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Stock Market Breakout Or Breakdown – What Does The Next Big Trend Look Like? :: The Market Oracle ::

Have you ever heard someone say “90% of people that trade options lose money.”? I certainly have. Looking at an options chain can be a dizzying exercise for the uninformed. Delta, Gamma, Theta, Rho, Vega – and let’s not forget – implied volatility? Single, spread, butterfly, condor. What does it all mean?  So what is an option from a high level view?  At the end of the day, an options contract is just a derivative like any other stock, bond, ETF, or other tradable securit...

In Part I of this research article, I tried to highlight the major market cycle phases that often drive volatility, uncertainty, and bigger trends in the US/Global markets as well as Precious Metals.  Additionally, my team and I highlighted the technical confluence pattern that has setup as Gold prices have rallied above downward sloping price channels (price Flags) recently.  This confluence of technical patterns, while we are transitioning into a post-COVID-19 global economy, ...

Stock Market Cycles Tipping From Euphoria To Complacency – Gold Setting Up For Rally Above $2000 Again? :: The Market Oracle ::

If you’ve been following my recent research posts, you already know my research team and I are expecting some very big volatility and trends in the US and global markets over the next 12 to 48 months.  The US Dollar Index fell below a critical support level above 90 recently.  This move lower after attempting to bottom in early 2021 suggests our broad Appreciation/Depreciation cycle phase research is continuing to play out.  This means we should start to prepare for bigger tre...

We recently completed some interesting research related to one of our newest Custom Indexes – the Commodities to Smart Cash Index (C2SC Heat Index) – weighted by the US Dollar and VIX.  We’ve been reviewing this new index for months watching it to see how it reacts to various trends in Lumber, Gold, Treasury Yields, the Smart Cash Index, and other weighted values.  Recently, we added the Fed Funds Rate to this chart and suddenly things took on a different perspective. We had...

If the face of last week’s sideways price action and almost in a rebellious manner today (May 4, 2021), the Transportation Index is moving higher while the US major indexes are all broadly lower.  VIX has shot up over 20 again (over +13% higher) and the NASDAQ is off by more than 300 points (-2.75%) as I write this article.  Yet, the Transportation Index is bucking the trends and trading higher. What Does It Mean When The Transportation Index Bucks The Major Index Trends? My team ...

Before going into detail regarding my latest research and cycle phases, I want you to think of these cycle phases as Advancing and Declining cycle trends.  They act as a “build-up of trend”, then an “unwinding of trend”.  In each instance, trends can be either Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral in nature.  My research team and I believe a new Bullish Cycle Phase has begun in Gold and Silver.  If our research is correct, the next Advancing Cycle Phase may prompt a broad rally i...

We have experienced an incredible rally in many sectors over the past 5+ months.  My research team has been pouring over the charts trying to identify how the next few weeks and months may play out in terms of continued trending or risks of some price volatility setting up.  We believe the Utilities Sector may hold the key to understanding how and when the US markets will reach some level of stronger resistance as many sector ETFs are trading in new all-time high price ranges. Uti...

A recent Forbes article highlights the incredible increase in market leverage since the start of the COVID-19 crisis.  There has never been a time in recent history where market leverage has reached these extreme levels.  Additionally, highly leveraged market peaks are typically associated with asset bubbles.  The easy money policies and global central bank actions have prompted one of the longest easy money market rallies in history.  Historically low interest rates, US Federal...