecticut insurance department because they will be the regulator so you know they're going to have ongoing negotiations ongoing meetings going approvals that have to happen so yes the can I get insurance or part does have some leverage here. If it chooses to use that to say you know we'll put these conditions in place down the line as Ted was describing you know we can audit you for you know how this is actually working for consumers and if you don't meet these targets you know. It's will be interesting to see what teeth they can put in place but yes certainly they do have some options and I think a lot of the consumer advocates like Ted have said this is what the insurance department should be doing it can't block this merger in and of itself it doesn't you can't you know. Stop it going ahead but it can certainly impose more conditions Well we reached out to c.b.s. And if they wanted to come on the show and they each provided a statement the president Karen Lynch shared in this is something that they also share that the public hearing before the legislature or the committee we have an incredibly fragmented silent system she says it's too expensive the much too complicated to navigate through today's health care systems largely designed to fix people when they're broken and not keep them healthy and active throughout their lives so I want to go back to you Ted do a little get in office of the health care advocate when we look at a potential deal like this what are some of the benefits if you were to get that transparency if you were able to see cost savings for consumers if they can go to their local c.v.s. And get preventative care and it's more accessible to them Can you walk us through what some of the benefits of this proposal could be so. Absolutely and going back to Heriot's point about the conditions I would like to see I just I just some want to say all United Health Group I want to give a shout out to them in terms of their recent pledge to start sending the rebates to the consumers for part of their of their business I think the United Health Group should extend that. To all of their business and I think there's an opportunity for Connecticut or other states are considering this deal to ask Nessie be asked to make that kind of pledge are you going to make sure that the rebates that are big that come from the pharmaceutical manufacturers go to the actual person who's buying the drug as opposed to the health insurance company another thing we can do in terms of trying to create good corporate citizenship is not is not on the exchange United Healthcare is not on the exchange signals not on the exchange Harvard programs not on exchange there is more that good corporate citizenship than just sponsoring little league ball teams these folks should be on board with the exchange. Health care is different between many people have one Nobel Prize in Economics explaining why health care is different we can't make rational choices when it's our own health through the alphabet a loved one and place our community for better or for worse as gone down the road of the Affordable Care Act And these companies are not participating I don't really think that is doesn't reflect well on those companies Herrick in your mind as why these companies pulled out of the state health care exchange to begin with is that because they were losing money basically yes they said it was far too expensive for them to be in the kinds of lives that they were covering they were finding that the people they got through the exchange were older a sick or you know had more issues so it just wasn't enough it wasn't a profitable business for them you can join our conversation as we talk about this potential deal between pharmacy giant c.v.s. Many of us shop there as well as at now you might get insurance through them hard for based I'm sure one of the 3rd largest in the nation Harriet Jones is here with us business reporter for Connecticut Public Radio and to do a little health care advocate for the state of Connecticut the number to call 860-275-7266 is this a potential deal something that you're looking forward to what are some of the the weaknesses in the health care that you're receiving is it hard to get an appointment at your primary care physician would it be easier for you to go to the local Minute Clinic in your neighborhood again the number 860-275-7266 I want to go back to you Ted we were talking about these vertically integrated systems and I'd ask about you know what are some potential benefits if the deal is done correctly Kaiser Permanente I guess is an example of vertical integration could you describe that system out in California yeah so Kaiser Permanente is a system that originated as a physicians group many years ago maybe 80 years ago or so and what they did was they gradually just took on the patients without the interference of. Of an insurance company so Kaiser Permanente is a model where there is no difference between the insurance company and the provider In other words if you are Kaiser Permanente. Insured you go to a Kaiser Permanente doctor and they have thousands and thousands of doctors and hospitals and so forth. That can create a great efficiencies in Kaiser Permanente just one example there are several organically grown. Pretty old systems guys in here in Pennsylvania Inner Mountain Health in the in the Rocky Mountain area that have this kind of integration so there's no separate insurance company that can be very efficient here we're talking about something that hasn't grown up organically it's a merger it's an act and it's an x. Was an acquisition and as I mentioned before with the United Health Group opt to model that we're looking at here I don't see that there has been a great amount of efficiency or savings I could be convinced otherwise but I haven't seen the evidence of it so that's what gives me the concern about these proposed mergers tieup with with that we're talking about now and then also the signal expressed scripts merger we mentioned the public hearing earlier I think one of the people that spoke was Nate tinker from the Connecticut Pharmacy Association was actually independent pharmacies out knowing how how will this kind of deal hurt them Harry Yeah they were very concerned that it may do because of course c.v.s. Is a behemoth in the farm pharmacy industry and you know they're concerned that if c.v.s. Now controls this big network they're going to say well you know you independent pharmacy you have to take our deal or you can't be part of our network you know it's it take it or leave it and he's concerned that independent pharmacies will be driven out of business by this in terms of under-served communities do little get off of health care advocate these c.v.s. Minute clinics are they something that could be seen and more of these under-served communities. Look I think any time we have more clinics especially in under-served areas it can be a good thing I think I think you have to look at how it's done is going to now require all its folks to go to the c.b.s. Minute Clinic and reduce their choice. And perhaps take away business from other competitors and take away choice from the consumers those are some of the issues that we need to really scrutinize when we think about the factors in play that are causing these and assurance companies and pharmacy benefit managers to think about partnering How much does Amazon have to do with their concern about being disrupted Harriot because Amazon Berkshire Hathaway they're all doing the go to think about what are more cost effective ways to deliver health care to their employees Yes certainly the you know the the prospect of Amazon getting into the pharmacy business or into the health care business in a big way yeah it's certainly a kind of a spectator for these companies they have to think about what kind of competition that would provide to them but also you know certain extent provides a model to a company that you know has grown from one specialty into many many specialties so yeah that's that's in the back of their minds for sure and to do a little before we run out of time we know that Affordable Care Act and efforts to dismantle it are are still in play in Washington I believe in the courts but when we look at a deal like this is it a signal to the federal government about new ways to deliver health care and the push toward single payer down the road. Well it certainly it certainly is a new way to do business and when you're talking about single payer Actually you have to think whether you're for or against single payer you might want to ask who's going to be the single payer and no would probably be fine with single payer if you know where the single payer right and so as they try to expand their empires that's exactly what they're there trying trying to do whether or not you want a profit driven company to be at the center of. An expansion like that or you want a non profit driven organization like the Medicare and the Medicaid agencies down in d.c. Or the health care exchange up in Connecticut to be at the center those are some of the key issues to really look at who are going to be the decision makers and who are going to have the best interest of the consumers at heart better is it going to be profit driven entities or is it going to be quasi public let's call it had to teach likely access health Connecticut Obamacare exchanges exchange up in Connecticut I have to leave it there I want to thank Ted little health care advocate for the state of Connecticut for joining us thank you Ted And welcome back I'm also Harriet Jones was here to support for Connecticut Public Radio always a pleasure Harriet thanks me this is where we live I'm loosing up with Anshul Coming up we're going to look at a innovative way to talk about homelessness in the classroom but 1st where we live focuses on many topics and issues each day from health care to the upcoming elections to exploring and the citizen programs found in our communities we don't just talk to policymakers and experts we talk to real people throughout our state who have stories to tell if you appreciate these conversations support us in Connecticut Public Radio with a pledge here 2 of my colleagues with the number to call. 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I hope you can join us tomorrow afternoon at 4 you're listening to our present Taishan of today's where we live. This is where we live I'm loosing up a fan chill coming up Thursday humans have a long history as hunters of the land and water and the next where we live will consider the factors that have motivated men and women to hunt over the centuries and examine the environmental effects of hunting today do you hunt we want to hear from you that conversation on Thursday now $1000.00 families in Connecticut experience homelessness each year and that includes more than 2000 children should educators talk with students in the classroom about homelessness the Connecticut coalition and homelessness has created lesson plans for teachers to help them talk with students about it for more about this initiative Joining me now in studio is Madeline Ravitch development advisor and director of the be home full project at the Connecticut Coalition to End Homelessness well and welcome to the show thank you for having us when we talk about homelessness we might think of an adult face but this does impact children how big of a problem is it in this day was he said there are a 1000 families including over 2000 children who become homeless in our state each year and when we see that those are specifically the numbers of families that enter the shelter system and so a few years ago we started this campaign called to be hopeful project to to address this issue because what we had found that it was that in most cases it was possible to prevent families from becoming homeless in the 1st place if we just insert intercepted them at the front door of shelter and found ways to keep them housed in the 1st place so it's a big problem but it's a solvable problem and that's what we want people to know that it that it's possible to end homelessness with when we really focus on the specific strategy when we think about housing insecurity and the impact on children one of the lasting effects well so it's an interesting fact that the number one predictor of whether somebody will be homeless as an adult is if they experience homelessness as a child so it's really the trauma runs deep and it has lifelong impacts and so that's why we really are trying to cut cut off this vicious cycle before it starts but there are all sorts of there are health impacts both mental and physical there are lots of death. And effects that that that Holmes has on children throughout life you mentioned the be home full project and we're really interested in this curriculum that's been developed tell us about the idea and how you talk about this issue whether it's k. Through 2nd grade up until high school right so as I said one of the one of the interesting things we've learned is that people's minds when they're thinking about addressing homelessness goes towards. A lot of the stereotypes they have about homelessness they imagine a person on the street they may not think that there are children in their communities who are experiencing homelessness right now and so that's why we started this campaign to to really address that issue and we realize that while for adults many of these ideas are baked into us for children we actually have an opportunity to shape minds and get kids to think differently and to not think about children experiencing homelessness as the as those other people but to realize that these are our peers and that we're all in this together so we with this in mind we develop lesson plans backing up a little bit we a few years ago joined forces with the iconic Paddington Bear who's a storybook character who was homeless at the beginning of his story and so we said this is a great character let's make him our spokes fair and let's figure out ways to use his story to engage kids in age appropriate ways and so originally we had these these storytime guides that libraries throughout the state used and that was a really wonderful thing to watch libraries all around the state doing these Paddington story times and then we start to see we start to learn through that process that kids of different ages absorb this information differently and we start to learn how we can speak differently to children at different ages so we develop lesson plans that can view starting as young as pre-K. At the pre-K. Level there are 4 different versions that pre-K. Level they focus on the importance of having a home and what having a home means to me at the. Elementary school level we focus on using Paddington experience to think about how homelessness how it would feel to be in his shoes in middle school and high school we use a fabulous video of actually one of my colleagues and her sister talking about their own experience growing up with homelessness and how it's affected their the trajectory of our lives their lives and. It all rolls up to kids doing marmalade chart drives in honor of Paddington favorite food which are coin drives and so right now actually now until Thanksgiving we are not only get trying to encourage schools to use these lesson plans but also to hold marmalade drives with money they're raising being used for to help families stay housed in the 1st place and I should also mention there's another lesson plan that goes hand in hand with the high school plan that. Is focused on almost an unaccompanied youth and that's a really powerful lesson one that we're hoping that students and schools will use during hunger and homelessness Awareness Week which is November 10th through 18th those lesson plans are really amazing because they educate students about their own rights under McKinney Vento which is the federal law for unstable e housed youth and gives kids the ability to learn how they can help themselves how to help how to help others and really you know our message is we're all in the stake either and we're giving kids the tools to to make that to act on that model and ravage his development adviser and director of the be home full project of the Connecticut coalition and homelessness as we learn about this initiative this curriculum available to educators across the state to talk with students about homelessness you mention in the high school level there is this specific lesson plan mentioning unaccompanied minors that tell us what went into that because so often in the news we're hearing about what migrant families are enduring but the chances are you know when we hear about certain states taking in on a company minors we know that's a. Reality here in Connecticut I mean how do they how do you talk about this current event issue in the classroom with the students Oh that's a really interesting question these lesson plans are really designed to focus on Homelessness and we haven't really stretched into the larger territories we have you know that we have in certain ways in so far as we've had a fund that we worked with United Way and many org and many foundations across the state on to address Puerto Rico and that that crisis because all these things are intertwined but for for you know students in the high school level what people don't realize is that homelessness exists at the you know and that it's a problem that we've worked over the last through 3 years to unearth through the homeless youth count which takes place in January it's an all volunteer effort where volunteers across the state work together to to do a count of homeless youth and that's something that kids can be involved in but you know I think that again we've figured out that and working with schools actually was one of the schools and merit in that we worked with to to start the youth the high school youth lesson plans that when kids are equipped to help their peers we can figure out who's experiencing homelessness right now and connect them with resources to help. And we should mention to our listeners if they are experiencing issues of finding housing or homelessness you can always call at 211 and we've been talking about the student perspective and so I wanted to bring into the conversation Grace Furia was a 9th grade student at Hall High School in West Hartford Grace Welcome to the show I think for having me on Madeline if you could tell us how Grace got involved in the project and then Grace tell us about your perspective as a student talking about homelessness in the classroom Well I'm so thrilled that Grace is here in the studio with us today said Grace is one of our Paddington ambassadors which is what we call kids who step up and learn about homelessness and take the lead on educating their peers and holding drives to help there to help their peers and Grace has been working with us for a few years like the for her when she was in 6th grade working on a homelessness project and she's stuck with it and you know really has influenced others and we're so excited to have her here talking about the project so Grace in 6th grade you were working on a home most as Project tell us about that and then how you've been able to keep participating with the coalition Yeah so my mom works in the homeless housing world and we both thought would be a very interesting project to do and actually she reached out to Madeline and asked for an interview and so she interviewed me and I interviewed her and I learned about homeless does and I got really interested and it and wanted to help out more and we were talking earlier about the stereotypes of homelessness so as a student in the public school system what are are some stereotypes or ideas that your your fellow students have about homelessness and how something like this helping to combat that definitely So I really love these lessons plans because it shows that students show students that whole most of us isn't just oh it dolts impacts children too and we can be part of the solution. And Madeline if a teacher is talking about homelessness in the classroom and one of the students in the classroom is someone that's experience homelessness How do they navigate that right so when it's possible have a social worker in the room for a conversation and I think that's a really great thing but we really tried to design these lesson plans in a way that is sensitive to the dynamics that could play out in the in the classroom ultimately what people should know is that every school has a McCain event a liaison which is the person charged with making sure that all of the rights of children experiencing homelessness are are taken care of and so the teacher should connect the student with the because event it mentally as one if they aren't already to make sure that they're getting whatever help they can get when we think about the lesson plans that you've created and talking about this in a respectful way and how do these lesson plans encourage empathy so empathy is a big theme right now and so you know we've always thought empathy is important and I think that we live in a state of haves and have nots and it's very easy for people to think of homelessness as an issue that doesn't affect them when in fact what we find from our data is that homeless families come from many if not all the towns in the state so. Again we're talking about a homelessness and ways to encourage a conversation about the issue that impacts many of our community members that matter where we live but also ways to help and I think that's part of your approach to with the Be humble project Mallon right and I think building empathy as you said is so important that when we can help kids think about how homelessness affects their peers and learn that they can work together and that there is a solution that by the way only cost a $1000.00 per family to prevent prevent families from being housed people not only have are able to sort of channel that compassion they're able to understand that there's actually a solution that work. We've been talking about homelessness and it's already October and often this issue there's a lot of attention around the holidays but this is a year round problem for some in our community when not only is it your round one of the things that's interesting as you said people think about homelessness during the holidays but in fact Family Homelessness peaks during the summer time and the reason for that is that when children let out of school there that adds an extra burden for families that are already working so hard so so you know we do see spikes in homelessness during the during the during the summer time but we also know that this is when people think about homelessness which is why we we actually are in the midst of are you hopeful for the holidays campaign we just kicked off this week this is an annual campaign we do with Connecticut realtors and citizen Frank and United Way where for every $25.00 donated to our emergency fund the Paddington Bear book blanky or board book is given to a child in shelters so we've done this for the last 2 years it's a way for people to be able to give something tangible which is what we know adults like to do during the holidays for children adults can can hold these drives to give gifts to children shelters but the best part is that every year this raises over $50000.00 for us that we're able to use to keep families housed and that's 50 families so you know that's that's a pretty big deal listeners can learn more about this project at be home full dot org And before we go Madeleine I you know we hear so often about how Connecticut has really made strides in ending homelessness in the I think the goal is to by 2020 and I'm curious if you could talk about some of the how the numbers have decreased it's actually been remarkable Connecticut's a real leader in the country and other parts of the country look to us to learn what we're doing especially around the well around chronic homelessness which is an issue that we bought we been working on for quite a while and around family and youth homelessness but we've seen. 25 percent decline in homelessness since 2007 which is really dramatic and so we're you know we're seeing that when we use data and when we develop by name lists of who's experiencing homelessness and help people help build the system around to 11 we really can make a difference and that's why this campaign is so important because when the resources are there we can help more people stay in their homes and make sure that no child has to experience the hardship of homelessness Well I thank Madeline Ravitch again development adviser and director of the Be Home for Project at the Connecticut Coalition to End Homelessness also thanks to grace period 9th grade student at Hall High School and West Hartford who helped with this project Grayson I suspect with you to speak with the Today show produced by Carmen basket and our technical producer is chi own Wolf also thanks to Delhi n.p.r. 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Npr dot org Support for the college McEnroe show on Connecticut Public Radio comes from the Mark Twain House and museum and this program was previously. Today on the show we kind of know that we're in a bad place right now politically but how did we get here 100 get to this state intransigent entrenchment we're going to talk to Steve Kornacki he's a very interesting and well regarded political analyst at m.s.n. B.c. He's written a book about that traces it back to the 19 ninety's in 1009 years were where so many markers were believed down that remain in place today and there's some timely news here in the country and in Connecticut that harks back to the ninety's as well through the Clinton tour so we'll ask you about that also talk about real tribalism not just political trouble or some weird tribalism comes from it's a better story than the. Live from n.p.r. News in Washington I'm Jack Speer one of the top u.s. Diplomats is stepping down N.P.R.'s Scott Horsley reports you want to baster Nikki Haley's announced she'll be leaving her post by year's end Paley's announcement caught the international community by surprise although President Trump says it's been the works for months Haley offered no specific explanation for the move except to say she needs a break after 6 years as governor of South Carolina and nearly 2 representing the u.s. Before the United Nations I'm a believer in term of that from think you have to be selfless enough to know when you step aside and allow someone else to do the job Trump praised Haley's work at the u.n. And said he hopes he'll return to the administration in some other capacity he said there are many good candidates to fill the u.n. Position and suggested he might name a successor for Haley in as little as 2 weeks Scott Horsley n.p.r. News the White House President Trump says plans are being made for his 2nd summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong own he was briefed today by Secretary of State just back from Pan young as N.P.R.'s Michele Kelemen reports Secretary of State might pay always sounding upbeat about what he calls the real progress he's making in talks with North Korea he's just back from his 4th trip there in less than a year we can now see a pattern there where Wall achieve the ultimate goal which is the fall final verified the nuclear station or bridge I want to thank Chairman Kim for the time that I got to spend with him we got to talk about all the range of issues there in front of urging countries that will let us get there says he expects to announce in short order when and where Kim Jong un and President Trump will meet again spokesperson wouldn't say what the u.s. Hopes to get out of a 2nd summit Michele Kelemen n.p.r. News the State Department with Hurricane Michael rapidly gaining strength and appearing to set it sights on the Florida Panhandle authorities.
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Remember those killed in last month's shooting in Las Vegas and the victims of Sunday's church shooting in Texas co-host Carrie Underwood and Brad Paisley egg knowledge the Las Vegas tragedy as well as this week's mass shooting in Sutherland Springs Texas but they found their way to a parody aimed at President troubled. Will they. May follow the leads me. To be the man I want to be Pete winners Miranda Lambert took female vocalist of the year for the 7th time more than any other year I've ever been a part of the Emmys I feel truly like there's a family in this room tonight the references to Las Vegas were mostly about unity and praying for victims there was no mention of guns for n.p.r. News I'm Blake Farmer in Nashville this is n.p.r. News from Washington. A man convicted of killing 2 people in Florida in 1901 was put to death last night Patrick Hammond was the 3rd death row inmate to die in the state's sense executions resumed in August they were halted until changes were made to state law a death sentence in Florida now requires a unanimous vote by a jury the u.s. Supreme Court denied 2 requests by and its attorney to block the execution last night in Texas the state executed a Mexican national convicted of raping and killing his cousin in 1907 in Wisconsin the state Senate has approved a measure allowing residents of any age to hunt already Michaelson with member station Wu w.-m. Reports currently a Wisconsin resident must be at least 12 years old to hunt and children as young as 10 can hunt as long as they're accompanied by an adult the state Senate passed a measure on a party line vote effectively eliminating the state's minimum hunting age Democrats say the measure would put everyone in the woods in danger one called it quote absolute insanity but Republicans who control the legislature say parents should decide when children are old enough to handle weapons Governor Walker hasn't indicated where he stands on the bill if he signs it was constant would join $34.00 other states that have no minimum hunting age for n.p.r. News I'm Marty Michelson in Milwaukee Authorities in Nevada say no injuries occurred when a self driving shuttle bus was involved in a collision with a delivery truck on the streets of Los Vegas it happened less than 2 hours after the shuttle made its debut the driver of the truck was at fault I'm Dave Mattingly in Washington support for n.p.r. Comes from n.p.r. Stations other contributors include Cigna a global health service company dedicated to helping people improve their health well being and sense of security more information is available at Cigna dot com and the National Endowment for the Arts art works. Support for w. N.p.r. Comes from the Bushnell presenting the color purple a soul raising score of jazz gospel ragtime and blues December 5th through the 10th tickets at Bushnell dot org Support also comes from Connecticut geothermal Association educating Connecticut on some of the most efficient heating and air conditioning systems available learn more and find a local professional at c.t. Geo dot org This is in This American Life things are going well for David had a wife and young daughter an interesting job that took a moment for the world to one day everything took a sharp and expected very unpleasant turn and it did take me a while to realize that expects to be customer keep us the but when the monkey presses the button this week. Hope you can join us Saturday afternoon at one. Every once in a great while being start falling into place when forces lined up according to plan you might be forgiven for thinking that greater powers are play. And that's not just. Doesn't storytelling. Wasn't Saturday afternoon at 2 right here on w. N.p.r. . This is Morning Edition from n.p.r. News I'm Rachel Martin and I'm David Greene and Rachel let's get started in China this morning all right we'll start there because that's where President Trump is and he is on what the Chinese are calling his state visit plus the plus just the state vis a vis a plus David Plus apparently means more time on the ground and a whole lot more fancy ceremonial stuff today the Chinese leader Xi Jinping greeted Trump at the great hall of the people with a military band even some cannon fire later the 2 leaders delivered remarks side by side President Trump addressed what has been a key issue for him for a long time to American trade imbalance with China right now unfortunately it is a very one sided and unfair one but but I don't blame China. After all. Who can blame a country for being able to take advantage of another country for the benefit of its citizens I give China great credit China's president responded that China already buys a lot of American goods Ok Well we have this story well covered N.P.R.'s Anthony Kuhn and also our co-host Steve Inskeep are in Beijing and they're sitting you guys are side by side I'm imagining Yes hi guys you guys morning so Anthony was tell me about that comment the trial made I mean he seemed to be giving China praise but also saying that they're taking advantage of the United States what are the Chinese make of that. Well at the end of the day he said he doesn't blame China for the trade deficit and of course China doesn't like to be blamed especially by you know visitors as far as trade deficits are concerned I think they're perfectly aware that you get trade deficits because you consume more than you produce and you and the u.s. Is case borrow from China to make up the difference but you know President Trump really did have some very personal sort of praises for his he's in pain I think the nicest thing he said was to Xi Jinping you know your people are proud of you and have something you might not usually hear from a visiting head of state and so you know I don't know how sincere they thought it was but I think it went over well Steve what do you make of this is this president actually putting pressure on China or not I think you sending mixed signals at best to David he did say the trade practices between China the United States are unfair but he's also said over the course of this year he'd be happy to give away the store in effect give better trade deals to China if he could just get help with North Korea and observers on the outside trying to figure out the trumpet ministrations strategy or not as certain what that strategy is so there's been a wide mixture of remarks from the president a mixture of results and not a lot of clarity as to how he wants to change the relationship well this I mean speaking of changing the relationship or not Anthony China signed these business deals worth over $250000000000.00 with u.s. Business leaders who are in Beijing with President Trump is is that what does that mean is China really offering much the United States here. Well $250000000000.00 is not insignificant China is trying to increase imports it's imports from the us and a real interest I think is a natural gas China is probably going to become the biggest consumer of that and the u.s. Produces it but let's face it these deals are a one off things they're not structural issues u.s. Companies also want more market access to China and you know China says we're going to open our economy more to the world but did not give a lot of details about and let's remember David Xi Jinping in his remarks today with President Trump sitting there listening emphasized China already buys a lot of things a lot of cars and other goods from the United States and the implied message there is you've already got a good trading relationship it's fine he didn't explicitly say that but that is what his remarks effectively met because when you get away from the joint appearances by leaders in that cannon fire in the military music do you get a feel for how people in China view President Trump Yeah we've been talking with people on the streets and I want to play a little bit of tape of a couple of the people we've met in the last few days around Beijing here's a woman named Morris song she works in very internationalized area of Beijing she works for a foreign company and she compared the 2 presidents of the 2 countries as representatives of their nations times people tend to be allowed to marry if omo and. Larry. Yes I think his term of their representative upraised down to just speaks what he thinks in that he is not married to pick up the latest in which he sort of liked even though she didn't like a lot of his policies and then there's Oliver Wang who was a bit more biting very interesting and aware demand one of the richest person in the word wanting to represent the artist. So some people with mixed views of his style they also think a lot about President Trump's policies like climate change Chinese media have been emphasizing that China is still in the Paris climate accord President Trump wants to get out but we also encountered a Chinese woman today who said she likes President Trump because he wants to crack down on Muslims and she agrees with that sentiment now while just just said that the triggers are very bluntly. Anthony what about Chinese media I mean obviously I guess very close to the state which can represent what the state what's the message the state wants to get out but how how do they treat jumping from a general Ok Well just to give you an example I've got a copy of The People's Daily the most efficient paper in China here right now today right in front of you I like that right in front of us and right up on the front page is a big formal picture of the 2 1st families Trump and she in the Forbidden City and basically this one which is on all the major papers today says what a in a situation and grateful student of Chinese culture the Trumps are now down as old by the splendor of Chinese traditional culture they were during their visit to the From been sitting up lamenting Trump by way of saying China is great in effect that's the message and of course and only in the last paragraph does it mention you know that they talked about affairs of state and here's another one from a slightly more nationalistic Tampa Lloyd which says you know that Western media has been unfair to Trump he's a straight talker he's a pragmatist leaders and hassle China about human rights and so basically the Western and American press is stiffed us he's really a nice guys huge flattery of the president of the United States and I could a story that's wrong would probably love saying that the media doesn't treat him well it's a message like that to pound there at n.p.r. Beijing correspondent Anthony Kuhn and our co-host Steve Inskeep both in Beijing thanks so much to both of you. Right so back here in Washington Capitol Hill is consumed by talk of a possible tax overhaul consume the Senate Republicans are likely to unveil their tax plan today their colleagues in the House are continuing to try and move their own plan out of committee remember there's not a whole lot of time here President Trump challenged lawmakers to complete this thing by Christmas card N.P.R.'s Scott Detroit is here hey there Scott a morning David All right so the Senate is expected to unveil something today they have been keeping this pretty much under wraps do we know anything what we're waiting on a lot of the details but we know there will be one big difference the House bill that the Ways and Means Committee will likely approve later today is estimated to cost $1.00 trillion dollars over the coming decade the Senate plan has to be less than that because of the rules Senate Republicans need to use to pass it they can only cost maximum of $1.00 trillion dollars in terms of the amount that adds to the deficit one way to close that gap would be eliminating more loopholes and one way the Senate could do that would definitely get voters' attention and that would be going back to this idea of eliminating deductions for state and local taxes which has been a big point of debate within the Republican Party so this feels like movement the House Ways and Means Committee has spent days debating their bill now we have the Senate coming out with something is it looking likely that the president's Christmas goal of the party could meet it publicly Republican leaders are still committed to that but one big theme over 2017 has been one deadline or another to do to do this has slipped remember the initial plan was to pass that Obamacare repeal by something like April right as it happened it didn't happen getting so close on votes and then it didn't have that's right and one thing that Republicans in Congress have publicly complained about is these arbitrary deadlines the White House has put saying we want to vote by Thanksgiving we want to vote by Christmas but the fact is when it comes to a big tax overhaul sooner is better than later and Republicans are. Lize this if this kicks into next year it gets into primary season everyone in the House is running for reelection a lot of senators up as well they want this done in an odd numbered year as much as possible so still on course we'll see whether everyone's going to be celebrating Christmas in the capital Well let me let me ask you about the politics of all this I mean this is something that Republicans will say themselves they have to get it done to show that they are moving forward with an agenda overhauling the tax system was one of the party's big big promises are the stakes even higher now after the party you know how to had a bad day at the polls Yeah absolutely it's very clear that the Democratic voters of the Democratic base is very energized is willing to show up and vote and right now there are a lot of indications that the Republican base is just not that energized and one reason is Republicans have not gotten much done with the total control they have of the federal government leaders convinced a big tax cut could change that dynamic give them a boost with the base and something to sell and say hey here's what we did for you in Washington this year N.P.R.'s got to try to host N.P.R.'s Politics podcast and covers basically everything Washington's got Thanks thanks David. And this is n.p.r. News. I'm Thomas for coming up on the next on point domestic violence and mass shootings look at the link in Sutherland Springs Texas and beyond last Florida State comes down hard after a fraternity death look at the ongoing problems with Greek life that's coming up on the next on point from n.p.r. . Listen this morning at 10. Join the Institute for Advanced media's helping heroes wellness and family event on Veterans Day Saturday Nov 11th at 1100 hours produced by 4 and with our United States Armed Forces recharge with nutrition yoga massage therapy Reiki military benefits and jobs assistance at c.p.b. Ns headquarters on 1049 asylum Avenue and hard for register at I am dot c.p.b. N. Dot org from n.p.r. News in Washington I'm Dave Mattingly vice president Pence was among thousands of people gathered at a high school football stadium in Texas to remember the 26 people killed in Sunday's shooting at the 1st Baptist Church in Southern Springs we gather did a degree with those who grieve. But also we gather. In the resolve that this evil must come to an end in our land 20 people were also wounded in the shooting the f.b.i. Is still investigating what motivated Devon Kelly to open fire at the church he fled the scene and later took his own life after being chased by 2 local residents in Illinois a female attorneys and law clerks in Cook County are suing their boss and the county sheriff N.P.R.'s Cheryl Corley in Chicago says the class action lawsuit alleges the women are subjected to daily sexual harassment by male detainees in lockup areas behind the court rooms and that the public defender and Sheriff have done little to prevent it the women say the harassment includes verbal threats laden with explicit sexual violence while some attorneys suffered through numerous incidents of detainees exposing themselves or engaging in lewd acts and the lawsuit the women charged the public defender and the Cook County sheriff haven't done anything to stop the abuse and rescinded measures that were helpful like handcuffing detainees Wall Street futures are lower this morning I'm David Mattingly n.p.r. News in Washington support for w. N.p.r. Comes from u. Conn's Jorgensen Center for the Performing Arts in stores presenting tap under the nimble feet of Dorrance dance Street Club an experimental dance forms awake to the sound of furious rhythms Wednesday Nov 15th Jorgensen dot Yukon dot edu support also comes from the foot school a kindergarten through grade 9 independent school in New Haven nurturing curious and creative learners in a diverse community open house for grades k. Through to Saturday Nov 18th more information at foot school dot org. We talk about music critic. Author of a new biography of. Many people including. The writer comedian. Sunday afternoon. Sparking possibilities. It's Morning Edition from n.p.r. News I'm David Greene and I'm Rachel Martin thousands of people gathered under the bright lights of a high school football field last night in South Texas they came to pray and they came to mourn the 26 lives that were lost Sunday when a gunman opened fire on a church service in the town of Sutherland Springs vice president Mike Pence was there with faith leaders and other lawmakers N.P.R.'s Nathan Rott was there too it was a cold night in South Texas people from all over Wilson County huddled close in the bleachers of floor still high school's football field and they stood close or still listening I do not at all but then we will take them to Lisa's late March to as some of their neighbors their friends and their fellow Texans took their seats in a somber section below. It was to describe the Texas governor Greg Abbott and vice president Mike and spoke we gathered tonight in the wake of an unspeakable act both had visited the bullet riddled 1st Baptist Church earlier in the day in a nearby hospital where some of the 20 who were injured are still recovering from their wounds at the church pens admitted that bureaucratic failures helped the gunman procure his weapons but he said that the administration was working with Congress to make sure that it never happens again at the vigil parents spoke more about healing about faith and like many in the crowd he was defiant whatever animated the evil that descended on the church last Sunday if the attackers desire was to silence their testimony of faith he failed. Fences message was that faith overpowers evil and that message resonated with many including Courtney chill it's nice to see you know someone in the higher authority is coming to show their support but in general I came here to show support to my family and friends that have been affected by these tragic shootings chill it says she knew some of the victims to. The kids in my daughter's school are 2 of the children that have passed and it just hits home and related to them but people here are strong chill it says and the vigil shows they're not alone Nathan Rott n.p.r. News Sutherland Springs Texas and later today on All Things Considered how religious leaders are thinking through security and the challenge of making churches both welcoming and safe. And now story about starting over in a new place there are a lot of new students and teachers in Orlando's public schools this year that is because after Hurricane Maria many Puerto Ricans came to that city which is home to a 3rd of Florida's Puerto Rican population N.P.R.'s Claudio Sanchez visited some teachers who are settling into new roles in Orlando and finding that it's not so easy nearly 2000 new students have been rolled in schools here and they need teachers so the Orlando public schools have hired classroom teachers and paraprofessionals as well as bus drivers from Puerto Rico because so much of the island is still in the dark recent arrivals still cannot retrieve copies of their teaching credentials proof of employment or transcripts from where they are in their teaching degree that might mean they start out as a substitute teacher until we can find those credentials or gather what the state would require for their license that Superintendent Dr Barbara Jenkins who will be very creative in hiring them as teacher assistants are substitute teachers in the interim in fact we've we have quite a few that are in the process now of coming to work for us yet I've almost a veteran teacher from Puerto Rico arrived in Orlando with her 4 children still ambivalent about her career I am a strong freshman but it's been really hard because I had no need to be formally on you know. There. Despite teaching for 10 years she's starting over again as a para professional the full time job though means that she can now move out of her brother's house where she's been living for more than a month and she can start putting our life back together again. She says her home her students and her colleagues are never far from her mind I miss my keep me. They've been my coworkers for over 10 years you know it's kind of early to. My class. It's pretty rare though where you know if they're reading packed their bags or my computers were sealed. And. I'm not coming back yet is waiting for relatives back home and come away to send her the documents she'll need to be hired as a licensed classroom teacher like many teachers who left Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria Yano applied for a job at the airport contagion Iraq will get in but yet at least many grown up by the sound of it and that he has a head still empty take it counters the school district has set up dozens of tables and 2 am and what was once a vacant Turner fairly high school a woman with a clipboard reads the names of people waiting to be interviewed we're looking for teachers we're looking for major injuries we're looking for the bus drivers Brigid Williams is the school district's chief of staff she's overseeing the operation here and she says the message for the most recent arrivals is the same as it was a month ago when Jada arrived I talked with a number of those coming in that help in the ph d. In chemistry on th t. And in the physics and they realize they're going to have to go through this process and that's horrible historically and it could get harder school officials here say they're bracing themselves for a 2nd and 3rd wave of teachers from Puerto Rico looking for jobs go. Sanchez n.p.r. News across this country the opioid crisis continues to make headlines President Trump has declared this a national health emergency and studies have shown that athletes are uniquely vulnerable to opioid addiction and here's where we want to bring your voice into the conversation I. Don't mind a little longer and I have 2 questions really I was just wondering has anyone in government can say what was the 1st federal program. Talking with you know. We want to hear what's on your mind Dr sometimes for Scribe opioids for athletes in pain what do you want us to investigate about pain management sports and opioid use let us know you can ask us on Facebook you can ask us on Twitter we're at Morning Edition. Or you can find us online at npr dot org slash sports question your questions in an upcoming segment. This is n.p.r. News one of the hottest tickets on Broadway is the boss. Bruce Springsteen is playing a limited run and fans with tickets have a tough choice I guess I don't really want to know what a stupid decision from an economic standpoint I'm making I'm Kelly McEvers when you got one of these tickets should you sell or should you go this afternoon on All Things Considered from n.p.r. News. Morning I'm Rachel Martin how are you going to use your new Twitter powers German lawmaker saying now that we've all got 280 characters they want to tweet about a particular bill on beef labeling there are a lot of really long words in German and this is no exception then trash it take it to long eba vast. Evil toggle it's proved not to mention the German police who can now tweet about accidents involving forklift drivers need a flaw found. It's Morning Edition. This is burn out. Some of the best ways to help backyard birds through the winter mean doing less not more 1st leave the leaves tasty insects and spiders live under leash backyard birds like the Towhee in the song sparrow pick can kick through leaves again and again. Leave them will have drifted or Rick them up under your plantings 2nd don't Deadhead the plants in your garden birds like pine siskins and goldfinches love to smack on dead flower heads all winter long. First number 3 build an insect hotel for Ok there's some work involved in this one but it's a cool project for kids and adults to do together make a structure out of natural objects and found items to create little hidey holes for insects some of these cozy hotel guests will become food for Rennes and other birds . It's also a great way to repurpose all bricks and flower pots and bits of wood while creating your own sculpture. So Park the rake in the shed and the Clippers to the birds will thank you. Support for bird note comes from Songbird coffee offering bird friendly organic shade grown coffee for holiday giving more at Bird no dot org slash Songbird. Support for w. N.p.r. Comes from the Bushnell presenting the color purple a soul raising score of jazz gospel ragtime and blues December 5th through the 10th tickets at Bushnell dot org. Coming up on the next column McEnroe show cheerful topic what happens when you die what happens to your body when you die you can be cremated you can be buried but guess what there are some other options maybe you're not as familiar with those our guests will tell you other things that can happen to the body after death. Listen this afternoon at one support comes from Chase college at school copper beach Institute for mindfulness and University of Hartford Hart school. Morning Edition from n.p.r. News I'm David Greene and I'm Rachel Martin one year ago today Hillary Clinton conceded the presidential election to Donald Trump this is not the outcome we wanted or we worked so hard for and I'm sorry that we did not win this election for the values we share and the vision we hold for our country the outcome shocked Democrats ever since the party's been trying to pick up the pieces and we've been looking at how Trump selection has reshaped politics over the last year N.P.R.'s Scott Dutrow is here to talk about the Democrats Hi Scott good morning so seemed like for much of this past year Democrats have been stuck mentally stuck in 2016 specifically the 2016 primary right and that's right and it all came back to the surface last week with that news that the d.n.c. Had that financial agreement in place with the Clinton campaign before the primary these wounds are really deep and they just won't seem to heal just listen to how Nina Turner talks about them Turner is the head of Bernie Sanders political organization or revolution I do believe that the Democratic Party is going to have to have a rigid filiation you know trying to reach affiliation like they did you know in South Africa after apartheid truth the reconsideration and Scott they have not been willing to do that wow apartheid I don't bad it's has a right there if you're comparing the situation to that that's striking in terms of how deep the anger is for portions of the Democratic Party so the party's been trying to heal the divide in the meantime they still have to reach out to voters right how's that after an effort going well I think of that front Democrats feel like things have been going very well there's been this rehashing but also a lot of organizing and political engagement so I spent some time in Pennsylvania talking to Democrats we're going to spend a few minutes with the people I met there I went there because for all of the explanations for Trump's win and we've heard so many of them this week he's president for why. The main reason he flipped Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania. On the eve of the election and we Clinton rallied in front of 33000 people in Philadelphia the next day Democrats woke up all over Pennsylvania confident that the state would go blue like it had every election. Put on a pants suit put on clothes to represent the. Lives in suburban Philadelphia she and her daughter. The 1st woman we sat down to enjoy the election results together with my husband with balloons at the ready and champagne and made as we know. For many Democrats things. They did the incoming administration with fear and January 20th came and then 21st women smart. So many other cities helped organize a bus ride down I $95.00 and in that journey down with $53.00 women and 2 men had the opportunity to learn from each of them that we all had different reasons to be standing there and marching and all of them were issues that really mattered to all of us and it occurred to me that I had the background and the experience the background and the experience for Congress in fact who is one of the Democrats' best prospects. Are either retiring or. An Air Force veteran and a long time business executive and she's one of the Democrats running in a district that went for Clinton but also voted Republican for Congress and there's one big problem with that she says it's shaped like a dragon and the dragon basically has a bunch of bites and anywhere that you take it out of the back or the stomach of the dragon I would argue that those are where Democrats and the Democrats only have one real fix for this problem winning these types of districts in spite of their shapes so. They can draw the boundaries next time that's what Cheney parent had always trying to do in the Philadelphia suburbs so you know I'm going to Tiger I never show up unannounced and I don't show up without food or powder helped found a group called Turn ph blue it's a bunch of volunteers who are trying to shift resources from some of those Democratic legislative districts and into the neighboring Republican seats you know I'm 46 year old I have not met this many new people since I was a freshman in college and they are amazing they're incredible Arafat who has helped organize canvassing drives educational seminars and candidates. Like many Democrats in Pennsylvania and elsewhere she's responded to last year's loss with newfound political engagement that energy that began around the women's March has continued but the fact is the party is still out of power at all levels of government we are numerically speaking. Our lowest point either in 90 years or ever as a party since being founded by Thomas Jefferson and James Madison breaded Boyle is a Philadelphia congressman he says the solution is getting out of the cities and suburbs showing up to try and win back rural voters in my view it is completely insufficient to do what some Democratic strategist want us to do and just focus on getting 90 percent of the vote in a very small area and then ignoring the rest of the population while showing up maybe half the battle the 2nd half figuring out what to talk about is pretty important too like many other Democrats in Congress boil things the party needs to focus on the economy and I have a tablecloth now not to brag about my fancy. Democrats still haven't figured out just how to focus their message but there are plenty of people like Jamie parapet who will just keep organizing a vent after of that over the next year a lot of the big picture trends look like they could be forming in the party's favor things like low approval ratings but the fact is after what happened last year many Democrats. Just don't trust themselves to be confident I'm wondering who we're talking to are we talking to each other or who's listening. Ok we are back in the studio with N.P.R.'s Scott detritus Scott though so interesting hearing people reflect on the past year and how it's mobilized them I mean clearly some people are mobilized they're animated by this political moment and that we Democrats are getting some momentum there is pretty significant election wins this week for the party in Virginia and elsewhere what does that mean for the party moving forward I mean 1st of all it was just a big confidence boost Democrats are so disoriented right now that just winning elections went a long way you heard Democrats talk about showing up there they did that in Virginia competing in state House of delegate races all over the state and they made big gains a Virginia Senator Tim Kaine who you'll remember was the losing vice presidential candidate a year ago identified what he thinks those candidates did right you know John education health care for all just keep it simple you know focus on these bread and butter issues that people care about so much and Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey made the argument that focusing on the economy could keep Democrats away from all that infighting because by and large they agree on economic issues N.P.R.'s got that thanks so much Scott thank you. This is n.p.r. News. Cited the start of our best Thanksgiving recipes from the light caps and wines to just serve Mediterranean mashed potatoes easy make a head Turkey plain open salsa shrimp in let us wraps on the faith Middleton food schmooze right here n.p.r. . Listen this afternoon at 3 support comes from Carlo's pasta companions and home makers and Elm City market of New Haven. Next time on the New York Radio Hour a refugee remembers the city of Aleppo Syria as it was in the old days the 24 hour so you can go to need the strict block in the morning for block it's Ok it's a story of war and memory and Aleppo's famous brain said when you hear it's. That's next time on The New Yorker it. Wasn't Sunday morning at 10 right here on w. N.p.r. From n.p.r. News in Washington I'm Dave Mattingly President Trump has been holding more talks in China today with Chinese President Xi Jinping a major focus of their day to discussions has been the trade relationship between the u.s. And China it is a very one sided and unfair one but but I don't blame China. After all. Who can blame a country for being able to take advantage of another country. For the benefit of its citizens I give China great credit that's the president speaking earlier in Beijing where he referred to the u.s. Trade deficit with China as shockingly large jury deliberations are entering their 4th day in the federal corruption trial of New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez Joe Hernandez with member station w.h.y. Why says the Democratic lawmaker and his wealthy friend are accused of charges that include bribery prosecutors say Florida eye doctor Salomon Milligan plied Menendez with gifts over 7 years including free flights on a private jet vacations and political contributions in return they say mean and as used his power as a senator to benefit Malchen both men say they're simply old friends and never exchanged gifts for political influence the 2 have pleaded not guilty to the Chargers I'm Dave Mattingly n.p.r. News and Washington support for w. N.p.r. Comes from a hospital for special cares Golic the family c o p d disease management program providing new advances in therapies and treatments for a lifetime of care for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease learn more at h f c dot org. W. N.P.R.'s Health Equity and Access Project provides in-depth coverage of access to health care while raising awareness about health disparities among Connecticut residents you can find stories on w. N.p.r. And w.r. Org funding provided by the Connecticut Health. The next. It's saxophonist Jimmy Greene playing music from this album beautiful life a tribute he wrote for his daughter. Goal is to have people look them selves in the mirror and say What am I doing to make this world either what it is today or better than it is today I'm Christian McBride and it's on the next jazz night in the. Hope you can join us Saturday night at 9. After a period of emotional and financial turmoil Ted Leo got a look from his fans who crowd funded his new album Oh wait I did not know that I was carrying just went away and like. Now I can just be creative Ted Leo joins us for an interview and an intimate solo performance in front of an audience this week on sound. Listen Saturday night at 10. am this week for. 21st century. Stars. And. That's this week. From the Public Radio International. License Saturday night at 11 right here on w n.p.r. . Edition from n.p.r. News I'm Rachel Martin and I'm David Greene Senate Republicans are expected to unveil their version of a tax overhaul today like the House bill that's already moving along the Senate version is being touted as a way to keep more money in Americans pockets but for millions of middle income earners and high cost states the changes could eliminate big tax deductions for member station Charles Lane reports Westfield New Jersey is one of the highest taxed places in the country to a tax cut that sounded great Cassy Smith but the house g.o.p. Plan instead hit with a thud while I was hoping that they would give us more things to deduct on our tax returns honestly because that would make us be able to stay here Smith is a bookkeeper and a husband is an auto mechanic because of the high cost of living in northern New Jersey they've often talked about moving but right now they're doing what they can to keep school taxes down by organizing this garage sale to raise money for the high school football team so they can get new helmets or new cleats or have breakfast this mitts pay nearly $12000.00 a year in property taxes because they live close to New York City there's a lot of density in need for bridges and trains and police living near such an expensive big city also pushes incomes higher even for blue collar workers and puts them in a higher tax bracket being able to deduct local income and property taxes even things out but would do sing those deductions as the House plan currently does means no tax savings in fact the Smiths worry that their tax bill could go up I'm not going to tell my boss Oh my taxes went up 600 dollars this year you need to give me 600 dollars more and pay $600.00 is probably on the low side an analysis by the Tax Policy Center a research group suggests that while most Americans will see a tax cut almost 10 percent of middle class workers will see an immediate increase of more than a $1000.00 but the Smiths and others in high cost states lie. New Jersey Connecticut Massachusetts surveyed Ginia could see higher increases libertarian Walter Moores says maybe that's a good thing in the long run other states would say we have too much government here in New Jersey Lewis is with the New Jersey taxpayers association and has been pushing to lower property taxes in New Jersey some argue that losing these deductions just might finally push local tax rates down Also why should taxpayers in Wichita subsidize public pensions in New Jersey someone from say Oklahoma or Texas or Kansas will say well look you're probably starches are much higher and you have a higher level of service so you're kind of getting what you pay for over there this is exactly what worries left leaning groups John White It runs the New Jersey policy perspective and fears that without these deductions voters were volte against local taxes depriving local governments of resources it would be one thing if if they were taking away this deduction and racking up investments they were going to come to state and local governments but they're taking away this deduction and cutting taxes for the wealthiest Americans and for large corporations under his analysis of the House Republican plan the country's top 5 percent would net more than 60 percent of the tax cuts over another research group the Tax Foundation says that cutting the corporate tax rate will eventually increase g.d.p. Growth and boost stock prices and create almost a 1000000 new jobs for n.p.r. News I'm Charles Lane. Support for Planet Money comes from t.i.a.a. Whether it's investing advice banking or retirement t.i.a.a. Believe smart financial decisions should enable life not define it t.i.a.a. Calls this the new success story learn more it I am a dot org. This is n.p.r. News. Support for w. N.p.r. Comes from Cabot choose a farmer owned a co-op offering Cabot cracker cuts pre-sliced cheese is available in resealable packages and 6 varieties more information at Cabot cheese dot co up support also comes from ever source providing energy efficiency solutions to businesses big and small with lighting heat cooling and building control solutions to help transform your business every source and energize Connecticut ever sourced dot com. Long Island Sound has a new caretaker keeper to be exact on the next really live fish and wildlife biologist Bill Lucy will tell us more about his rule and experience he brings to his work on the sound you can join the conversation on the next. In this morning at 9 support comes from Columbia dental and Harriet Beecher Stowe Center this is Kristy Lee inviting you to tune in this weekend for a Prairie Home Companion with our guests. In the night sweats miss and Mitchell and a bit of humor from John Hodgman the Royal Academy of radio actors will be there Tim Russell Stringer Brooke and Fred Newman along with our resident staff critic Trent Falstaff Plus our 1st call radio players to Rose and my son. Was on Saturday night at 6 am Sunday night at 9 support for w. N.p.r. Comes from West Hartford community theater presenting Once Upon a Mattress Broadway's original fractured fairy tale a whole areas retelling of Princess and the Pea with music dancing and uproarious characters weekends November 11th through the 19th West Hartford theater dot org. It's Morning Edition from n.p.r. News I'm David Greene and I'm Rachel Martin we're now going to introduce you to a Japanese American author who writes in an African-American voice Joe comes by that voice naturally he grew up in Los Angeles and a black neighborhood that helped shape not only his speech but the settings for his bestselling crime novels that feature a young black protagonist Karen Grigsby Bates from our Code Switch team took a walk with the author. And I are standing where he grew up in the sixty's with his parents and grandparents on busy Adams Boulevard south of downtown l.a. My grandparents lived here because it was close to Little Tokyo and other Japanese families had fled to the suburbs but they couldn't afford to move there and my family who lived with them because we were just scraping by so as 3 generations of us on the work group were the only Japanese family in the neighborhood has immigrant grandparents kept to themselves His parents were often at work which left Joe and his 2 brothers running around with the neighborhood kids most of their friends were black kids around here kids from the neighborhood everybody was pretty much the same I think companies are sort of level the playing field the families wouldn't home was torn down years ago but there are a number of places that are still here like this shrine that was where my 1st girlfriend lived she was ahead we have taller than me and I've weighed about 40 pounds somebody said that when we held hands it looked like. She was a ventriloquist with a Japanese puppet Joey De is 59 years old small with a shock of graying hair and bright bird like I said Don't miss a thing behind this classes or what is now going right on the corner used to be a Chinese school we test the wretched corner store that he and his 2 brothers used to patronize after school it was run by a sour faced Chinese proprietor who became the basis for Tommy Lal a gangster who appears in a daze 2nd Temple people. Chain of use he would show up in a Lincoln Continental in a suit and if he was unhappy with somebody to say anything he just looked at them until they either imploded or burst into flames be debarred from themself a bit to create his hero I see it for i.q. I.q. Is a high school dropout who screen intelligence and restless spirit enable him to work as a home made private eye in his east Long Beach neighborhood the little noisy neighborhoods walk down the street around. Eat a kind of floated through high school not part of the usual tribes and not motivated to get more than Ok great motivation kicked in in college where he earned a bachelor's degree then a Masters in education he told me the plan was to teach but there was one little problem I discovered I really didn't like kids they were noisy and fussy you know they kept asking me questions he lasted for a semester then was a university lecturer didn't like that either after that a string of jobs everything from a business consultant to Apartment Manager nothing felt right it is says he was always restless looking for something he couldn't define except this way I just didn't want to solve a problem that somebody else but he says he wanted to write for years and finally decided to try it he wrote screenplays on spec and was lucky enough to have an agent friend who critiqued his work he listened to the criticism learned and after a dozen failures Finally I wrote a good. Hard work writing screenplays was profitable did it for years then finally burned out what he really wanted to do was write books so he took a deep breath quit screenwriting and those lovely paychecks and got down to business what I recall is just sitting on my desk in my pajamas typing a lot. Talking to my dog and dripping charcoal juice on my keyboard. The result was i.q. Which introduced readers to Isaiah Quintard a. Smart driven and angry he's traumatized by the still unsolved hit and run death of his older brother Marcus his only family Joey day says while Isaiah tries to find the driver who killed Marcus he works for people in his neighborhood he takes the cases that the police can't or won't get involved with any charges people whatever they can afford which is usually something like a sweet potato pie or a live rooster who has now his personal alarm clock a 100. Game i.q. Is hired to find the would be killer of a rapper black the night Black has no interest in joining Biggie and Tupac in the great beyond the caper goes from blacks suburban McMansion to the l.a. Marina where Isaiah for a kidnapper who snatched a Latina child for very perverse purposes in righteous we get to know I say is former classmate Dobson a cranky pragmatist with a genius for the barely legal side hustle the 2 are in Las Vegas tracking the disappearance of a cute gambling addicted d.j. She owes a lot of money to a Chinese gangster who sounds an awful lot like the guy who own that corner store where Joey De grew up thank you. Adam reading it books in Los Angeles tells his audience sometimes he writes what didn't happen to him growing up so when I was writing about. Martin's and their relationship I was writing about the relationship I didn't have. To certain. People it s. a One are mostly African-American and passionate about books when asked today how he got the books black voices so accurately he credits his old hood with giving all 3 boys a good dose of flavor. Pretended to be black. We never fooled anybody. In truth e.j. Says his outsider status has served him well i'm since murky fringe you know I mean I wasn't. Going way far from. It so. I'm always on the it's watching listening but not really in the mix being out of the mix and being able to believably embrace cultures beyond his own has resulted in critical praise and a contract to turn i.q. Into a series for cable but Joey days learned his lesson about screenplays he said if somebody else do that he's concentrating on the future adventures of. Karen Grigsby Bates n.p.r. News. Good morning you're listening to Morning Edition I'm David. 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Radio-programNpr-programsFormer-spanish-coloniesTaxationAmerican-male-singersTax-lawTeachingBullyingIsland-countriesReal-property-lawTaxation-in-australiaWest-hartford-connecticut But she came in with a deep suspicion of. Their motivations the nickname she got from the staff was the Ice Queen on call raised all the 1980 s. E.p.a. And its lessons for today that is next time on Marketplace. Can interact at $630.00 . As a chance of showers today otherwise partly sunny highs in the mid seventy's partly cloudy skies tonight lows around 48 mostly sunny tomorrow highs the 61 good afternoon thanks for tuning and I'm Kyle And Wolf it's 1 o'clock the Collin McEnroe shows next and support comes from Hartford Stage copper beach institute a landmark community theater at the Thomaston Opera House and Ridgefield Playhouse presenting bed very. On the day that we're doing this show the year of unexpected outcomes is exactly one year old it could be actually over it started a year ago when the soccer team football team called Leicester City overcame 5000 to one betting odds to win the Premier League and since then all kinds of things that are not supposed to be happening have been happening and yes that includes the election of Trump and to a certain degree Bracks it. Posed to win the Oscars seems like maybe they do. And of course in sports it has just been straight out crazy all the time so we've been talking about the show for a while now we're going to do it we're going to try to figure out what it means that so many on into supported things have come out the way that they've come out right after this news. Live from n.p.r. News in Washington Johnston President Trump is touting the newly reached budget agreement that will keep the government running until September he says it includes a badly needed increase in military funding we will be spending more money we are doing the necessary Monday we're going to have the finest equipment of all types whether it's airplanes or ships or equipment in general that we've ever had in the history of our country we are taking care of our military and we're not going to go back to what we were doing for the last long period of time Terry is going to be taken care of that I promise you the president's remarks come days after he accused Senate Democrats of seeking a shutdown and obstructing Republicans during budget negotiations members of Congress are grilling airline executives on Capitol Hill today over the practice of over booking flights lawmakers are calling on airlines to empty. Of customer service policies after a passenger was violently dragged off an overbooked flight last month after he refused to give up his seat N.P.R.'s Camilla dominance he reports representatives of United Alaska American and Southwest Airlines were on Capitol Hill for a hearing on airline customer service several executive said overbooking keeps costs down and helps them serve more passengers but members of Congress asked if it was really necessary and questioned if it actually keeps fares low they noted Southwest has decided to stop over booking flights Here's Representative Blake Farenthold of Texas I can't remember the last time the United fare was lower than a Southwest fare one thing was clear at the hearing members of Congress fly a lot and they don't find the experience pleasant many representatives shared stories of their own frustrations Kamila dominant n.p.r. News Iowa Governor Terry Branstad is reassuring senators that he would push for American values and a healthier trade relationship with China if confirmed as ambassador N.P.R.'s Michele Kelemen reports on his confirmation hearing today Branstad 1st met Chinese President Xi Jinping back in 1985 when she was visiting Iowa the governor is highlighting that as he seeks support in the Senate if confirmed I hope to use my unique position as an old friend of President Xi and I trusted confident of President Trump to positively influence the u.s. China relationship or instead is promising to represent American values upholding human rights and what he calls a rules based order in the ocean surrounding China he also says he wants to open up Chinese markets to more American goods and he hopes to visit every province in China Michele Kelemen n.p.r. News Washington stocks are trading higher at this hour on Wall Street the Dow is up $27.00 points the Nasdaq up 5 this is n.p.r. News. The State Department is warning Americans traveling to Europe this summer of the ongoing threats of terrorism officials say they're concerned about future attacks after reported incidents in France Sweden Russia and the u.k. The travel alert urges Americans to be cautious and check in with u.s. Embassies for up to date security messages when Mexican drug lord Joaquin El Chapo Guzman was arrested last year a power struggle began inside his Sinhala cartel James Frederick reports messing and authorities have arrested one of the men vying for control of the muscle Lopez Mel Chappell in prison and the 1990 s. And allegedly helped the campaign and his 2 escapes both u.s. And Mexican authorities listed him as the new number one in the Siena lower cartel since all tramples capture but Lopez's arrest in Mexico City may only make things more volatile he had been battling against Al tempo sons for control of the cartel which has essentially been split this fractured seen a low a cartel has been blamed for a spike in violence in some traditionally peaceful areas this week 7 civilians and one Marine were killed in a shoot out near the tourist resorts of Los Cabos for n.p.r. News I'm James Frederick in Mexico City an anti missile defense system installed in South Korea is now operational the so-called bad system is intended to protect South Korea from North Korean missile threats the system has many critics in South Korea over the weekend the North attempted to launch another missile but failed I'm Winsor Johnston n.p.r. News in Washington support for n.p.r. Comes from n.p.r. Stations other contributors include c 3 i.o.t. Bringing cloud computing artificial intelligence machine learning and I ot big data solutions to commercial industrial and government business processes learn more at c 3 i.o.c. Dot com. Wrapped up in your reading your back foot think you. Can come out. Of that for. Me Thank. You. I really. Think. Yeah yesterday I got out of the. Farm just for one day or so I shall. Have been known for. 3 barrage of. The runs of the treadmill for a very valid liking fly out of Delhi for. Me to tear it up. I don't get your flag do you really believe in my mind of things left at all. Let me. Let me dig them. Up you don't care. If the government really wants to fuck off we're going back to the mill. That's so. Important with some cast he's rolled up in the great map fold spring. Wrap your. Mind here all of the gentleman here are just going to feel damn pick some There's no frequency for your. Own a. Half. 7 percent thing really really. Don't. Run from the well through. Her of the full spam. Been. Part of. Their staff right. I'm not supposed to just because and then all of you are all I really know how to time and American around I am there and I'm right sometimes the pope did very are going to jump frog why don't I believe my rats will let. Me run for you. I have no career I have a familiar Frank and I roll around ram little or no sorry under oath a little I don't think the outcomes. Are laid out on firm ground to run the come come to Little Carol. I don't know if we're going to be able to do the show after About All right so what are we doing today well we are we've got this thing that we need that we've been referring to as the year of unexpected outcomes let me just say this our anchor guest today is Mike Pesca He's the host of Slate's daily podcast The gist I listen to the gist every day. Mike and I think in a similar way about certain things and so sometimes I'm not entirely sure which ideas are his and which ideas actually came from me I think the responsible thing to do under those circumstances is to claim that they're all my ideas. But one thing that Mike has also talked about is that you know it's really kind of a year to the day because a year ago today the Leicester City while you weren't paying any attention overcame at least betting odds of 500212 win the English Premier League in what they call football and since then this whole Well let's actually before we bring Mike aboard Let's hear a montage I love a nice montage so Leicester fans of course joining in the celebrations a team started this season as 5000 to one underdogs to win the title they caution play optimist thank you so much of this was such a thing of the you know you do so you see I feel like such as what Cavaliers who would be a champion and see their projects Donald Trump will carry the state of Florida I will trump will carry the state of wish they have a has put it to leave the European Union and his story with a very deep and long lasting memory don't you. Think how lucky we are in the World Series was that's remarkable and I mean this is just really the beginning of the end for Holden's and the e.u. Were thousands of the like the only historic moment that we think for example the winner of the presidential race either rejects the only choice wins the presidency was a truck will be the one that this is there's a mistake it's too late you guys won best picture they were not I mean I'm thrilled I'm ecstatic tonight that down Trump is one I almost can't believe it I really thought you know we were going to be looking at a big Hillary landslides night tonight they were this picture were the all right so Mike Pesca host of the just 3 misdemeanor. Just the turkey flavored food palates yeah along along the way I suppose that there were tiny little surprises that always happens but yeah it's just that all the biggest sporting events Well I guess this was a little outside the year but there was a comeback Villanova one the n.c.a.a. Tournament at least for a time that seemed to be surprising yeah it is just such a remarkable year a funny thing is that some of those supposed upsets weren't real upsets some of those supposed upsets were unbelievably you know mathematically provable I don't really think the Patriots could have come back except that they did and so it's a miss it's a mishmash of us not understanding the odds us understand the odds of them being really amazing or us understanding the odds and just thinking I can't believe the Cubs won even though they were never nearly as down as say the Patriots were well and there's a lot of things that we have to kind of thread from one another but. When you say things that maybe weren't all that improbable I mean we probably overestimated the improbability of Brax right Rex It probably was more probable than we were saying it was that's the best that's the best example and they got a 5 to 8 will always tell you because they've been getting inundated with shows what you smart people have to know and Harry and in and those guys will always say before Briggs it the odds said or the polls said that brags it was going to happen it didn't say it by much the betting markets did integrate but those are people who are laying wagers but the actual polls indicated before brags that right before brag that that was going to happen so there you go so and I think another thing that we have to separate one thing from another so there are some things where we we stand at the threshold of that thing and trying to gauge its probabilities of arming the presidential election or Brecht's it would be an example of that and then there are other things and particularly in this age of sports metrics where because of these. Things like Win expectancy or win probability that go into the game or go into a series the fact that it's improbable I mean it wasn't improbable before the Superbowl started that the Patriots were going to win right it just as things went along it became more and more improbable that they would win it went up to you know 9396 percent based on you Bill he believed and for people who don't know about that explain how that happens or why that happens there and it by the way I think the Super Bowl was the most improbable at one point in last if you count the point where where moonlight had already lost the Academy Award like that the moment that some other it was La La Land was up on stage except the Academy Awards that it was the probable I think I think I think you said on the just at that point Lo and had a 100 percent chance of winning and you know there was a you couldn't measure it Ok so in game probability there are a few ways to calculate it the kind of dumbest but cleanest way is to just load in every other game that's ever happened and see at this point in a $25.00 to $14.00 game with this much time left and which whichever team is possession how often does a comeback occur smarter calculations will also factor in the strength of the relative teams so if you're talking about the Patriots maybe you'd up their chances of having a comeback versus say the Detroit Lions So from that in game probability of when they found pins were leading I've seen estimates far above 99 percent that the Falcons would have won that game just based on everything that's ever happened before. You know we're all human beings I mean we all want to be smart too and I like 538 and I like Harry and to him but there's a part of me that has has seen a kind of erosion in my belief about data science like I know that there are really good explanations for why I shouldn't just because of all these things that shouldn't make me become a disbeliever or a scab. About data science I don't know how are you handling those kinds of distances Yes and I've thought about this a lot I think that the data the good data scientists themselves would say that they are an example of being skeptical about certainty and science so 538 and Nate was saying again and again that when we're giving our prediction of Hillary's chances of winning being in the high sixty's that is a correction to the New York Times account which was saying 90 and also you know that Princeton consortium really just that one neurologist guy who is saying it was 99 percent that's ridiculous I think the I think that we should have faith in data science so long as it you know continues to acknowledge its flaws but one flaw that even 538 is not acknowledging is that it is it is mockable to come up with that amount of precision so it is mockable to say our model moved point 5 points our model moved 1 point one points it is crazy to say that she really has a 68 percent chance of winning are you sure it's not 71 well it might be 71 are you sure it's not 63 Yeah just like to be 63 so basically what they're saying they they move around these numbers who keep going to the website but it would be unfair to say I think she has a very strong chance of winning just not overwhelming but what you going to do like Update very strong to not overwhelming you're going to color code it like like the old terrorism warning system I mean that's why you have numbers and that's why you have tenths of numbers which gets even even crazier we haven't gotten to that level of uncertainty. You know that level of precision with our uncertainty that it probably doesn't exist and the last thing I would say is I used have a lot more faith in the betting markets but the betting markets are just a poor translator of things like 538 smile and when the betting markets Leicester City was 5000 to one well there were only 20 teams in the English Premier League so the reason they were 5000. One wasn't that they really only had a one in 5000 chance it was you know a bookie to get some action on Leicester City put up a number that was way too big and you know it was too big not just because they won but I think a rational person would say well that's definitely an order of magnitude too big and I used to have a lot of faith in the betting markets and now I almost if there's a good prediction model I almost totally discount the betting markets right so that's that you just described the flaw in the betting markets and why the 5001 thing I think you're in serious people don't really ultimately taken seriously although the serious people at 538 do cite it all the time but I think the other the other implicit. Aspect of the did of the betting markets is our believe that when something is on the line that there's a kind of a hive mentality a collective wisdom that begins to do so may be intuitive sort something that's a little bit harder to quantify that somehow or other if people have skin in the game they have money on something they are going to think about this in a much more calculated and calculating way but I suppose that's all kind of you know that's kind of you know fairies flying around the sky that I'm talking about right now oh no I think that if that is the only thing I had to go by if there was just no precision in polling but there were betting markets saying that you know they thought that Hillary was going to win and then there were a bunch of bunch of pundits you know Durham by their own agendas predicting who's going to win I definitely go with the betting markets but the betting markets are informed by good polling and good polling is aggregated by an aggregator site like $538.00 so my hierarchy would be a really good aggregator site a 538 Ask site then the polls I trust most and then under that the betting markets and the betting so why trust the betting markets if you have the other 2 things. Another thing we have to acknowledge is that certain things will eventually happen there are some things that will never happen I used to have this editor when I was a young newspaper writer who had this thing called the 3 minute mile rule. It was you know people walk in a newspaper offices and claim all kinds of things all the time and he would say look if someone comes in and says you're a mile in 3 minutes I mean you can spend all you can go out of the truck with them if you really want to but he didn't you know. So don't waste your time on that was you happen have a lot of time on your hands so there's that kind of thing but then you take something like the n.b.a. Playoffs well it just turns out that being 3 down 3 to one in the n.b.a. Playoffs in the finals was something that you couldn't come back from prior to last year that if you were down 3 to one it happened I think 33 previous times and no but no team and ever come back I think no human might have even ever come back to tie the series 33 but that just means that's going to happen at some point right the fact that it's never happened is not a reason to believe it will never happen yeah I mean $33.00 times is not the greatest sample size and also of those $33.00 times how many times was Le Bron James involved and I would also say with the Patriots there's maybe one quarterback on earth who I would say well I'm worried but not extremely worried and that's Tom Brady the thing that really kills me is that I now have to put Donald Trump in that category right well we are talking about Le Bron James Tom Brady and the other great comeback kid Donald Trump I just want to go back to that idea when you were talking about you know maybe let's discount what the betting markets say we. I was just thinking about yesterday Trump floated this idea maybe I'll do Glass Steagall and the markets which is you know the stock market is an example of a betting market sentry said yeah we don't believe you and it's so I think the markets are exactly right so we in our daily lives what the betting markets have to say or what people with actual skin in the game have to say do dictate outcomes or do you know show us what probabilities are and they're more right than wrong and the last thing I would say about all this is you know we do have this tendency that it was a year of upsets and yet. And yet Garrett villagers lost in the Netherlands and yet Hillary did beat Bernie so I thought Hillary will win the general election and on the just kind of was maybe over reassuring ever said it was certain but I thought it was overwhelmingly likely and you know people rightly criticize me for that but I'm my girlfriend to point out Well you also said the same you were just as certain that Hillary was going to win if not more certain that she was going to be Bernie and you were right about that but I guess that is true all these things that we say won't happen so many of them don't happen and for every Leicester City that wins with 5000 to one odds come on the Jets aren't going to win this season so you're back to the betting markets do I mean one thing that bookmakers have done is change the odds of speaking of Donald Trump of Donald Trump being impeached or of Donald Trump simply not finishing his term right the odds of Shorten recently to 11 to 10 I think against him making it all the way through a full 4 year term and this is course I think it's a lot of brokes which is the same place that did $5001.00. Lester but you know I mean you look at something like that you think well what's that even based on once again it feels like it almost has to be based a little bit on gut. Yeah I think it's probably based on them putting out a number that gets attention I don't know how big the markets are I don't think that their exposure is so big I mean what they want how a bookie sets a line is you try to have the equal not equal amount of money on both sides but when it's an enormous line like $5000.00 to $1.00 if those extreme long shots that you just put out there in a version of Hey hanging us shingle and trying to get some attention for any of those extremely long shots come in bookies always take a bath but in general what a bookmaker is trying to do is not actually predict the outcomes are just trying to gauge where an equal amount of money will be on both sides so it's that's where the public or the betting public thinks is a reasonable chance but I do also think with like the American election markets it's more about trying to draw attention to yourself from sites like Paddy Power Ladbrokes All right so speaking of skin in the game and this might be something that you don't know about because the team which baseball team I happen to know that you root for but there's a company called Jordan for mature and they run a promo I think just I think they were in promo for many consecutive years now let's hear one of their commercials in 2007 the Red Sox swept the world championship and $25000.00 Jordan's customers got over $30000000.00 in free furniture Well we're doing it again so if you need for that you're a mattress now is the time this season if the Sox sweep the world championship all of your furniture mattresses will be free that's right free and this year you can also get up to 60 months no interest with no matter what the Sox treat you with all right so the way that that works is going to buy the furniture from some dated March to some date in April you lock it in and so in 2007 I mean he had to pay out on that now $1.00 thing that I did find out Mike is that Jordan's Furniture the parent company is Rocher Hathaway So that's Warren Buffett who also does this Marge mad. This challenge for his employees where you can win a $1000000.00 a year if you correctly name all of the Sweet 16 and. I don't know the make of all this except there's an example of a guy who presumably has to go to Lloyd's or some other insurance company and say what do I have to pay you to indemnify me against this happening yes that's exactly how it works there are these reinsurers and their business is to insure promote crazy promotions like that or a half court shots or the long shot into the tiny hole in hockey they they all have insurance and so it just becomes arbitrage at that point and the I assume that the insurer knows more about baseball than the guy from Jordan's Furniture for instance that was called the World Series not the world championship but putting that aside they will discern the odds probably by looking at what the odds are in Vegas they will give a price that's worse than the Vegas odds they may even lay off some of their money you know a really really insurance where if they you know underwrite 3 companies offering a Red Sox sweep Maybe they'll put some money on something other than a Red Sox sweep in Las Vegas you know we thought it we wondered about the same thing but I sort of wondered if World Series is a lesson simple term that maybe any money to anybody just out for go the World Championship who's going to come after me right maybe he has a World Series a superball and then Olympics bat and one is called the World Championship the other is called The Big Game in the 3rd is called the festival of nations. All right so we're talking to Mike Pesca He's the host of Slate's Billy Budd the just what you have to start start listening to if you haven't and I already know what it's about today it's going to be very funny you have to listen to it all right when take a little break we're going to add a cognitive science scientists to our conversation and of the air you dish level ever so slightly. You. Can see them in. Case people. This is the Collin McEnroe show on n.p.r. Where support comes from Northeast Medical Group a part of Yale New Haven health with more than 700 physicians in 130 locations from Westchester to Old Saybrook find a local physician at Northeast Medical Group dot org. Robin Young Jimmy Webb has a new caution a memoir about writing iconic songs and just a teen and hearing one on the radio and just for a minute it hit me I'm a part of this moment and I don't know how this happened. Here now. Dry That's today at 2 pm. Support comes from Hartford Stage presenting George Bernard Shaw's Heartbreak House a household full of eccentric bickering guests gives us lessons in romance politics and the art of navigation May 11th through June 11th only for information hard for staged out of work and from Bouvier insurance an independent insurance agent for a home auto or business Bouvier insurance proudly serving the insurance capital of the world since 1959 local agents local service local savings learn more at b insurance dot com. Now back to college McEnroe. We're talking about the year of unexpected outcomes or the era of unexpected outcomes what kind of fun find out soon I guess I mean we might find out of the Kentucky Derby might be our next opportunity of profiteer or some no sun a tear I'm sorry I think Simon here has long odds something worse with long odds does it maybe that maybe it keeps going maybe it's all over baby we just made the whole thing up no matter what Mike Pesca is the host of Slate's daily pundit podcast I know that's true and I'm going continuing basis and that is called the just he's with us right now Jim Davies is joining us a cognitive science at Carleton University in Ottawa and the author of rivet of riveted the science of Wired jokes make us laugh movies make us cry in religion makes us feel one with the universe so Jim gave us 1st of all welcome to the conversation that Mike and I are having. So much so when one thing that we know is that when these unexpected outcomes happen it's often quite shocking almost emotionally shocking to people so I mean when Donald Trump be got being elected president of the United States in 2016 it was upsetting to some people because they didn't want him to be president but there was another we've of shock just in the sense that it defied so many predictions that there was so much numerical evidence so to speak sitting there saying it wasn't going to happen so what can you tell us about that why do why do we react in the way that we do when something happens that quote unquote isn't supposed to happen. Yeah so you know getting. People getting upset course that only applies to the people who didn't want Trump to be president so you know when when something happens to you on expected that's a really good even though it's completely unexpected it's usually an overall positive emotional response that you get to with some people find you know that it's a little bit stressful in a very mild way because it's just unexpected and chaotic but usually the good overpowers the bad for that so but on the other hand I think we're pattern seekers right and so when we I mean it's a huge you could say more about this it's adaptive for us to be creatures who seek out patterns. Yes So you know we are creatures who are born being able to do almost nothing and we have to learn over time how to adapt to the environment and they're taken care of by a parent for many years and what that means is that any person who's born who doesn't have any curiosity about how to figure out how the world we're not going to make it so we end up with a really very deep evolutionary drive to learn things that they seek out patterns all over the place and in this explains why we play Sudoku puzzle or crossword puzzles or things like that but it also you know makes us see patterns and you know we're a little bit hyper sensitive to it so often see patterns where there aren't any right so let's go on to different Yeah well let's go back to Mike on this so and this is an interesting thing Mike because sometimes the people who know the most about something are the people who are the most irrational about it and I have in my mind athletes athletes who who doubtless really do understand quite a bit about why they get a hit or don't get a hit nonetheless are ascribing significance to all kinds of crazy patterns What do you make of that Mike but also some of the most scientifically inclined to athletes you know Wade Boggs who could break down a pitcher and is the master of his craft will also eat a whole chicken before every meal because of superstition so I think it's a yang and yang working together you know maybe it's trying to have exert some control over the parts of they their task that they know they have no control over so wait boss can say I could do all these things right and maybe the fielder will be positioned in the right place so therefore my chicken will you know occupy that part of my soul that I could give over to anxiety and what I don't know but if I can ask Jim Davy's past just get asked a question it was fascinating when you said you know the mild exuberance that people feel how long does that last Could that explain the Trumps ongoing popularity with his base I know it's other things but I just haven't heard that before that one reason why Trump seems not to have lost anyone who voted for him is just that they were so surprised by the fact that he won and they like that feeling . Yeah I don't you know I don't really know of any science that was it is that it doesn't seem like. This you know we have a 2 way to prove very quickly and I think that. The goodness of getting your candidate elected is something that can last but they be surprise combined with the going to Doesn't the strike me as something that would last for a long time and I have to say I don't really know of any science to back that up well let me put I actually I think Mike's on to something really interesting at least from our Lay point of view which is that we know that when some of these one particular predictable things happened released in the brain and Trump keeps doing stuff where people like me and Mike and the pundits say nobody does that that not presidents don't do that but that doesn't happen nobody talks like that are we getting or is somebody getting little joy it's jolts of dopamine every time that happens. Yeah sure and opioids too you know that don't mean system is thought of as pleasure but it's also compulsion and activity so you'll often find that when people get something figure out a pattern they have like a pleasure response which is the opioid system but when they're seeking pleasure they have the doping system which is in that's extreme forms what we have addictive behaviors where you're doing something you may not even be getting pleasure out of it you just can't sort of stop doing it and you know and then the one thing that causes addictive behaviors and. Reinforcement is something called intermittent reinforcement so you know when somebody you like has a lot of hits and misses you know I you know a lot of time supporters don't like everything he does. You know that can that can certainly affect their don't mean system and make them. More compulsive about you know their activity toward Trump because it's helpful yet I also think there's probably some oxytocin involved like bonding together with the like group it's all explained by chemicals but yeah well at some level Yeah well what will you know Jim wouldn't that also be the case I know this is something that you've observed that whole question of like seeing people see the face of Jesus in a tortilla or on the side of an elm tree or something like that the face of Jesus clearly Well I think I think probably isn't there so but I assume that's also come across as right there getting some reward for seeing that so what's really interesting about that is you know we do see patterns where there aren't any but notice that you never look at a picture of Jesus and think you see toast. So what's happening is that what we Miss Maitland makes them particular direction you never ever walk in a zoo and look at a tiger cage and say oh my god I thought that was a bag of garbage you know it's always you mistake it for the things that are could potentially help or hurt you. And something is particularly meaningful for you like a dead body lying in the road or if a. Jesus or your mother you know something really good or bad that's what you think the error is for us or always seeking out things that are good and bad for us and that's the direction with which we make these mistakes and learned of the people who have I don't mean find more patterns so what they'll do is as an experiment where they have they should people degraded faces which means it's so pixilated that you can barely tell it is a face they are not and people have hired opening and interestingly people who are more religious see more faces than skeptics they also see faces more faces that aren't there and if you give skeptics still something they start seeing faces as though they were religious. Mike do you want to call Steven Wright with the Jesus toast joke or should I call him or I mean somebody should talk to her right about this and about oh yeah go ahead but yeah I was going to say that we are definitely see faces in the cloud but maybe this explains my greets genius he was the 1st to put a cloud on someone's face right and I also assume that there are chickens who have sort of some superstitions about how to avoid Wade Boggs but. But so Mike I want to come back to the inside. So I want to come back to this sort of notion of loss of faith in patterns so I was like you and like a lot of people very in a number of big data and the idea of big data being able to predict certain things and I certainly was a huge subscriber to the theories of observations espoused by need silver and other people at 538 and now I'm looking about what they say what they say about Marine Le Pen in the French election where need silver is saying that Marine Le Pen is quote I think in a much deeper hole than Trump ever was and I'm thinking what do I care what do I care about what I mean and I want to ask both of you but I'll start with you Mike I mean that's we're back to that kind of punch in the stomach that kind of loss in faith at least for me in these kinds of things well I think that we have to rebut a hyper rational world view or positing of how the world works which is 538 you know 64 percent chance with more rationality not with the idea nothing matters anymore and you know if you look at the polls this 60 whatever percent chance that 530 it was very conservative about giving trump it was all based on him being everyone knew that the polls show that he was within 4 or 5 percent and almost everyone knows what a margin of error meant so it's not so ridiculous to say let us compare that set of very good and well done polls versus the set of polls in France which shows Marine Le Pen behind monumentally right Trump was never behind in the polls and. Republican race he was only a little bit behind in the Democratic race when these things still have salience and the last thing I'd say about Nate is like are we sure he's wrong he said that Hillary Clinton had 60 something percent chance of winning how do we know is wrong things that happened 35 percent of the time happened like a 3rd of the time right that's called calibration I think in in the. Even if it could be true that Hillary Clinton had a 90 percent chance of winning just as trying one doesn't mean that there wasn't a 90 percent chance it would have been Hillary we can't help with just one outcome what the chance but all we know is what happened. Right and I think one of the things that it has led to is this kind of fake agnosticism. You know you probably followed over the weekend the debut of Bret Stephens and his column in The New York Times and he begins that way he begins with this incredible falls equivalencies talking about all the ways in which Hillary Clinton was supposedly locked in to win this election and it didn't happen and then making a transfer of that to climate science saying you know if you keep it can't achieve a certainty either and therefore we shouldn't pay any attention to it yeah we do this all the time I mean I was just having this conversation with my girlfriend who likes acupuncture I'm sure fine I'll take acupuncture and then she did this thing called Applied can easy ology where someone like puts a vial of sugar on your stomach and touches your arm and I said that's crazy honey and she said that's what people said about acupuncture and so we're getting the same thing with Trump right this is crazy to think this unlikely event could happen crazy like they said Trump couldn't win yeah I guess I mean sorry I could spend the next hour explaining the difference in the craziness but I think I'm already talking to you know a mindset that is not the most receptive to empiricism Jim Davies I last thing I want to ask you about is is streaks things a lot of things happening in a row you know something some streaks are random some are not so random the Yukon women's basketball team put together an incredible streak of wins but you know we knew at some point that that streak was going to end and then it did this year so my finals of it. All championships but other streaks are when them let's hear well into the beginning of Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead you're going to see he said I think you see Rosenkranz flipping a coin. That's. That's. It. Hag's. Well just think of the future. It's the normal thing. To house while one is optional having one of the ties now and now. And now it could go on forever. Well. Not forever I suppose. That's a Benedict Cumberbatch actually he's Rosencrantz So Jim Davies one of the things that we have all kinds of implicit ideas about patterns and one of the things that stop Argos in that play is suggest that they're in some other place where it's just the coin is always going to come up heads but maybe it is going to sketch out what are fallacies are against the realities of streaks when in fact outcome is completely random not determined by our athletic ability or something like that right so 1st of all people are really bad at knowing what's random and what's not and people think that any. Well not any streak but people different how many for example how many heads in a row what would you have to get on a coin for you to start being suspicious that there was a trick merged with it was not fair coin and people different what that number is but in general everybody's number is less than what it should be because if you were to flip a coin a 100 times and list the head and tail there would be many more Longstreet than you would have guessed so people think there's a pattern right away and so we should all be part of our psychological immune system we should all be very cautious when we think we see a pattern because there probably isn't. Enough even goes for 1st thinking we see patterns of prediction not coming true. You know when you might think all lately there's been a lot of predictions that come into well maybe not it could be the result of a completely random process but it happened to be in a street that's meaningless right all of a sudden we are lighting on what happened in the e.p.l. Which we never would of except some of the usual thing happened in the e.p.l. That's the English Premier League Also I'd add to it that we're really bad just in terms of intuiting math especially I find especially with events happening in a row so I was watching this n.b.a. Game where there was an 80 percent foul shooter and twice down the stretch he was fouled and he made 2 and then the next time down he made one of 2 So in other words he missed one out of 4 foul shots and then answer said Oh you don't expect that from an 80 percent sure yes you do the odds of an 80 percent of your hitting all 4 are you know only around 40 percent so we don't understand things in a row happen no we don't all right well we do understand that we have to stop here or go to a break and come back and talk to a physicist about all this one of the Jim Davies I want to thank Mike Pesca make sure you listen to the just his wonderful show and you'll find out exactly how many ideas I do steal from my and I just want to say sometimes I'm not completely aware that I'm doing that all right we'll be back after this thanks Mike. Thanks for supporting the Collin McEnroe show on n.p.r. 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You'll see a Facebook now stream it will be live coterminous with a show of interpreters during our show on American Sign Language we're trying to do what we call radio for the deaf which we understand most people have never tried to do in fact nobody is to as far as we can talk anyway the last thing we want to talk about here today as we look at this whole question of unexpected outcomes seemingly improbable outcomes is what we know about it at the level of mathematics and science Joining us now is it is Leonard Mlodinow there just say that right load no not mud no God no I did knew a very good job at a physicist science writer and the author of several books including The Drunkard's Walk How Randomness Rules are a lot of sense subliminal how your unconscious mind rules your behavior I want to start with the notion and there is such a notion that has a big kicking around for centuries that if we knew everything if we knew everything about every particle in the universe we could know everything that was going to happen in other words all of the things that we've talked about on this show today things that seem random surprising unexpected would in fact assume a much more predictable kind of form what's the state of scientific thinking about that. Well in our macroscopic world the world that we live in that's absolutely true so if you knew what we call the state of the system that is where every little particle is and what speed it's at it's moving at or whether it's standing still at a particular moment and you knew Newton's laws which govern that and you had a big enough computer that could grind through those laws and through all the equations and you could predict both the future and the past to whatever after so you'd like to however far out you'd like to predict it now in reality what we learn about the world is that we don't have control over the over the system to to have the conditions be whatever we might want them to be or the knowledge of what they actually are or a computer big enough just a calculation so in reality even though in principle everything is determined and that's why it's called determinism and actuality it's not and we're just in the dark now on another level that goes a macroscopic level that that governs the physics of the objects we interact with in everyday life and if you look at the deeper level and the atomic level it works a little bit differently and there is the famous quantum randomness by the quantum randomness and systems that have been made of many particles like your body or baseball or whatever other macroscopic objects you encounter in everyday life in those objects. Many particle objects are made of many quantum particles that quantum nature washes out and we are left with Newton's law so they may as well across nature may as well not even be there at doesn't affect us in our everyday life right it doesn't affect their words quanta behavior doesn't affect the flight of a baseball and now it doesn't know what effects you know everyday life in the sense that scientists who design computers use the quantum laws on the chips that are inside the computer but didn't and things are bigger than those nano particles kind of scales chips doesn't affect us although the other thing that I wondered about in this is a little wooed too and probably doesn't hold up that well in reality is the so called measurement problem right so that we know that. Measurement can. Sort of speak collapse wave form under certain circumstances and there's even a theory among physicists that it has something to do with consciousness and though I mean very few this is subscribed to that but there is kind of a sub theory about that that it's almost as though reality resists being measured I assume 1st of all to whatever extent that's true it's all also only true at the quantum of practice so that it people puzzle philosophers puzzle about quantum theory and in the time that we have it's hard to really get into it too deeply but . When the quantum theory was 1st invented there was that measurement problem because the people who invented it invented a theory that describe an experiment that somebody is doing so the spearmen is Quantum the person who is doing it and measuring it is classical is macroscopic and there was this border between the 2 that's just the way the theory was originally invented we we've kind of learned to go past that now it's still a philosophical problem but it's not at all a problem in applying the Seri and it certainly isn't a problem when you look at everyday life and people talk about consciousness and quantum theory are our misguided because the brain is. Pretty much exclusively a classical system it's to. The processes that go on involve too many particles is too high a temperature for quantum effects to be very important then talking and quantum way about the brain because. We can talk about that all day. Out there I'm not saying that you can't interact with the brain and in quantum. Ways like m.r.i. Machines do that they use quantum theory to interact with certain molecules in the brain but in normal brain processes neurons firing that those are classical but I'm also salute let's get out of the quantum realm and then I'll go into this one when we talk about the human brain the human mind I mean 1st of all people are very interested in the question of free will do they have free will. I'll just outside question I mean scientific or scientific understanding of free will well that's a matter of opinion but scientist almost every scientist believes that nature that the world is governed by law and that there's nothing outside of the laws of nature that govern what happens in the world and if you believe that then you have to believe in a kind of determinism which precludes free will. Because if you believe in the laws of nature govern your brain let's say that. The future of your brain is determined by its present and the application of those laws there's no room for your brain to make either decision a or decision be based on. Sol or outside force making a decision it's all. It's all the result of processes in your brain that are governed by the laws of nature but on the other hand we have the illusion of free will and Stephen Hawking I wrote a book and we called it we called it effect of Fairy because effectively you have free will because it feels like you have free will because you cannot do those calculations you cannot know what your brain is going to do and so it's moving ahead based on things that you don't know and terms of your experience and your feelings of the world it's just as if we have free will but against this demon that knows everything all knowing all powerful calculator that that demon would be able to actually tell you in a vast 10 years from now Leonard you're going to be crossing the street a car is going to be coming and are going to jump out of that we are going to decide to jump out of the way. No I can't know that however you can't know that but you do believe I mean you know in the words the bio mechanistic view of consciousness basically says we just don't know. Everything that we need to know but if we did know everything that we needed to know about human consciousness there would be nothing about it that we couldn't explain but where you are right right in so that does mean that yes at some level not at the level of what you can know but what the what the level of what this you know meant a macro demon could that the things are for ordained there is there or there really isn't any way for you to get out of the way of that car. Well there is where there is a real to what you will do but you know that doesn't mean that. Your brain is a complicated object and if you have conscious thought and decision and you have unconscious your unconscious mind that I wrote about and subliminal and that's I wrote that because that's a huge has a huge effect on you and makes you do things that you don't realize while you're doing them. Since you don't exactly know what the influences are that you're at cause you to do things since they are all logical decisions that really feels like free will. The Another term that comes up here and I'm sorry for making you take us on a cook's tour of modern science but obviously people have kind of a vague idea chaos theory or the butterfly effect in terms of the predictability of life in terms of trying to understand why certain things happen or be able to know in advance that certain things will happen chaos theory helpful or more helpful at helping us recognize how hard it is to understand these things. Well I think for most people chaos is help the chaos there is helpful only in that it it does point out to you how difficult it is to predict things. Excuse me what caste theory tells us that there are certain systems where if what you know about them is not is that completely precise if you're off by a small amount then those systems will behave quite differently. The behavior in the future will differ by a large amount that's called a chaotic system and the weather is like that and that's why we have trouble predicting the weather the laws that govern the weather don't have to worry about quantum laws I mean the laws of gases and. The dynamics of temperature and how different gases interact with heat is quite well known the problem is it's a huge system with many many many many avenues in it and that the laws are complicated enough that if you make a small change to let's say your measurement of what the temperatures and pressures are all over the state and there's a small and you're off by a little bit that will cause a huge change in your prediction of the weather tomorrow or 10 days from now so that's that's that's a chaotic system those systems are very hard to predict any distance into the future you might be able to predict them 5 minutes from now with the weather or not to that for tomorrow but because of the sensitivity to our knowledge of the conditions today our ability to predict things a week from now I was very poor All right so. 1st of all I want to thank you so much for giving us your time Leonard Mlodinow scientist science writer physicist and the author of several books including The Drunkard's Walk How Randomness Rules our lives and subliminal how your unconscious mind rules your behavior we're going to have to stop there one thing that I would just sort of say by way of wrapping up this whole long complicated conversation is you know sort of going back to what Mike and I were talking about at the beginning we measure more things these days I mean because of big data because of neat silver and all of his imitators we measure more things these days and the more things that we measure the more times the measurement will turn out to be misleading or that the predictive qualities of the measurement were kind of the way we thought they were going to work and also that notion of calibration if you're measuring a 90 percent probability of something that still means that there's a 10 percent probability would be weird if it never happened if there were a 10 percent probability and that's something that I think we find very hard to understand all right we hope this helped doesn't really help you make a Kentucky Derby but all 3 producers of the show worked on this as did Wolfie Thanks to all of you and will be back tomorrow. 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